Last week at ISM Raceway (Phoenix), Kyle Busch ended up closing as the favorite, and he showed why with a dominating performance en route to yet another win for that #18 team in the desert. Now we move a little more west this weekend to Fontana, California and Auto Club Speedway, and Kyle Busch is once again the favorite to win. He missed out on winning the Xfinity race here yesterday, so Sunday will be the quest for Rowdy to get to 200 wins among NASCAR’s top 3 series. He’s a three-time winner at this race track and has finished 3rd or better in five of the last seven.
Last weekend at ISM Raceway (Phoenix) my favorite bets went 0-1, bringing my yearly record to 3-3. I had Brad Keselowski to finish top 3, and his day went south early, so that was screwed from the beginning.
My Favorite Bets for Auto Club Speedway
Joey Logano Top 3 Finish (+205) – I initially had Brad Keselowski Top 3 Finish (+115) as my favorite bet for the weekend, but when I really thought about it, I liked the value with Joey Logano at +180 a little better. This #22 team hasn’t finished outside of the top 5 at Fontana since the 2015 season, and Joey is rolling off the grid from 5th when the Auto Club 400 goes green today. We all know that the Penske Fords have had the best speed all season long, and although it’s hard to say whether practice speeds will mean an awful lot here on Sunday, Logano did have the best 20-lap average in the Happy Hour practice session on Saturday. The Fantasy Racing Online algorithm has Logano ranked 4th this weekend right behind Kevin Harvick, but I think the #22 Ford has a little more speed than the #4.
Kurt Busch (-105) over Erik Jones – Last season, Kurt Busch was one of the most consistent finishers overall in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. This year, he’s on a brand new team, but he’s brought that same consistency with him, as the #1 Chevrolet hasn’t finished worse than 7th at Daytona. Busch also has Chevrolet’s only two top 5 finishes thus far in 2019. Erik Jones, on the other hand, has yet to really get things going this year, and despite finishing 3rd in the Daytona 500, his average finish for this season is sitting at 13th right now. This weekend, Kurt qualified back in 21st while Jones qualified 18th, but Busch has the better car. Additionally, looking at the 2-mile tracks last year, Kurt had an average finish of 7.7 while Jones had an average result of 11.7–and that’s with an average starting spot of 5.3.
Fontana Race Day Betting Odds for the Auto Club 400
| Kyle Busch | 3/1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 4.5/1 |
| Kevin Harvick | 5/1 |
| Joey Logano | 7/1 |
| Kyle Larson | 7.5/1 |
| Ryan Blaney | 10/1 |
| Aric Almirola | 17/1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 22/1 |
| Chase Elliott | 26/1 |
| Austin Dillon | 27/1 |
| Erik Jones | 27/1 |
| Kurt Busch | 32/1 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 40/1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | 60/1 |
| Daniel Hemric | 60/1 |
| Alex Bowman | 65/1 |
| Daniel Suarez | 90/1 |
| William Byron | 100/1 |
| Ryan Newman | 100/1 |
| Paul Menard | 150/1 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 200/1 |
| Field | 32/1 |
