It all comes down to this, as we have our final NASCAR Cup Series race of the 2020 calendar year with the Season Finale 500 at Phoenix. It’s been a wild ride with plenty of surprises, but we made it and will be crowning a new Champion on Sunday. All eyes will be on the Championship Four drivers this weekend–and rightfully so–but it’s worth noting that Kevin Harvick is the favorite to win at most sports books this weekend even though he got eliminated last week at Martinsville.
My Favorite Bets for Phoenix
Kyle Busch Top 5 Finish (+125) – Let me just say this: Kyle Busch finishing top 5 at Phoenix being offered at plus-money odds is kind of crazy, but pretty much on par for 2020. But let’s just break this down: Rowdy has an average finish of 2.7 (!) over the last seven Phoenix races, and he’s ended up 4th or better in nine of the last ten. The exception during that time span? A 7th-place finish in the 2017 race. In the first race here this season, Kyle had some what of an off race–meaning he didn’t lead any laps after leading 69 (nice) or more in five of the last six–and still finished 3rd. This #18 team is looking to finish off this season strong and I think they’ll do so with a top 5 finish. I even have a smaller bet on a Kyle Busch Top 3 Finish (+250).
Alex Bowman Top 10 Finish (+105) – I’ll be finishing out my 2020 NASCAR betting year with one more large wager, and that’s on Alex Bowman finishing inside the top 10 at Phoenix on Sunday in the finale. This #88 team came to play this year in the Playoffs, and they’ve now rattled off seven top 10s in the nine races thus far. The exceptions? A 16th-place finish at Bristol and a 14th-place finish at Talladega. Bowman has just one career top 10 finish here at Phoenix and a career average result of 26.2, but he’s going to have a car with top 5 potential this weekend. Just keep it off the wall and a top 10 finish should be very easy for this #88 crew. I also put some money on an Alex Bowman Top 5 Finish (+450), but it’s much smaller.
Joey Logano Top 3 Finish (+135) – Joey Logano has the longest odds of the four Championship drivers this weekend, so that’s kind of why I landed on him as my third “best bet” this weekend. Also, I have several bets on him to win the Championship at 10-to-1, 12-to-1, and 13-to-1 odds, so might as well double down on him. In addition to winning the first Phoenix race this season, Logano has been as solid as they come on the shorter flat tracks in 2020, with an average rank of 3.4 in Green Flag Speed, an average running position of 4.4, and an average finish of 3.0. All of those are the best in the series.
