Atlanta Motor Speedway is the site of this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race, and it should be a good one. We have 500 miles to run this afternoon on a hot, worn out track. Tires are going to be a premium, as this track eats them up like no other, and a driver’s skill is really going to come into play with the slickness and the need to manage the tires throughout a run.
The bets listed below are ones that I have already placed via the DraftKings Sportsbook, with the odds posted.
My Top Bets for Atlanta
Kyle Busch Top 5 Finish (+120) – Getting Kyle Busch at plus-money for a top 5 finish typically doesn’t happen, so the fact that he’s +120 at a track like Atlanta–which comes down to driver skill and tire management most of the time–is incredible. Now, the bad news? Rowdy hasn’t finished top 5 here since 2016, and he has just five results inside that mark in his 21 career starts. The good news? Even though Kyle Busch and the #18 Toyota seem to be “struggling to find speed” (according to some people), Busch has five top 5s in the last seven Cup Series races. This is my favorite bet of today and also the largest on my card.
Brad Keselowski Top 5 Finish (+170) – There’s so much to like about Brad Keselowski today. First, he’s won two of the last three Cup Series races this season. Second, he’s won two of the last three Atlanta races as well. And, finally, thanks to his win at Bristol last weekend, the #2 crew has the first pit stall on pit road. Now, that’s not as huge of an advantage at Atlanta as it is at some other tracks (like Darlington), but it’s still an advantage. Keselowski has this reputation for lucking into good finishes, but he has the 2nd-best Green Flag Speed average ranking since Daytona (click here for the Green Flag Speed Cheat Sheet).
Ryan Blaney Top 5 Finish (+250) – Ryan Blaney just needs one race where he doesn’t have bad luck or something weird happen to him. Look at last week at Bristol: he could’ve challenged for the win even after his spin if Ty Dillon would’ve went low like literally every other driver on the track. Blaney almost won Fontana but had a tire issue, almost won Las Vegas but had a tire issue, almost won Daytona if Ryan Newman’s car would’ve spun three inches earlier. Blaney has never finished better than 12th here at Atlanta but he has a car that can finish top 5 today.
Other bets added to my card:
- Chase Elliott Top 5 Finish (+120) … Seems like a no-brainer. Chase is on the pole and has had the fastest car all season long. He finished 5th here at Atlanta back in 2017 and that was when the Hendrick cars didn’t have any speed.
- Ryan Blaney To Win (+1500) … Like I said before, just a little luck. Penske as a whole organization has really good luck at Atlanta, and 15/1 is solid value.
