The Quaker State 400 is (hopefully) this Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and it should surprise nobody that Kyle Larson is the heavy favorite to win, according to sportsbooks. The last time we raced at Atlanta (back in March), Larson absolutely blew everyone else out of the water, but wasn’t able to save his tires enough on the last run and Ryan Blaney ended up stealing the victory. Still, Larson was the best here at Atlanta last race, and he’s been the best on the intermediates all season long. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t contend on Sunday.
Atlanta 2 Race Day Betting Card
#JordanJinx
Alex Bowman to Win (+1600) – The #JordanJinx hit hard last week at Road America, as it was on Austin Cindric (at 50-to-1 odds) and his car broke while battling for the lead. This weekend it is on Alex Bowman, who was available at 16-to-1 on FanDuel Sportsbook, which is a great value considering the Fantasy Racing Online algorithm has him predicted to finish 4th. Bowman is strong on these “high-wear” tracks and finished 3rd here at Atlanta back in March. Also, he has a knack for winning the “final” races at these “high-wear” venues, as Bowman was the last winner at both Chicagoland and Auto Club before the Cup Series stopped going to those tracks. I also bet some on Alex Bowman Top 5 Finish (+200).
Favorite Bet of the Day
Chris Buescher Top 20 Finish (-115) – DraftKings Sportsbook finally opened up top 20 betting odds for me and this is probably going to end up being a bad thing because I’m already obsessed with them. Buescher to finish top 20 was one of my earliest bets of this weekend, and after dumping 5.75 units on it on Friday, I’ve went back and dumped even more. My algorithm has Buescher projected to finish 15th here on Sunday, and he’s over 22 points in the Power Index over 20th-ranked Ryan Newman. On intermediate tracks this season, Buescher has finished 19th at Homestead, 14th at Las Vegas, 7th here at Atlanta, 8th at Kansas, and 8th at Charlotte.
Rest of Jordan’s Card
Kyle Busch to Win (+850) – If Kyle Larson doesn’t win the Quaker State 400 on Sunday, I think it’s going to be the other Kyle (Busch) in victory lane. Rowdy has been very solid on the intermediates this season–3rd at Vegas, 5th at Atlanta, win at Kansas, 3rd at Charlotte–and he’s won twice here at Atlanta before. My algorithm has Busch predicted to finish 2nd behind Larson this weekend, so at +850 odds, it’s worth throwing some down on Rowdy.
Kurt Busch Top 10 Finish (+110) – I really like how the Chip Ganassi Chevrolets are running right now, and even though Kurt Busch has disappointed fantasy owners (and bettors) quite a bit this season, if this #1 Chevrolet has solid speed again here at Atlanta on Sunday, I think he’s definitely going to be a top 10 threat. Remember, Kurt was running in or around the top 5 for most of the day here back in March before Denny Hamlin put him into the wall. Before that, Busch had a five-race streak of top 8 finishes here at Atlanta.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Top 20 Finish (-165) – Just following the algorithm here again. It has Stenhouse projected to finish 14th on Sunday, and is right there with Chris Buescher in the Power Index number. With Stenhouse having such shorter odds than Buescher, though, I don’t have nearly as much down on Ricky, but I still think this is a very good bet. Stenhouse has finished 13th or better in four of the five intermediate track races this season, including a 12th-place result here at Atlanta back in March. He’s also finished inside the top 20 in all but one of his nine career starts at this track, and 18th or better in each of the last six.
Matt DiBenedetto Top 20 Finish (+110) – Looking at the intermediate track races this season minus Homestead, DiBenedetto has been pretty good: 16th at Las Vegas, 11th at Atlanta, 4th at Kansas, and 18th at Charlotte. I personally don’t have a large amount on this bet for Sunday, but I do think there’s solid value there with the plus-money odds. DiBenedetto starts 12th for the Quaker State 400 and should be a very solid top 20 contender as long as nothing unexpected happens…
Ryan Newman Top 20 Finish (+150) – Based on intermediate track performance this season, this bet at +150 odds is of great value on Sunday. At these tracks in 2021, Ryan Newman has finished 7th at Homestead, 18th at Las Vegas, 13th at Atlanta, and 16th at Kansas, with his only blunder being at Charlotte (27th). At Atlanta specifically, Newman has finished 14th or better in each of the last three races. “The Rocketman” will start from back in 29th on Sunday but there’s plenty of time for him to gain nine or more spots.
