Atlanta Motor Speedway has always been a track where it’s quite difficult to get to victory lane. Tire management is key when it comes to being fast at Atlanta, and strategy calls by your crew chief can be the difference between ending up in victory lane and finishing 15th. And while it’s certainly possible that a ‘surprise’ driver could end up winning this afternoon’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, it’s not exactly likely; typically, the top tier drivers end up in victory lane during the one-a-year visit to Atlanta.
My Favorite Bets for Atlanta
Martin Truex, Jr. to win (+1000) – You know what they say: the more things change, the more things stay the same. Martin Truex, Jr. is an elite racer at 1.5-mile race tracks, and he’s an expert at taking care of his tires, too. He starts 9th for today’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, but there’s no doubt that the #19 Toyota is going to be at or near the front by the end of the first Stage. Practice-wise, Truex ranked 3rd in 20-lap average in Happy Hour on Saturday, 3rd in 10-lap average, and 10th in overall speed. Add in the fact that he now has a full blown Joe Gibbs Racing pit crew, and it’s the perfect combination for a race win on Sunday. Any time I can get Truex at these kind of odds at an intermediate race track, I’m taking it. He’s finished 8th or better in six of his last seven Atlanta starts. I’ll also throw in Martin Truex, Jr. Top 3 finish (+300) as well.
Ryan Newman (+140) over Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – Stenhouse is a historically good qualifier at Atlanta Motor Speedway, as his 2nd-place qualifying effort this weekend makes him 5-out-of-7 when it comes to starting inside the top 6 at this track. But qualifying at Atlanta and racing for 500 miles at Atlanta are two completely different things. That’s why Stenhouse has four finishes of 16th or worse in his six completed races here. As far as Newman goes, he qualified 13th for today’s race and seemed to have better-than-average speed in Happy Hour on Saturday (the #6 Ford ranked 9th-fastest). Newman has ran into some trouble here lately at Atlanta but he’s more than capable of a top 10 finish today.
Atlanta Race Day Betting Odds
| Kevin Harvick | 4.5/1 |
| Kyle Busch | 6/1 |
| Kyle Larson | 8.5/1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 9/1 |
| Joey Logano | 9/1 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 10/1 |
| Chase Elliott | 10/1 |
| Clint Bowyer | 10/1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 15/1 |
| Aric Almirola | 18/1 |
| Kurt Busch | 20/1 |
| Erik Jones | 25/1 |
| Ryan Blaney | 25/1 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 25/1 |
| Daniel Suarez | 25/1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | 25/1 |
| Austin Dillon | 40/1 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 50/1 |
| Alex Bowman | 60/1 |
| Paul Menard | 60/1 |
| William Byron | 60/1 |
| Ryan Newman | 80/1 |
| Daniel Hemric | 100/1 |
| Field | 30/1 |
