It’s time to lock another Championship driver into Phoenix… maybe. The NASCAR Cup Series is at Kansas Speedway this weekend for the Hollywood Casino 400. We last raced here in May of this year and if you remember back to that race, it was Kyle Larson (big surprise, huh?) who dominated most of it. He had some issues on the final restart, though, and ended up finishing mid-pack while Kyle Busch won the race. Still, Larson had the best car in that race, and has had the best car on this track type in 2021 as well. He’s the heavy favorite to win according to sportsbooks, and the algorithm predicts Larson to be in victory lane on Sunday as well.
If you’d like to support the site you can do so by donating here.
How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.
Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers
Joey Logano – Joey Logano is the defending winner of this particular Kansas race, but this #22 team is going to have to bring their A+++ game on Sunday if they want to contend again. Logano just hasn’t had the speed at the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season. His best finish in the five races on this track type has been 9th, and that’s also his only top 10. In the eleven races with the 550hp package this season, Joey has zero top 5s and only two top 10s. Additionally, over the last five Kansas races, Logano has only had a driver rating above 85 once. What I’m getting at here is that even the algorithm projecting him 9th on Sunday could be a little too generous.
Daniel Suarez – Don’t sleep on Daniel Suarez this weekend as a lower-tier NASCAR Fantasy option. He’s coming off of a 10th-place finish in the Texas race last weekend, and back here at Kansas in May, the #99 Chevrolet crossed the finish line in 11th when it was all said and done. Looking at the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season, Suarez has four finishes inside the top 15, and he’s finished inside that mark in seven of the eleven 550hp package races. He’s not going to go out and win Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 but I see no reason why Suarez couldn’t sneak in a top 10 if everything goes right.
Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order
| Rank | Driver | Power Index |
| 1. | Larson, Kyle | 38.57 |
| 2. | Hamlin, Denny | 37.93 |
| 3. | Busch, Kyle | 36.60 |
| 4. | Byron, William | 36.13 |
| 5. | Blaney, Ryan | 34.94 |
| 6. | Elliott, Chase | 34.81 |
| 7. | Keselowski, Brad | 32.77 |
| 8. | Harvick, Kevin | 32.43 |
| 9. | Logano, Joey | 30.66 |
| 10. | Truex, Jr., Martin | 29.56 |
| 11. | Reddick, Tyler | 25.31 |
| 12. | Bowman, Alex | 24.60 |
| 13. | Bell, Christopher | 23.75 |
| 14. | Busch, Kurt | 23.46 |
| 15. | Dillon, Austin | 22.35 |
| 16. | DiBenedetto, Matt | 18.20 |
| 17. | Buescher, Chris | 15.76 |
| 18. | Jones, Erik | 10.85 |
| 19. | Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky | 09.66 |
| 20. | Wallace, Bubba | 04.42 |
| 21. | Briscoe, Chase | -01.71 |
| 22. | Suarez, Daniel | -05.47 |
| 23. | McDowell, Michael | -13.29 |
| 24. | Almirola, Aric | -14.76 |
| 25. | Chastain, Ross | -15.24 |
| 26. | Newman, Ryan | -20.44 |
| 27. | Custer, Cole | -20.47 |
| 28. | Preece, Ryan | -20.51 |
| 29. | Kligerman, Parker | -26.35 |
| 30. | Alfredo, Anthony | -26.45 |
| 31. | LaJoie, Corey | -28.53 |
| 32. | Haley, Justin | -30.63 |
| 33. | McLeod, BJ | -34.65 |
| 34. | Ware, Cody | -35.74 |
| 35. | Houff, Quin | -36.81 |
| 36. | Gase, Joey | -37.97 |
| 37. | Bilicki, Josh | -38.05 |
| 38. | Ellis, Ryan | -38.77 |
| 39. | Starr, David | -40.14 |
| 40. | Finchum, Chad | -41.22 |
