These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday afternoon’s race at Dover International Speedway, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.
- Jimmie Johnson will be starting from the back of the field today due to a gear change. He should still be able to make his way to the front of the field, but his dominator potential in DraftKings severely diminished. Considering he is the highest-priced driver this weekend, that Sunday morning news makes it that much harder to put him in a lineup today.
- Look for Martin Truex, Jr. and Kyle Busch to be the two main dominators at Dover today. They both have very fast race cars and start at the front. Another guy to keep an eye on is Kyle Larson, who starts 5th and was very fast in the Happy Hour practice session on Saturday, especially on the long run.
- One guy who didn’t look great in practice was Martin Truex, Jr., but we’ve seen this from him before. Whenever Truex has a car that can win, he tends to hide his cards during practice. Don’t be fooled, though: that #78 Toyota is bad fast.
Projected Base FPTS at Dover
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base DraftKings FPTS–which doesn’t take into account fastest laps or laps led points–as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps or laps led–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by the average projected finish of the drivers.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Avg Proj Base FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr | $9,900 | 2 | 01.8 | 44.8 | $221 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,300 | 5 | 03.0 | 43.6 | $236 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,600 | 14 | 03.6 | 51.4 | $206 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,400 | 1 | 05.2 | 35.2 | $295 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,500 | 4 | 05.8 | 36.4 | $261 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,000 | 8 | 06.0 | 40.0 | $250 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,100 | 18 | 07.2 | 47.6 | $212 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,300 | 6 | 09.8 | 30.4 | $273 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 22 | 10.0 | 46.0 | $191 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,200 | 19 | 10.2 | 42.6 | $192 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,000 | 10 | 10.6 | 32.8 | $274 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,600 | 16 | 12.0 | 36.0 | $267 |
| Joey Logano | $9,200 | 26 | 12.8 | 44.4 | $207 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | 15 | 13.2 | 32.6 | $267 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,600 | 12 | 14.0 | 28.0 | $271 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $7,800 | 11 | 14.4 | 26.2 | $298 |
| Erik Jones | $8,400 | 7 | 15.8 | 19.4 | $433 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,100 | 3 | 16.2 | 14.6 | $486 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,700 | 20 | 16.6 | 30.8 | $250 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,200 | 13 | 17.2 | 22.6 | $319 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,400 | 9 | 18.8 | 15.4 | $481 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,800 | 17 | 19.0 | 23.0 | $296 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,400 | 21 | 21.0 | 23.0 | $278 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,200 | 24 | 21.8 | 24.4 | $254 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,300 | 29 | 22.6 | 27.8 | $227 |
| Paul Menard | $6,700 | 23 | 24.2 | 18.6 | $360 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,700 | 28 | 25.8 | 20.4 | $279 |
| David Ragan | $5,100 | 33 | 26.6 | 23.8 | $214 |
| Regan Smith | $6,100 | 30 | 27.2 | 19.6 | $311 |
| Danica Patrick | $5,900 | 31 | 27.2 | 20.6 | $286 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,300 | 27 | 27.4 | 16.2 | $327 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $4,900 | 25 | 30.2 | 08.6 | $570 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,800 | 35 | 30.6 | 17.8 | $326 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $4,800 | 39 | 33.2 | 16.6 | $289 |
| Gray Gaulding | $4,700 | 32 | 33.4 | 09.2 | $511 |
| Ross Chastain | $4,600 | 36 | 33.8 | 12.4 | $371 |
| Cody Ware | $4,400 | 38 | 35.4 | 11.2 | $393 |
| Ryan Sieg | $4,300 | 34 | 35.8 | 06.4 | $672 |
| Derrike Cope | $4,500 | 37 | 35.4 | 10.2 | $441 |
| Corey Lajoie | $4,800 | 40 | 35.6 | 12.8 | $375 |
