After a race at a brand new track last weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover International Speedway this weekend for a double-header before heading back to Daytona to close out the regular season. According to Sports Betting Dime, Kevin Harvick is the odds-on favorite to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship this season, however his advantage is short with the three drivers behind him–Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and Brad Keselowski. It should be fun to see how these final 13 races of the 2020 season play out.
Dover is a 1-mile oval that really doesn’t compare extremely well to any other track on the circuit. You can throw in the intermediates as a whole, or maybe Bristol, but Dover kind of stands alone. With that being said, we do have some comparables to look at, and we’ll get to those down in the strategy section. First, let’s go over recent Green Flag Speed. Also, Chase Elliott is on the pole this weekend, and if you need to see the full starting lineup, you can do so by clicking here.
Speed Report in 2020 After Daytona Road Course
When it comes to my Green Flag Speed tracking, there are several races over the season that I simply exclude, because the rankings aren’t accurate and/or the tracks are so different than the “normal” that it’s best to just not include them. The superspeedway races at Daytona and Talladega are always excluded, and you can add the road courses as well. Anybody watching last weekend knew Chase Elliott had the best car, yet he ranked 14th in Green Flag Speed. So, in case you were wondering why the Green Flag Speed Cheat Sheet hasn’t been updated, that’s why. The rankings below are the same as last week.
Over the last six races here are the fastest drivers in terms of Green Flag Speed:
- Kevin Harvick (6.2 average rank)
Joey Logano (6.2 average rank - ***tie for 1st***
- Ryan Blaney (6.8 average rank)
Kyle Busch (6.8 average rank) - ***tie for 3rd***
- Denny Hamlin (7.3 average rank)
Brad Keselowski (7.3 average rank)
You can click here to check out the updated Cheat Sheet on Green Flag Speed and see how every driver ranks in that category plus more, not only for the last six races but for the whole season.
DraftKings Strategy for Dover Saturday
A typical Dover race has 400 laps and two to three dominators. This weekend, both the Saturday and Sunday races are 311 laps and will probably have two dominators, maybe three depending on how everything shakes out. We’ll get to the lineup construction in a little bit, but it’s obviously going to be quite important to get those dominator points in your lineup. This is the complete opposite mindset from the Daytona Road Course last weekend, where we focused purely on place differential and finishing position.
As mentioned before, there’s no great comps for Dover. This is a concrete oval that is only one mile in length. With that being said, Goodyear is bringing tire code D-4928 for the left sides on the Cup cars this weekend. That same tire was used as the left side in these races: Fontana, both Darlington races, and Homestead. All season long we’ve seen the same tire combinations pretty much have the same guys up front, so I will definitely be looking into the speed from those races. Additionally, I’ll be looking at just Green Flag Speed as a whole in 2020.
Lineup Construction: Chances are you will need to have the two dominators on Saturday, unless of course one of them wrecks out of the race after dominating a good portion. Chances are, the dominators will be two of the top 3 starters Chase Elliott ($10,000), Denny Hamlin ($10,200), or Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,000). Throw in Kyle Busch ($10,600) and we have four very solid options that could score 80+ DraftKings FPTS on Saturday. I think you need to have at least two of those guys, and I’m not afraid to roster three of them with how some of the sub-$6,000 drivers are positioned.
GPP / Tournament Picks I Love for the Drydene 311 (Saturday)
Denny Hamlin ($10,200) – With Chase Elliott ($10,000) on the pole and Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,000) having the historical stats to warrant a lineup spot, Denny Hamlin could be the lowest-owned of the three–although his $800 discount in salary off of Truex could close that gap quite a bit. However, Hamlin might be my favorite play on this slate. Denny has never won at Dover but he led 218 laps from the pole the last time we were here. Additionally, this #11 team has been one of the fastest all season long, and with this left side tire combination, Hamlin has been amazing: two wins, no finish worse than 6th, and an average Green Flag Speed ranking of 5.0 over those four races.
Tyler Reddick ($7,100) – I love this play because I love what Tyler Reddick has done on this left side tire this season. Am I leaning too heavily on that? Possibly. But I’m the type of guy that notices and exploits patterns very well, and everything is lining up for Reddick to have a great day on Saturday. In the four races on this left side tire, Tyler has a best finish of 4th (Homestead) and no result worse than 13th. His average finish is 8.8, which is 4th-best in the series, and in terms of Green Flag Speed, Reddick ranked inside the top 6 in two of those four races. He starts back in 16th here at Dover on Saturday, and I think Reddick has just as much top 10 upside as Aric Almirola ($8,900) but at a much lower price.
Corey LaJoie ($5,000) – I don’t know where this salary came from, but this is disrespectful even for “old” Corey LaJoie (the one that hit the wall every other race). “New” Corey LaJoie is flourishing with the Stewart-Haas alliance and has finished 23rd or better in over half of the races this season. The #32 Ford will roll off the grid from 29th here at Dover on Saturday, and even though LaJoie has yet to finish better than 28th at “The Monster Mile” in a Cup car, he’s a safe option to free up some cap space and afford the heavy hitters starting 1-2-3.
Cash Core Drivers I Love for the Drydene 311 (Saturday)
Kyle Busch ($10,600) – Here’s the thing with Kyle Busch: the speed is there! He’s ranked 6th or better in Green Flag Speed in six of the last eight “normal” races. Unfortunately mechanical issues also happen, and when it comes to Fantasy NASCAR, they really suck. But Kyle Busch starting 22nd at a track that he’s won at three times, and priced relatively soft at $10,600, is going to make my cash lineup ten out of ten times even if he’s batting 1.000 for DNFs in the season. Additionally, looking at the four races ran with the same left side tire this year, Rowdy finished 6th or better three times. If I go broke playing Kyle Busch in cash from 22nd at Dover then so be it.
Chase Elliott ($10,000) – There’s only one active driver that has a better career average finish than Chase Elliott at Dover, and he’s currently awaiting NASCAR to reinstate him into the sport. So technically Chase Elliott has the best average finish here among active drivers. In eight starts, Chase’s average result is 8.6, and when you take out his blown engine here last fall, that average jumps up to a ridiculous 4.4. He’s on the pole for Saturday’s race, and on this left side tire this season, Elliott has the best average Green Flag Speed ranking (4.5). He should lead plenty of laps and be at or near the front all day long.
Ryan Preece ($5,700) – I’ve been a big Ryan Preece guy all season long, and that’s not changing this weekend. The thing is, the speed is there, and when we’re not at a 1.5-mile track, the finish is usually there, too. When you compare average Green Flag Speed rank to average finish, Preece has one of the worst correlations, at negative 4.1 spots. Only Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. are finishing worse than where their speed is this season. Preece starts back in 27th on Saturday for the Drydene 311 and is an excellent cash lineup option. On similar tire tracks this year, he has an average Green Flag Speed ranking of 18.8 and has finished 24th or better in two of the four races. Here at Dover, Ryan came home 28th and 19th in the two races last season.
Dover Saturday DraftKings Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems. Also included are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | Starting Position | DraftKings Salary | Avg Proj FPTS | Avg. Projected Finish | Proj Laps Led | Proj Fastest Laps | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 2 | $10,200 | 84.0 | 03.2 | 68 | 54 | $121 |
| Chase Elliott | 1 | $10,000 | 81.1 | 04.0 | 83 | 44 | $123 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 3 | $11,000 | 80.0 | 04.3 | 60 | 51 | $138 |
| Kevin Harvick | 10 | $11,400 | 61.3 | 04.0 | 16 | 23 | $186 |
| Kyle Busch | 22 | $10,600 | 60.1 | 07.0 | 5 | 16 | $176 |
| Ryan Blaney | 20 | $11,800 | 49.2 | 09.8 | 0 | 10 | $240 |
| Brad Keselowski | 7 | $9,700 | 46.8 | 05.8 | 13 | 9 | $207 |
| Aric Almirola | 17 | $8,900 | 45.8 | 08.7 | 0 | 7 | $194 |
| Tyler Reddick | 16 | $7,100 | 45.2 | 11.2 | 0 | 10 | $157 |
| Alex Bowman | 11 | $8,500 | 44.5 | 09.0 | 8 | 11 | $191 |
| Joey Logano | 5 | $9,400 | 42.5 | 09.5 | 20 | 13 | $221 |
| Erik Jones | 13 | $9,200 | 41.7 | 10.2 | 0 | 9 | $221 |
| Austin Dillon | 32 | $8,700 | 40.8 | 17.8 | 0 | 1 | $213 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 14 | $7,400 | 36.0 | 12.2 | 0 | 2 | $206 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 6 | $8,000 | 33.6 | 11.7 | 19 | 3 | $238 |
| Kurt Busch | 9 | $8,300 | 33.5 | 10.5 | 0 | 3 | $248 |
| Matt Kenseth | 26 | $7,000 | 29.2 | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | $240 |
| Ryan Newman | 23 | $6,800 | 27.5 | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | $247 |
| Clint Bowyer | 4 | $7,800 | 27.1 | 13.5 | 13 | 5 | $288 |
| Bubba Wallace | 24 | $6,600 | 26.0 | 21.7 | 0 | 0 | $254 |
| William Byron | 8 | $8,200 | 25.8 | 14.7 | 6 | 1 | $317 |
| Cole Custer | 21 | $7,300 | 25.7 | 20.2 | 0 | 1 | $284 |
| Christopher Bell | 18 | $7,600 | 25.5 | 19.0 | 0 | 2 | $298 |
| John H. Nemechek | 31 | $6,500 | 23.5 | 26.2 | 0 | 0 | $277 |
| Ryan Preece | 27 | $5,700 | 23.3 | 24.5 | 0 | 0 | $244 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 19 | $6,200 | 22.5 | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | $276 |
| Ty Dillon | 25 | $5,500 | 19.3 | 25.3 | 0 | 0 | $284 |
| Michael McDowell | 15 | $6,300 | 18.7 | 20.2 | 0 | 0 | $338 |
| JJ Yeley | 34 | $4,800 | 18.3 | 30.2 | 0 | 0 | $262 |
| Garrett Smithley | 39 | $5,200 | 15.7 | 34.0 | 0 | 0 | $332 |
| Josh Bilicki | 37 | $4,700 | 15.2 | 33.2 | 0 | 0 | $310 |
| Reed Sorenson | 36 | $5,300 | 15.0 | 32.7 | 0 | 0 | $353 |
| Corey Lajoie | 29 | $5,000 | 14.7 | 29.2 | 0 | 0 | $341 |
| Joey Gase | 38 | $5,400 | 14.5 | 33.5 | 0 | 0 | $372 |
| Daniel Suarez | 28 | $5,800 | 13.7 | 28.7 | 0 | 0 | $424 |
| Quin Houff | 35 | $4,500 | 13.5 | 32.5 | 0 | 0 | $333 |
| Chris Buescher | 12 | $6,000 | 11.3 | 22.7 | 0 | 0 | $529 |
| Brennan Poole | 30 | $4,600 | 10.2 | 32.0 | 0 | 0 | $452 |
| BJ McLeod | 40 | $5,100 | 07.7 | 38.2 | 0 | 0 | $665 |
| Timmy Hill | 33 | $4,900 | 05.0 | 35.7 | 0 | 0 | $980 |
