Pocono Saturday DraftKings NASCAR Picks, Projections, & Strategy Breakdown

It’s a doubleheader race weekend, with back-to-back events at Pocono Raceway on Saturday and Sunday. First up is the Pocono Organics 325 on Saturday, which is what this article will be focusing on. Sunday’s starting lineup will depend on how Saturday’s race ends up, and we’ll also have a good idea of which cars are the strongest at “The Tricky Triangle” this season. The starting order for this weekend’s first race was set by NASCAR’s qualifying formula, so Kyle Larson will be on the pole with William Byron rolling off 2nd, and you can check out the full starting lineup by clicking here. Now let’s goooo!!!!

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DraftKings Notes, Strategy, & Dominators for Pocono Saturday

Some quick notes when it comes to DraftKings strategy for Saturday’s race:

• These are both short races, especially Saturday’s event. The Pocono Organics CBD 325 is only scheduled to be 130 laps in length at this 2.5-mile race track, which means we’re looking at only 32.5 DraftKings FPTS for laps led and probably around 49.5 DraftKings FPTS for fastest laps (I’m expecting around 20-25 laps of caution).
• Typically we see 3 or 4 drivers with double digit fastest laps at Pocono, as well as 3 to 5 drivers lead a chunk of the race, simply because of how the strategies play out at this huge track. Of course, Kyle Larson is starting on the pole, so that could all go out the window, but that’s just typically what we see here.
• NASCAR is using the 550hp package this weekend, which was also used at these intermediates this season: Homestead, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Kansas, and Charlotte. None of those really compare well to Pocono, as they are all 1.5-mile tracks with decent banking and Pocono is a 2.5-mile flat track.
• The closest track to Pocono comparison-wise is Indianapolis. We aren’t racing there at the oval this season, and it was July of 2020 when we last visited that track. Last year’s two Pocono races were in June (back to back, like this weekend), so all comparable data is pretty much a year or more old.
• Goodyear is using this tire combination for both Pocono races: D-4928 on the left sides (raced at Darlington and Homestead this season) and then D-4960 on the right side (raced at Auto Club last season).

Dominators

These are the potential dominators for today’s race at Nashville, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:

• Kyle Larson
• William Byron
• Denny Hamlin
• Kyle Busch
• Kevin Harvick

Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex, Jr., Alex Bowman, and Chase Elliott.

Breakdown Video

Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Pocono Saturday according to my Projections is:

• Kyle Larson
• Denny Hamlin
• William Byron
• Erik Jones
• Cole Custer
• Ryan Newman

Confidence Rating = 5.4/10. I like this build for a GPP lineup with the goal of being different. A lot of people are going to gravitate toward the place differential plays on Saturday, which makes complete sense, but if it’s Larson and Byron as the two main dominators, and they both finish top 3, we could end up seeing those two in the optimal. Is it super likely? No, but it’s possible. The best non-Kyle Larson lineup according to the projections is: Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Matt DiBenedetto, Erik Jones, and Cole Custer.

GPP / Tournament Picks

William Byron ($9,000) – My projections absolutely love William Byron this weekend, and I don’t think he’s going to be a super popular pick in DraftKings so you know what that means: tournament play. Byron was good here at Pocono before he “got good” in this #24 Chevrolet–four finishes of 9th or better in his last five starts at “The Tricky Triangle”–and honestly it wouldn’t be too surprising if he ended up winning here on Saturday. Kyle Larson is going to lead a good chunk of the Pocono Organics CBD 325, but it’s really difficult to absolutely dominate at this track. Look for Byron to be a possible second dominator on Saturday.

Aric Almirola ($7,300) – This is setting up as a perfect weekend for Aric Almirola to be low-owned at one of his better tracks recently. At $7,300 in DraftKings and starting 11th, it’s already tough to stomach putting Almirola in your lineup, and then you add in the fact that he has killed fantasy lineups almost every single race in 2021. But look at where he’s done well: 11th at Phoenix (flat track), 6th at Richmond (flat track), and 4th at Nashville (flatter track). At Pocono, AA swept the top 5 last season and he’s finished 12th or better in five of the last six. Am I going to feel good about stuffing Almirola in lineups this Saturday? Absolutely not. Do I think he could help take down a tournament win? Yes I do.

Ross Chastain ($6,800) – If you listened to the first ever podcast episode of Stacking Dennys this week (click here if you haven’t), you knew this one was coming. Fresh off of a 2nd-place finish at Nashville last weekend, Ross Chastain is a very risky play in DFS since he’s starting up in 6th, but sometimes that’s what it takes to take down a tournament. Looking at track history, Chastain has 2nd-place finishes at Pocono in both the Xfinity and Truck Series, and in the Cup Series he was able to wheel the Premium Motorsports junkwagons to 28th- and 24th-place finishes in 2018 and 2019 here. Matt Kenseth was in this #42 Chevrolet last season, and he was able to finish 11th and 12th in the two Pocono races–which was better than normal for him–and then he posted a 2nd-place finish at Indianapolis as well (the only comparable track to Pocono). Don’t sleep on Chastain this weekend.

BONUS TOURNAMENT PICK: Daniel Suarez ($6,500) – I explained why in the DFS video this week (above). Suarez has ran well at Pocono in the past when he had solid equipment, and with him starting 14th, he should be decently low-owned since many players will be focused on place differential.

Cash Core Drivers

Chase Elliott ($11,000) – Thanks to his disqualification at Nashville, Chase Elliott is going to be starting way back in 29th on Saturday for the Pocono Organics CBD 325. Yep, cash play. At worst, Chase should be a top 10 car, but he has top 5 upside as well. Even with limited dominator potential–Elliott has just 5 fastest laps in his last four Pocono starts–he’s a safe place differential pick in DraftKings this weekend and a must have in cash lineups. Obviously there’s room there for strategy with tournament lineups, though. Looking at Pocono history, Chase has seven top 10s in ten career starts and pretty much finishes up there every time he doesn’t have issues mid-race.

Denny Hamlin ($9,700) – Denny Hamlin priced under $10k in DraftKings at Pocono when he’s starting 10th… what a world we live in. My algorithm predicts that Dennis is going to win Saturday’s race at “The Tricky Triangle” so of course he’s getting written up as a cash play. The #11 Toyota has came home 1st, 2nd, and 1st in the last three Cup Series races at Pocono, and overall, Hamlin is an 8-time podium finisher at this track. My only concern with Denny this week is how off JGR has been as of late (RotoDoc and I talked about this on the Stacking Dennys podcast), but Pocono has been a great track for the Gibbs cars and I think all four of them will flex their muscles again on Sunday.

Ryan Newman ($5,800) – I’m not sure what DraftKings was thinking when they priced Newman in the sub-$6,000 range this week (especially for Sunday’s race), but this is what we have to work with. The discount you get with Newman allows you to fit in the higher-dollar place differential plays or a dominator like Kyle Larson. Yeah, Newman starts 19th, so there’s a little bit of risk there, but he’s finished 18th or better in nine of his last ten starts at Pocono, and not that it matters much, but “The Rocketman” came home inside the top 10 at both Homestead and Darlington this year (Goodyear is bringing the same left side tire to use this weekend).

Pocono Saturday DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.