Nashville DraftKings NASCAR Picks, Projections, & Strategy Breakdown

We’re at Nashville Superspeedway this weekend, which is a brand new race track. There’s no historical data to go off of here, and there’s really no great comparison tracks to work with either. We did have practice this weekend and you can click here to see those speeds. As usual, Hendrick Motorsports was significantly better than everyone else. There was a big surprise in qualifying with Aric Almirola grabbing the pole, and you can check out the full starting lineup by clicking here. Also be sure to look at my Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race (click here). Now let’s goooo!!!! We don’t have much time before lock due to this awful same day qualifying schedule.

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DraftKings Notes, Strategy, & Dominators for Nashville

We don’t have much time between qualifying and the race this weekend so here are some bullet points notes for easy consumption:

• From what we saw in the Truck and Xfinity Series races, passing is going to be difficult at Nashville. This means track position is going to be a premium. We also saw that if a driver makes just one small mistake and misses his mark, he can lose a tenth or more off of his lap time. However, the Cup Series drivers are the best in the world; what’s going to be most important today is track position.
• Remember the Texas race last year that Austin Dillon won because he gambled on tire strategy? We could see the same thing happen today at Nashville. From what we saw in practice, it seems as though tires are wearing quite a bit on this track, but lap time isn’t significantly falling off. We also saw that in that aforementioned Texas race. This opens the door for pit road strategies to play out, specifically short- and long-pitting during a green flag run.
• NASCAR is using the 750hp package this weekend, which was also used at the road course races this season (not comparable), as well as Phoenix, Martinsville, Dover, and Darlington. The track within that list that most people are using to run comps with this weekend is Dover, simply because it’s concrete as well. Nashville is a lot flatter than Dover.
• Goodyear is using this tire combination for Nashville: D-4942 on the left sides (raced at Charlotte and Kansas this season) and then D-4968 on the right side (raced at Dover this season).
• There are 300 laps scheduled for today’s Ally 400, which means there are 75 DraftKings FPTS up for grabs for laps led. Additionally, I’m expecting right around 260 green flag laps, giving us an additional 117 (approximately) DraftKings FPTS up for grabs for fastest laps.
• Don’t get too hung up on place differential. Yes, there is a lot of chalk this week, but taking down a tournament is likely going to come down to pivoting off that chalk. Again: it’s going to be tough to pass today.

Dominators

These are the potential dominators for today’s race at Nashville, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:

• Kyle Larson
• Kyle Busch
• William Byron
• Chase Elliott
• Alex Bowman
• Joey Logano

Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Aric Almirola, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex, Jr.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Nashville according to my Projections is:

• Kyle Larson
• William Byron
• Alex Bowman
• Austin Dillon
• Bubba Wallace
• Quin Houff

Confidence Rating = 8.1/10. I love loading up on Hendrick here, and although Quin Houff may scare some people off, his 750hp numbers aren’t bad at all this season, and he’s starting dead last. You could also swap Dillon with Kurt Busch and Bubba with Suarez for a similar lineup. The first lineup without a back marker like Houff in it that my projections like is: Kyle Larson, William Byron, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman, Bubba Wallace, and Daniel Suarez.

GPP / Tournament Picks

William Byron ($9,700) – Nope, I don’t really care that William Byron technically starts 4th but will have to drop to the rear, and doesn’t have much place differential potential in DraftKings. This #24 team is still somehow sneaking under the radar despite having an average finish of 5.4 this season when you remove the road courses and the Daytona 500. Really all you need with Byron today is for him to get some dominator points eventually (this is a 300 lap race and he really doesn’t even need a ton) and to have a normal race day, and there’s a good chance he winds up in the optimal lineup. My projections love him so much I almost wrote up Willy B as a cash play…

Joey Logano ($8,900) – The algorithm really likes Joey Logano this weekend, and I bet on him early to win this race (not the #JordanJinx–don’t worry, that’s on Truex). In the 750hp package this season, the #22 Ford has an average finish of 6.5 and an average running position of 6.8. Also, at the two “new track races” this season, Logano won at Bristol Dirt and finished 3rd at COTA. At Dover last month, Joey started 9th and ended up finishing 5th. His DraftKings salary is great this weekend, and Logano’s high starting position should keep a lot of other players away from him.

Quin Houff ($4,500) – I can’t believe I’m writing up Quin Houff… shew. Anyway, Houff hit the wall in qualifying so he’s starting dead last. He’s also the lowest-priced driver on this slate. Yes, he’s a back marker, and no he probably won’t get much higher than the mid-30s, but his price is going to allow you a lot of flexibility with a lineup (especially since Larson is priced so high this week). Houff has an average finish of 28.8 in four 750hp races this year and his average running position is 31.6 over those races. He ended up 29th at Dover.

Cash Core Drivers

Kyle Larson ($11,800) – Do I really have to explain this one? The fastest car all season has somehow gotten even faster over the last month, and in case you needed even more of a reason to pick Larson today, he’s got some place differential by starting in 5th as well. It’s most likely that the #5 Chevrolet dominates this race and yes, Larson is worth the $11,800 price bump this week.

Alex Bowman ($9,300) – As I said earlier, I almost wrote up William Byron ($9,700) in this spot, but I’ll go with the next-best value option here: Alex Bowman. If you remember back to Dover (the other concrete track), “The Showman” had a great pit stop and didn’t look back after that, putting up 61 fastest laps and 98 laps led en route to victory lane. You should know by now that the play in NASCAR is to load up on Hendrick. Bowman starts 8th today and has legitimate top 5 upside, with a slight chance at getting the win, too.

Bubba Wallace ($6,500) – This is really a toss up for me between Bubba and Daniel Suarez ($6,300) with this spot. They’re both very equal in my eyes, and Suarez comes at a $200 discount and starts one spot further back, plus he has the Chevrolet engine, but I like Wallace’s numbers a little better with the 750hp package this season. In four races with this package, Bubba has an average finish of 16.0 and an average running position of 16.9, while Suarez is at 21.3 and 21.2 (respectively). Again, both these guys are close. I’m going to have plenty of exposure to both.

Nashville Ally 400 DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.