Daytona Duel Races #1 & #2 DraftKings Projections, Picks, & Strategy Breakdown

After a really exciting Busch Clash at the Daytona Road Course on Tuesday night, we have two Duel races on the regular Daytona oval on Thursday night to set the field for Sunday’s Great American Race, the Daytona 500. There will be 22 cars in each of these races and the finishing order will determine where most drivers will start on Sunday–as well as who gets in among the “open” cars. For more information on that, check out this article (click here). But with there being such a quick turnaround between qualifying and the Duel races this week, let’s not waste any precious time and leettt’ssss gooooo!

Be Sure To Check Out My Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order For These Races (click here)

DraftKings Strategy for the Daytona Duel Races

Please note: there will be no strategy breakdown / lineup building video for these Duel races, but you can expect one again for the Daytona 500 on Sunday (and for the rest of the season). So let’s just go over the strategy here with the Duel races on Thursday night.

Once again we’re dealing with a very limited field of drivers in this race, and while place differential is always the king at superspeedways, you’re likely going to have to have one or two of the guys starting closer to the front in your lineup in order to take down a GPP. The drivers starting deep in the field for these Duels are the back marker cars, and let’s be honest, they’re only going to get near the front if this turns into a major wreckfest and they avoid the trouble.

So keep that in mind when building your DraftKings lineups on Thursday night. For cash lineups, I’d focus heavily on place differential, but for tournament lineups you’re going to need to throw in a driver starting close to the front (top 5). For the most part, I would limit my top 5 starters to just one per lineup, with an absolute max of two. I also think nailing the right drivers in that 6th- to 10th-place starting range is going to be key to making a great lineup.

To nail an optimal GPP lineup build, my strategy is going to be one top 5 starter, three top 6 to 12 starters, and then two place differential plays. Just for transparency, though, I am personally going very light on this slate and won’t be playing much. I like to watch these Duel races as a practice session slash sneak peek of what to expect on Sunday in the Daytona 500. There are too many different strategies at play in the Duels for me to have a lot of confidence in them.

Another thing to remember: these two Duel races typically have one calm one and one wreckfest. Judging simply by the drivers in each event, I’d put my money on Duel #2 being the wild one on Thursday night.

And finally: remember that in these superspeedway races, you’re picking drivers based on strategy not necessarily the “big name” factor. Superspeedway races tend to be crapshoots, and if the wrecks start happening in one (or both) of these Duels, strategy is going to trump everything else on Thursday night. These two races are scheduled for just 60 laps each, so relatively short once again, and fastest laps are going to be all over the map. You once again should be focusing on finishing position and place differential, not dominator points.

GPP / Tournament Picks For Duel #1

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,700) – Do not sleep on Matt DiBenedetto on Thursday (or on Sunday for that matter). This guy is a very good superspeedway racer and he has the Ford power under the hood to do some special things in these type of races. Last season was DiBenedetto’s first one full time with Wood Brothers Racing and their Ford power and he ended up having the 4th-best average running position on superspeedways behind his quasi-teammates Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Brad Keselowski. Unfortunately, Matt never really got the finishes he deserved, but he did wind up 7th in his Duel race last season after coming home 4th in his Duel in 2019 (although, to be fair, he was in a Leavine Family Racing Toyota that year). DiBenedetto starts 9th in his Duel on Thursday night.

Ryan Newman ($7,400) – “The Rocketman” is an underrated superspeedway racer, and one that just stays around and makes it to the end to he can make his move. That’s the type of driver you want in your fantasy lineups for these Duel races (and in the Daytona 500 on Sunday). Newman has finished 9th or better in five of the last seven points-paying races at Daytona and has finishes of 3rd, 9th, 6th, and 7th in his last four Duel starts. That kind of consistency is solid with a driver starting 12th, and Newman’s ownership should stay relatively low considering he’s priced right below the place differential options of Reddick, Jones, and McMurray.

Cash Core Drivers For Duel #1

Joey Logano ($10,100) – Here’s a quick stat hack for you: you can see how each driver has performed in the Duels relatively quickly by checking out their average starting spot in the Daytona 500. This will be skewed a bit for the pole and outside pole winners, but accurate for others. And over the last three years, only Alex Bowman has a better average starting position in the Daytona 500 than Joey Logano. As far as the numbers, Logano has averaged a start of 4th over those three years, thanks to finished of 1st, 1st, and 2nd. So, yeah, he’s pretty good in this race itself, plus on superspeedways as a whole. Last year, Logano had the best average running position (7.7) on this track type, nearly a full four positions better than 2nd-best Ryan Blaney, who’s average was 11.3. In 2018, again it was Logano leading that category at an 8.5 average running position.

Erik Jones ($8,000) – Erik Jones may not have that Joe Gibbs Racing speed on the superspeedways anymore, but that doesn’t mean he has a bad car by any means. The Chevrolets, especially those in the Hendrick camp, have strong raw power but don’t quite race as well as the Fords (especially) and the Toyotas. But still, in Duel #1, Jones is starting back in 15th and is running the same car that Bubba Wallace has finished 5th, 6th, and 3rd with in the last three Duel events. Jones himself finished 6th in his Duel race last season.

Daytona Duel #1 DraftKings Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

You will find the Duel #2 content below this! Keep scrolling!

Duel #2 Content Below

GPP / Tournament Picks For Duel #2

Kevin Harvick ($8,900) – I can make a case for rolling the dice with Bubba Wallace ($7,700) on Thursday night–like the fact that the Toyotas looked really strong in a pack during practice on Wednesday, or the fact that Bubba has finished 5th, 6th, and 3rd in his last three Duel races–but taking the chance on the 2nd-place starter on the Daytona oval almost never works out. So let’s go one position back and talk about Kevin Harvick, who starts 3rd. Harvick is great in the Duel races, plain and simple. Over the last five years he has finished 4th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in this race, and he has that Ford power, too. Of the top 5 starts in Duel #2, the two most likely winners are Harvick and Chase Elliott ($9,700).

Kurt Busch ($8,600) – There’s quite a bit of chalk in Duel #2 so strategy-wise you’re going to have to focus on differentiating your lineups a bit more than for Duel #1. So consider Kurt Busch here, who starts 7th. Now, in points-paying races here at Daytona, Kurt has been absolute garbage, with finishes of 25th or worse in six of his last seven starts. In his Duel races, though, Kurt has been solid lately, with an 8th last season, a 5th in 2019 and 2018, and 3rd-place finishes in 2017 and 2016. The 7th-place starting spot puts Busch right on the fringe of “does he start too high or not?” thinking, which should keep his ownership percentage down. A top 5 finish could easily put Kurt into the optimal lineup on Thursday night.

Cash Core Drivers For Duel #2

Chris Buescher ($7,400) – Yeah, I like the Fords at superspeedways if you haven’t figured that out by now. As far as Buescher goes, he finished 3rd and 9th in the two points-paying races here at Daytona last year–his first season with Roush Fenway–and also had the 6th-best average running position over all superspeedway races in 2020. And as far as finishes go at Talladega? Buescher came home 6th in both of those races last year. Here at Daytona and in his Duel race specifically, Buescher came home 10th last season, 7th in 2019, and 10th in 2018. He will start from 15th in Duel #2 on Thursday night.

Noah Gragson ($5,500) – I’m not sure what DraftKings was thinking here with the driver pricing, but Noah Gragson is starting dead last (22nd) in his Duel race, which means he’s guaranteed no less than 20 FPTS on Thursday night. For cash lineups, Gragson is the “no brainer” choice, but if you want to pivot to someone else here, that’s a good way to differentiate your lineup. You’ll be hard pressed to find any H2H contest where your opponent doesn’t have Gragson in their lineup. Noah is in the #62 Chevrolet for Beard Motorsports this weekend and trying to race his way in to Sunday’s Daytona 500. Brendan Gaughan has had plenty of superspeedway success in this car (relatively speaking) and has been one of the highest-scoring DraftKings drivers on this track type over the last few years.

Daytona Duel #2 DraftKings Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.