After a 3-1 start on Best Bets in the Busch Clash at Daytona on Tuesday, it’s time to take on the beast of a race that is the Daytona 500 on Sunday. I say “beast” because this one is going to get wild. Big superspeedway tracks like Daytona and Talladega are arguably the most fun to watch for the casual race fan because there are times when drivers get super aggressive, and because they’re all bunched up in a pack all race, this makes truly awesome stuff to watch. This also causes huge wrecks; one mistake by a driver can wipe out half of the field in an instant. Because of this, betting on superspeedway races such as the Daytona 500 can be challenging, but we can get some great odds along the way. Let’s start this season hot and get to the bets!
By the way, make sure you check out my algorithm predicted finishing order for Daytona by clicking here.
My Favorite Bets for The Great American Race
1u on Chris Buescher Top 10 Finish (+250) – As I said in my FanDuel article for the Daytona 500, I’m going all in on Chris Buescher this weekend. I can’t pass up +250 odds on a top 10 finish from Buescher, especially when he accomplished that feat in all four superspeedway races last season. Here at Daytona, he has top 10 finishes in five of his last seven points-paying races, three of which were also top 5s. He’s not going to go out there and look great all day, but Buescher will strategically run this race and be there at the end. That’s all that we can ask for to try and get a top 10 out of him. P.S. I also like putting a little on Michael McDowell +300 for a top 10 finish, but not enough to make it a “Best Bet.”
1u on Anthony Alfredo to Finish on Lead Lap (+175) – What a great prop bet here. What you’re essentially doing is better on whether a driver will avoid the carnage (and obviously any other mechanical issues or mistakes along the way). Now, here’s what I expect to happen with Anthony Alfredo and his teammate Michael McDowell on Sunday: they’re going to ride around in the back. This is on purpose. They’re going to ride around there for most of the race to try and avoid the aforementioned big wrecks. And then they’ll make their moves toward the end. Could they get caught up in the wreck? Absolutely. Like I said before, this race is a bit unpredictable. But to get +175 odds on this is a solid bet. For comparison, the only other plus-money drivers with this prop bet are the back markers and then guys like Corey LaJoie, Daniel Suarez, Kaz Grala, etc.–who all have worse equipment than Anthony Alfredo. It’s worth noting that the two Front Row Motorsports Fords finished on the lead lap in seven of their eight superspeedway attempts last season.
0.5u on Matt DiBenedetto (+100) over Austin Dillon – Yes, Austin Dillon is a previous Daytona 500 champion, and he has the 2nd-best average finish among current drivers here at Daytona, but I tend to lean on my algorithm quite a bit during the NASCAR season and there is such a gap between DiBenedetto and his Power Index number and Austin Dillon’s that I have to take the underdog in this H2H. Also, if you know me at all, you know I love betting against Austin Dillon, so let’s go Matty D! For what it’s worth, DiBenedetto had the 4th-best average running position on superspeedway tracks last season.
