I’ll warn you now: the possibility of this weekend’s race getting a little wacky is higher than normal. Typically, Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a very predictable track, but with NASCAR’s new rules package coming into full effect on Sunday, I don’t think anybody can say for sure what we’re going to see when all 38 cars get on track. My prediction? I think we will see great racing within the pack, tons of passes there, and more wrecks than usual. As far as the leader, though, I think it’s going to be difficult to pass him unless you have a really good car. Only time will tell, though.
Last week at Atlanta my Favorite Bets went 2-1, with Truex finishing top 3 at +300 hitting as well as Ryan Newman over Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. at +140 paying out as well. The only loss was Truex not getting the win, which would have paid out +1000, as he finished 2nd. So a good start, now let’s keep it rolling!
My Favorite Bets for Las Vegas
Martin Truex, Jr. Top 3 Finish (+275) – See my notes from last week. Truex is one of, if not the best racer when it comes to the 1.5-mile tracks, and the fact that you could triple-up your money on him with a top 3 finish last week at Atlanta–and nearly do so again this week at Las Vegas–is like taking candy from a baby. I will bet this for that type of value each and every time it’s offered at a track of this length. Trust me, you’ll be profitable. Truex has finished 4th or better in four of the last five Las Vegas races, and even though he’s going to start back in 23rd for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400, he’s going to be at or near the front by the end of it. Remember, the #19 Toyota had the best green flag speed at Atlanta last weekend, and all of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas are sporty this weekend in Sin City.
Aric Almirola (-105) over Clint Bowyer – Surprisingly, Clint Bowyer is favored in this matchup (-125), which really makes no sense at all. Almirola hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 at a 1.5-mile race track since Chicagoland last summer, while Bowyer has just two results better than 12th in the last six races at 1.5-mile tracks. Here at Las Vegas, Almirola swept the top 10 in both races last season while Bowyer has just one finish better than 18th in the last seven. This seems like a no-brainer to me. The only advantage Clint has going into Sunday is starting position (he starts 17th, Almirola starts 25th), but the #10 Ford was a lot faster in race practice on Saturday than the #14 Ford.
Las Vegas Race Day Betting Odds for the Pennzoil 400
| Kevin Harvick | 4/1 |
| Kyle Busch | 4.5/1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 5.5/1 |
| Kyle Larson | 7/1 |
| Joey Logano | 8/1 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 10/1 |
| Austin Dillon | 15/1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 16/1 |
| Kurt Busch | 20/1 |
| Erik Jones | 20/1 |
| Ryan Blaney | 22/1 |
| Chase Elliott | 22/1 |
| Clint Bowyer | 30/1 |
| Aric Almirola | 30/1 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 30/1 |
| Daniel Hemric | 35/1 |
| Daniel Suarez | 50/1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | 50/1 |
| Alex Bowman | 75/1 |
| Paul Menard | 75/1 |
| Ryan Newman | 75/1 |
| William Byron | 90/1 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 90/1 |
| Field | 33/1 |
