As we prepare for the upcoming Talladega race this weekend, it’s not a bad idea to look at how drivers have performed on the restrictor plate tracks thus far in 2018. Typically we have seen that if a car is good in the first couple of plate tracks in a season, it’s going to be fast in the final two as well. Now, obviously the probability for wrecks is very high at tracks like Talladega and Daytona, so looking at some of these statistics aren’t going to tell you the full story, but with practice and qualifying carrying significantly less weight than normal this weekend, these are some numbers that we can rely on to make more educated guesses when making our Fantasy NASCAR picks this weekend.
The charts below have taken into account the two points-paying Daytona races in 2018 as well as the first Talladega race and averaged the results. You can click on the column headers to sort by that attribute.
Best Average Finish on Restrictor Plate Tracks This Season
| Driver | Avg. Finish | Avg. Start | Avg. Place Differential | Avg. Running Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Buescher | 07.0 | 23.7 | 16.7 | 17.7 |
| Ryan Newman | 08.3 | 12.7 | 04.3 | 13.0 |
| Darrell Wallace, Jr | 10.7 | 14.7 | 04.0 | 13.0 |
| Alex Bowman | 11.7 | 04.7 | -07.0 | 09.3 |
| Justin Marks | 12.0 | 29.0 | 17.0 | 27.0 |
| David Gilliland | 14.0 | 39.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Joey Logano | 14.7 | 08.3 | -06.3 | 15.7 |
| Aric Almirola | 15.0 | 34.3 | 19.3 | 16.7 |
| Austin Dillon | 15.0 | 16.0 | 01.0 | 16.7 |
| Martin Truex, Jr | 15.3 | 13.3 | -02.0 | 16.0 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 15.7 | 24.0 | 08.3 | 18.3 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 16.0 | 30.5 | 14.5 | 23.5 |
| David Ragan | 17.0 | 16.0 | -01.0 | 22.3 |
| Ricky Stenhouse, Jr | 17.0 | 07.3 | -09.7 | 12.0 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 17.7 | 33.3 | 15.7 | 20.7 |
| Kevin Harvick | 18.0 | 04.0 | -14.0 | 14.3 |
| Denny Hamlin | 18.3 | 07.7 | -10.7 | 19.3 |
| Kasey Kahne | 18.3 | 26.7 | 08.3 | 20.3 |
| DJ Kennington | 19.0 | 32.0 | 13.0 | 26.7 |
| Ty Dillon | 20.0 | 23.7 | 03.7 | 22.3 |
| Brendan Gaughan | 20.7 | 23.7 | 03.0 | 19.7 |
| Paul Menard | 21.3 | 19.7 | -01.7 | 15.7 |
| Kurt Busch | 21.7 | 12.0 | -09.7 | 17.0 |
| Ryan Blaney | 21.7 | 12.7 | -09.0 | 15.3 |
| Gray Gaulding | 22.0 | 35.5 | 13.5 | 28.0 |
| Mark Thompson | 22.0 | 40.0 | 18.0 | 31.0 |
| Michael McDowell | 22.3 | 16.7 | -05.7 | 15.3 |
| Clint Bowyer | 22.7 | 09.0 | -13.7 | 20.0 |
| Ross Chastain | 23.0 | 34.0 | 11.0 | 28.5 |
| Timothy Peters | 23.0 | 32.0 | 09.0 | 30.0 |
| Chase Elliott | 23.3 | 03.3 | -20.0 | 20.0 |
| Kyle Busch | 23.7 | 15.3 | -08.3 | 21.3 |
| Trevor Bayne | 23.7 | 19.7 | -04.0 | 19.7 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 24.3 | 18.3 | -06.0 | 18.3 |
| Jamie McMurray | 24.7 | 24.3 | -00.3 | 25.7 |
| Erik Jones | 25.3 | 14.3 | -11.0 | 25.0 |
| Joey Gase | 26.0 | 35.0 | 09.0 | 25.5 |
| Daniel Suarez | 27.3 | 21.0 | -06.3 | 25.7 |
| William Byron | 28.0 | 22.7 | -05.3 | 18.7 |
| Kyle Larson | 29.3 | 24.7 | -04.7 | 21.3 |
| 72 car | 30.7 | 35.3 | 04.7 | 30.0 |
| Brad Keselowski | 33.7 | 14.7 | -19.0 | 20.7 |
| Timmy Hill | 36.0 | 39.0 | 03.0 | 36.0 |
| Reed Sorenson | 37.0 | 38.0 | 01.0 | 38.0 |
Best Average Driver Rating on Restrictor Plate Tracks This Season
| Driver | Avg. Driver Rating | Avg. Finish | % Laps Ran in Top 15 | Avg. Laps Led Per Race | Avg. Fastest Laps Per Race |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 98.9 | 14.7 | 63.03% | 24.3 | 02.7 |
| Alex Bowman | 98.3 | 11.7 | 82.30% | 13.3 | 04.7 |
| Ricky Stenhouse, Jr | 97.1 | 17.0 | 61.97% | 22.0 | 05.0 |
| Ryan Blaney | 97.0 | 21.7 | 63.47% | 39.3 | 03.7 |
| Kevin Harvick | 94.0 | 18.0 | 55.40% | 06.7 | 04.3 |
| Darrell Wallace, Jr | 85.1 | 10.7 | 62.70% | 01.7 | 03.0 |
| Ryan Newman | 84.4 | 08.3 | 66.93% | 00.3 | 06.3 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 84.2 | 24.3 | 52.60% | 03.3 | 05.3 |
| Kurt Busch | 83.3 | 21.7 | 55.33% | 07.0 | 06.7 |
| Paul Menard | 81.6 | 21.3 | 56.73% | 03.0 | 06.7 |
| Denny Hamlin | 81.5 | 18.3 | 49.17% | 11.0 | 05.7 |
| Michael McDowell | 81.2 | 22.3 | 52.40% | 06.7 | 05.0 |
| Austin Dillon | 79.3 | 15.0 | 44.77% | 00.3 | 05.3 |
| Martin Truex, Jr | 78.7 | 15.3 | 51.73% | 08.0 | 05.3 |
| Aric Almirola | 77.7 | 15.0 | 47.27% | 00.3 | 06.0 |
| Chase Elliott | 77.6 | 23.3 | 43.27% | 05.0 | 02.0 |
| Chris Buescher | 73.9 | 07.0 | 47.87% | 00.3 | 03.3 |
| Kyle Larson | 70.8 | 29.3 | 35.13% | 00.0 | 03.0 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 69.4 | 15.7 | 40.80% | 01.3 | 03.3 |
| William Byron | 69.3 | 28.0 | 39.80% | 08.7 | 03.7 |
| Kyle Busch | 69.1 | 23.7 | 40.93% | 00.3 | 03.7 |
| 72 car | 68.2 | 22.7 | 37.73% | 00.7 | 04.3 |
| Brad Keselowski | 67.9 | 33.7 | 41.77% | 10.0 | 02.3 |
| David Ragan | 67.8 | 17.0 | 23.50% | 00.0 | 06.0 |
| Ty Dillon | 67.1 | 20.0 | 39.00% | 01.0 | 02.3 |
| Erik Jones | 65.8 | 25.3 | 23.83% | 04.0 | 03.7 |
| Trevor Bayne | 65.8 | 23.7 | 38.03% | 00.0 | 04.3 |
| Brendan Gaughan | 59.3 | 20.7 | 32.13% | 00.3 | 03.3 |
| Kasey Kahne | 58.6 | 18.3 | 40.87% | 06.0 | 04.0 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 57.8 | 17.7 | 24.73% | 02.0 | 03.0 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 55.0 | 16.0 | 5.80% | 00.0 | 02.0 |
| Daniel Suarez | 54.9 | 27.3 | 26.10% | 00.3 | 03.0 |
| Jamie McMurray | 53.8 | 24.7 | 14.33% | 00.0 | 02.7 |
| Justin Marks | 52.3 | 12.0 | 4.40% | 01.0 | 03.0 |
| David Gilliland | 50.2 | 14.0 | 5.80% | 00.0 | 03.0 |
| Joey Gase | 48.3 | 26.0 | 15.50% | 00.0 | 03.0 |
| DJ Kennington | 47.9 | 19.0 | 8.67% | 00.0 | 01.0 |
| Ross Chastain | 47.6 | 23.0 | 1.50% | 00.0 | 03.5 |
| Timothy Peters | 45.1 | 23.0 | 0.00% | 00.0 | 02.0 |
| Gray Gaulding | 43.6 | 22.0 | 5.05% | 00.0 | 00.5 |
| Mark Thompson | 39.7 | 22.0 | 0.00% | 00.0 | 00.0 |
| Clint Bowyer | 35.7 | 30.7 | 5.33% | 00.0 | 01.3 |
| Timmy Hill | 28.6 | 36.0 | 0.00% | 00.0 | 00.0 |
| Reed Sorenson | 25.0 | 37.0 | 0.00% | 00.0 | 00.0 |
