Texas Motor Speedway is the site of this weekend’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race, and the last time we were here, we saw the top qualifiers run up front all day long. Still, there were quite a few movers in that race, as Clint Bowyer finished 2nd after starting 25th, while those who finishes 7th through 9th all started 21st or worse. This weekend’s there’s a lot of good cars starting up front again, but there are plenty of options for “movers” in the race as well.
Kevin Harvick had the field covered by a tenth during qualifying on Saturday and will lead them to the green on Sunday. He has won the last two fall races here at Texas, and if he can make it three in a row on Sunday, he’ll punch his ticket to Homestead again. Click here for the starting lineup. You can find the speeds from Practice #1 on Friday by clicking here. For speeds from the second practice (Happy Hour), click here.
*Please note: the picks and suggestions below are my opinions and strategy for the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest. These are not meant to sway your thinking in any way, but rather give you insight into the drivers I am most likely to pick on Sunday.*
AAA Texas 500 Slingshot Picks
Chase Elliott ($11,800) – I bet you were expecting one of the “Big Three” drivers in this spot, weren’t you? Not this week. While my initial lineup for the Slingshot game did have Martin Truex, Jr. ($13,200) on it, I’m going to go with a little more of a centric approach this weekend. Chase Elliott qualified 14th for this weekend’s AAA Texas 500 but he should finish much better than that (hello place differential points). He’s almost in a “win or die” situation when it comes to the championship now, and if this #9 team is going to make a push at stealing a win these next two races, it’s more likely to happen here. Chase owns the series-best average finish on 1.5-mile tracks this season (7.8) and here at Texas he has the best average finish among active drivers (8.0). The Hendrick cars weren’t super fast here in practice on Friday but I expect them to be just fine for the race on Sunday.
Kyle Larson ($11,200) – I must like the desperate guys this weekend. Kyle Larson got through Martinsville without his usual awful finish, and honestly I think that’s a good thing. This #42 team has found a ton of speed this second half of the year, and here in the Playoffs, Larson has finished 9th or better in four of the seven races, including an 8th-place result at Las Vegas and a disappointing 14th-place finish at Kansas despite leading 60 laps–the two most recent 1.5-mile tracks we’ve visited. Here at Texas, Larson is extremely hit or miss, but he finished 5th in this race last season and has four results of 7th or better in his twelve career starts at this track. The #42 Chevrolet looked like a solid top 10 car in practice on Friday, and Larson’s teammate, Kurt Busch, showed consistent top 5 speed. I really think that will show in the #42 on Sunday as well. Larson qualified 13th so there’s room for place differential, too.
William Byron ($10,200) – There’s really nothing I don’t like about William Byron this weekend. First, he has an average finish of 10.7 at Texas Motor Speedway, which is good, obviously, but almost incredible when you consider how awful Byron was on the 1.5-mile tracks before this season. This #24 team has really turned it around under Chad Knaus, though, as Willie B owns an average result of 11.1 on them this year (7th-best in the series), and that includes a 6th-place run here back in March. This time around, Byron starts back in 18th, but he should have no issue getting to the front on Sunday. I’m expecting at least a top 10 finish out of this #24 team this weekend.
Clint Bowyer ($10,100) – The fastest guy during both practice sessions on Friday qualified 24th… of course I’m going to take him in a NASCAR Fantasy game that relies so heavily on place differential. Not only that, but Bowyer finished 2nd here at Texas back in March, and he has seven top 10 finishes in the last ten Cup Series races overall. The exceptions? The Las Vegas race to kick off the Playoffs, the wildcard Talladega race, and Martinsville last weekend, when this #14 team changed the wrong side tires when Clint had a flat (don’t get me started on that…). Bowyer has finished 11th or better in three of the five races on the “new” Texas Motor Speedway and I fully expect him to make it four of the six after Sunday.
Michael McDowell ($6,700) – Originally I had Ryan Preece ($6,500) occupying this spot, but I decided to roll with Michael McDowell instead. If you’re curious why I think Ryan Preece is a good option, though, be sure to check out my DraftKings post (click here), as I went into detail there. Anyway, McDowell is a decent option this weekend, mainly because he didn’t have one of his crazy high qualifying efforts. Instead, the #34 Ford will roll off the grid from 27th, and I’m expecting McDowell to move up 5-to-10 spots on Sunday. He has an average finish of 23.3 on this track type in 2019, and here at Texas, McDowell has finished between 14th and 23rd in four of the five races since the repave/reconfiguration. I view him as a relatively safe, cheap option on Sunday.
