NASCAR continues its West Coast Swing this weekend at ISM Raceway in Phoenix, Arizona. This is a 1-mile flat track that has produced some long-shot winners in the past. Still, Kevin Harvick has won seven of the last thirteen races here, and that’s a big part of why he’s the favorite to win today’s TicketGuardian 500 at 3/1 odds. Another big favorite is Kyle Busch, who is the most recent winner at Phoenix and had led over 100 laps in three of the last four events at this track. Rowdy is at 3.5/1 odds to win today’s race.
Last weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway my favorite bets went 1-1, bringing my yearly record to 3-2.
My Favorite Bets for ISM Raceway
Brad Keselowski Top 3 Finish (+200) – Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are understandably the heavy favorites heading into today’s TicketGuardian 500, but don’t count out Brad Keselowski. All three Penske cars have great speed here at Phoenix this weekend, and I’d argue that the #2 Ford is the best of the trio. In the race here last fall, Keselowski said they hit on something here, and it turned into a runner-up finish for this #2 team. That makes it two top 5s in the last four Phoenix races for Brad. Momentum-wise, there’s nobody better than Keselowski right now, and he should be up front all day in the desert with his fast Ford and 5th-place starting spot.
This is my only bet for the race today, partially because there are no driver matchups posted yet. I’ll update this post once those lines are up, assuming there are any I really like.
Phoenix Race Day Betting Odds for the TicketGuardian 500
| Kevin Harvick | 3/1 |
| Kyle Busch | 3.5/1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 6/1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 8/1 |
| Chase Elliott | 8/1 |
| Ryn Blaney | 8/1 |
| Joey Logano | 10/1 |
| Kyle Larson | 12/1 |
| Erik Jones | 20/1 |
| Kurt Busch | 25/1 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 25/1 |
| Aric Almirola | 25/1 |
| Alex Bowman | 25/1 |
| Austin Dillon | 40/1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | 40/1 |
| William Byron | 40/1 |
| Daniel Suarez | 60/1 |
| Daniel Hemric | 60/1 |
| Ryan Newman | 80/1 |
| Paul Menard | 80/1 |
| Bubba Wallace | 100/1 |
| Ryan Prece | 100/1 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 100/1 |
| Field | 30/1 |
