We’re celebrating America today with the Jockey Made in America 250 at Road America. Three instances of “America” in the same sentence, and it still makes sense! Anyway, this 14-turn, 4.048-mile race track is bound to give us some very good entertainment this Independence Day, or maybe a lot of headaches for fantasy players; if practice on Saturday was any indication, this race could easily turn into one of attrition. We have no track history to work with this weekend, and practice wasn’t super informative, so the algorithm is really just throwing all of the road courses together and letting it rip.
If you’d like to support the site you can do so by donating here.
How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.
Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers
Christopher Bell – This kid has been literally boom or bust in every Cup Series road course race he’s ran, and unfortunately for Christopher Bell fans, most of those starts have ended in busts. In the five Cup races he has ran on road courses, CBell has finished outside the top 20 in all but one of them: his win at Daytona Road Course earlier this year. Add in the fact that this #20 team has just result better than 14th in the last ten points-paying Cup Series racing, and it shouldn’t be surprising that the algorithm doesn’t love Bell this week. However, he won here at Road America in the Xfinity Series back in 2019 and had the best 5-lap average during the Cup practice this weekend. There’s dark horse potential there for sure.
Austin Cindric – The algorithm isn’t too impressed with Austin Cindric this weekend, but he’s actually one of the better road course racers in this race despite not being a full-time Cup Series driver, and he’s a previous winner at Road America (last year’s Xfinity race). As far as Cup Series experience, Cindric has made five starts this season and has yet to finish better than 15th. Obviously with that limited data set, as well as the limited road course data, the algorithm likely isn’t going to be too impressed with a driver like that. However, Cindric was strong at Circuit of the Americas earlier this year before it started raining, and he was strong in practice this weekend at Road America as well.
Jockey Made in America 250 at Road America Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order
| Rank | Driver | Power Index |
| 1. | Larson, Kyle | 31.62 |
| 2. | Hamlin, Denny | 31.29 |
| 3. | Truex, Jr., Martin | 29.89 |
| 4. | Elliott, Chase | 29.61 |
| 5. | Byron, William | 28.27 |
| 6. | Bowman, Alex | 28.07 |
| 7. | Allmendinger, AJ | 27.93 |
| 8. | Logano, Joey | 27.35 |
| 9. | Busch, Kyle | 26.65 |
| 10. | Harvick, Kevin | 23.27 |
| 11. | Blaney, Ryan | 22.26 |
| 12. | Busch, Kurt | 20.18 |
| 13. | Buescher, Chris | 19.95 |
| 14. | Keselowski, Brad | 17.30 |
| 15. | McDowell, Michael | 17.29 |
| 16. | Chastain, Ross | 17.26 |
| 17. | Reddick, Tyler | 10.45 |
| 18. | Cindric, Austin | 05.74 |
| 19. | Bell, Christopher | 04.57 |
| 20. | Jones, Erik | -03.12 |
| 21. | DiBenedetto, Matt | -05.41 |
| 22. | Briscoe, Chase | -09.27 |
| 23. | Almirola, Aric | -11.45 |
| 24. | Suarez, Daniel | -14.25 |
| 25. | Dillon, Austin | -15.06 |
| 26. | Custer, Cole | -23.22 |
| 27. | Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky | -22.22 |
| 28. | Newman, Ryan | -22.60 |
| 29. | Preece, Ryan | -26.81 |
| 30. | LaJoie, Corey | -27.09 |
| 31. | Wallace, Bubba | -27.54 |
| 32. | Alfredo, Anthony | -29.10 |
| 33. | Haley, Justin | -30.63 |
| 34. | Ware, Cody | -32.38 |
| 35. | Davison, James | -34.30 |
| 36. | Dillon, Ty | -34.62 |
| 37. | Bilicki, Josh | -36.02 |
| 38. | Houff, Quin | -36.35 |
| 39. | Tilley, Kyle | -36.57 |
| 40. | Eversley, Ryan | -37.56 |
