The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the second time this season for the Quaker State 400 on Sunday afternoon. It’s going to be hot and slick on this old, worn out race track, and this race is scheduled for 100 less miles than the first Atlanta race this season (back in March). If you remember back to that event, Kyle Larson pretty much dominated the whole thing but Ryan Blaney ended up winning it late. There’s no reason to think that Larson isn’t the most likely to dominate again here on Sunday, and my algorithm agrees he’s the guy to beat. That is a great tool to check out when making picks, and you can click here to look at that. Now let’s get to the FanDuel projections!
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Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal FanDuel lineup for Atlanta 2 according to my Projections is:
- Kyle Larson
- William Byron
- Ryan Blaney
- Chris Buescher
- Ryan Newman
Confidence Rating = 6.5/10. Two Hendrick Chevrolets, two Roush-Fenway Fords, and the most recent race winner at Atlanta. I like it for tournaments, especially if Buescher can sneak in a top 10, but I don’t love the lineup. Obviously Kevin Harvick and Alex Bowman are right there in my Projections with Ryan Blaney and William Byron, so you could interchange two of those four. The top lineup if you run it with my ceiling projections is: Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, Austin Dillon, and Ryan Newman. I like that one a lot more.
FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Atlanta 2 (Cash Lineups)
Ryan Blaney ($10,500) – Of the drivers priced $10k and above on FanDuel this weekend, Ryan Blaney is projected to be the best value play of the “big guns.” This season on the “high-wear” tracks, Young Ryan Blaney won here at Atlanta, finished 8th at Darlington, and had a disappointing 29th at Homestead, but he has the 5th-best average running position in the series over those three races. Additionally, Blaney ranks 8th in average running position over the five 550hp intermediate races this season. Over the last three years at Atlanta specifically, Ryan has the 3rd-best average running position, behind only Kyle Larson and Martin Truex, Jr. Blaney will start 15th on Sunday and has solid top 5 finishing potential.
Ryan Newman ($5,800) – Both DFS sites made Ryan Newman way too chalky this weekend at Atlanta. Barring a mechanical issue or a wreck, “The Rocketman” is going to crush value on Sunday. Here at Atlanta, he’s finished 13th, 14th, and 13th in the three races with the 550hp package, and that includes his 13th-place run here back in March despite starting 28th. This weekend, Newman is starting from back in 29th. If his record here at Atlanta isn’t enough to get you to believe in Newman, he’s got an average finish of 10.0 over three “high-wear” intermediate races this season, and an average finish of 16.2 in five 550hp intermediate events. His 27th at Charlotte is Newman’s only result outside of the top 18 over those five races.
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Atlanta 2 (Tournament Lineups)
Kurt Busch ($9,000) – As RotoDoc and I discussed on this week’s episode the Stacking Dennys podcast (click here to listen), the Chip Ganassi cars have both been super fast ever since that little mishap at Charlotte, and we all know what Kurt Busch can do when he has a fast race car. Momentum-wise, this #1 team has finished 4th, 20th, 6th, 8th, and 6th over the last five races, and here at Atlanta back in March Kurt was running solidly inside the top 5 for most of the day before he got wrecked by Denny Hamlin on a restart. His previous five Atlanta finishes? 6th, 3rd, 8th, 7th, and 4th.
Chris Buescher ($7,300) – Chris Buescher is in my projected optimal lineup this weekend, but even with that designation, his projected points aren’t high enough for an optimizer to shove him in more than 20% of lineups when you run 150. Add in the fact that he starts 18th and is $7,300 and I think Buescher will be relatively low-owned on FanDuel this weekend. However, this guy has an average finish of 12.7 over the last three Atlanta races, an average finish of 11.7 over the three “high-wear” track races this season, and an average finish of 11.2 in the 550hp package on intermediates in 2021. He finished 7th here back in March. Another run like that and Chris Buescher could easily help someone take down a FanDuel GPP on Sunday.
FanDuel Driver Projections for the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | FanDuel Salary | Avg Proj Pts | Starting Position | Ceiling Proj Pts | Dollar Per Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | $14,500 | 77.92 | 6 | 86.50 | $186 |
| William Byron | $11,500 | 70.92 | 19 | 80.10 | $162 |
| Kevin Harvick | $11,700 | 68.65 | 21 | 75.70 | $170 |
| Kyle Busch | $13,000 | 68.25 | 2 | 74.90 | $190 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,500 | 68.05 | 15 | 78.60 | $154 |
| Denny Hamlin | $12,200 | 67.30 | 3 | 74.30 | $181 |
| Alex Bowman | $11,000 | 67.00 | 17 | 80.00 | $164 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $12,500 | 60.72 | 5 | 68.60 | $206 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,000 | 57.25 | 13 | 64.50 | $140 |
| Brad Keselowski | $12,000 | 56.50 | 14 | 68.00 | $212 |
| Ryan Newman | $5,800 | 56.50 | 29 | 65.00 | $103 |
| Chris Buescher | $7,300 | 55.25 | 18 | 62.50 | $132 |
| Chase Elliott | $13,500 | 55.00 | 1 | 62.00 | $245 |
| Joey Logano | $10,000 | 54.25 | 10 | 58.50 | $184 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $6,000 | 53.50 | 16 | 58.50 | $112 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 53.20 | 8 | 65.70 | $169 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,000 | 51.75 | 12 | 58.00 | $135 |
| Tyler Reddick | $7,200 | 50.75 | 7 | 60.00 | $142 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,500 | 49.90 | 27 | 61.00 | $130 |
| Bubba Wallace | $5,500 | 48.65 | 24 | 58.00 | $113 |
| Ross Chastain | $7,500 | 47.75 | 9 | 61.00 | $157 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,500 | 47.25 | 4 | 57.50 | $180 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,000 | 47.15 | 25 | 52.50 | $106 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,800 | 45.40 | 20 | 56.00 | $150 |
| Ryan Preece | $4,000 | 44.30 | 34 | 48.00 | $90 |
| Cole Custer | $6,300 | 43.40 | 23 | 50.00 | $145 |
| Erik Jones | $4,500 | 42.80 | 22 | 51.00 | $105 |
| Corey LaJoie | $3,500 | 41.05 | 26 | 54.50 | $85 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,500 | 40.45 | 32 | 44.00 | $87 |
| Chase Briscoe | $5,000 | 38.15 | 11 | 45.50 | $131 |
| Justin Haley | $2,500 | 35.35 | 28 | 39.00 | $71 |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 34.50 | 37 | 39.00 | $58 |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,500 | 34.50 | 36 | 37.00 | $72 |
| Quin Houff | $3,000 | 33.75 | 35 | 39.50 | $89 |
| Cody Ware | $3,000 | 33.75 | 31 | 36.00 | $89 |
| Bayley Currey | $2,000 | 30.65 | 33 | 34.00 | $65 |
| Josh Bilicki | $3,000 | 28.55 | 30 | 34.00 | $105 |
