It’s been a while, fellow bettors! As you may or may not have noticed by now, I get a little hot and cold when it comes to betting on races. There will be a string of three or four races where I absolutely love a bunch of matchups and props, and then I’ll go a month without loving anything. That’s just how it goes. But anyway, the Best Bets article is back this weekend for Sonoma, as there are a few high-value lines I’ve found that I have to recommend.
Want to get an edge on the books with H2H matchups? Click here to check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race. If you enjoy this site and everything it has to offer, consider supporting by donating here.
Jordan’s Bets for Sonoma
2.1u on Christopher Bell over Brad Keselowski (-105) – In this matchup on BetMGM, Keselowski is the heavy favorite (-125) and that just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Yeah, Christopher Bell has never raced at Sonoma Raceway, but Joe Gibbs Racing is really good at this track, and don’t forget that CBell won the Daytona Road Course race earlier this season. Meanwhile, Keselowski is pretty meh at Sonoma, with only one top 5 finish and two total top 10s in ten career starts. Brad K has the advantage in starting position on Sunday (9th compared to 20th) but I think Bell will win in finishing position.
0.75u on Kevin Harvick to Finish Top 5 (+275) – This is another BetMGM line. Originally I saw Harvick Top 5 at +250 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but good thing I checked BetMGM as well because I was able to snag that prop at +275 for Sunday. If you’ve watched any of my DraftKings videos on YouTube this season, you know that I’ve frequently talked about this point in the season being the time when the slower teams catch up a bit, and the faster teams slow down a bit. And I think we’re seeing that with Kevin Harvick right now. Throw in the fact that road courses are tracks where driver talent comes more into play than usual, and I think Harvick could have a very good race here on Sunday. Is he a lock for a top 5 finish? Absolutely not. But at +275 odds, this is a solid bet. Over his last five starts here at Sonoma, “Happy” has finished 6th, 2nd, 1st, 6th, and 4th.
0.5u on Kyle Busch to Win (+900) – Oh, boy… #JordanJinx or nah? The last two #JordanJinx bets were Alex Bowman at Dover (he won) and William Byron at Darlington (finished 4th). So the question now becomes, is this curse finished? We’ll find out soon enough. I couldn’t pass up Kyle Busch at 9-to-1 odds this weekend. His recent road course results are absolutely pitiful–four of the last five races he’s finished 30th or worse–but the Rovals just don’t seem to be very kind to Rowdy Busch. Here at Sonoma, though, Kyle has five straight top 7 finishes, and that includes his win here back in 2015. My algorithm predicts Rowdy will finish 3rd in Sunday’s Toyota / Save Mart 350 so that’s definitely good enough for me to take him at +900 to win (bet on FanDuel Sportsbook).
PROBABLY A STUPID BET: 0.5u on Martin Truex, Jr. (+150) over Chase Elliott – I dumped more money than I care to admit on this same exact matchup when I was in Vegas for the Circuit of the Americas race, and well, we all know what happened there: Chase Elliott ended up in victory lane while Martin Truex, Jr.’s car got upended on a straightaway. But still, it’s impossible for me to pass up this kind of value on a H2H bet with Martin Truex, Jr. at a road course. Yes, Chase Elliott is the king of road courses right now, but Truex has won the last two races here, and Chase has yet to visit victory lane at Sonoma in four career starts. My algorithm has these two ranked 1-2 heading into Sunday, and while my brain also tells me that Chase Elliott is the slightly better play in this matchup, again, I can’t pass up the +150 value with Truex here. Hopefully I don’t empty my bank account on this once again by the green flag on Sunday.
