Bristol Motor Speedway is another half-mile short track so once again the focus needs to be more on dominator FPTS than anything else this weekend. Chances are, the higher-priced drivers are going to be the ones that collect those dominator points, so the best strategy this weekend will be to have as many potential dominators in your lineup as possible and then fill in the rest with place differential potential. Looking at recent track trends, four of the last six races have had at least three drivers each lead for 70 or more laps. And with the way the track is expected to change here on Sunday, that number could be even higher for the 2017 Food City 500.
With 500 laps scheduled, that means there will be close to 250 FPTS for fastest laps and 125 FPTS for laps led up for grabs on Sunday, the first number obviously depending on the number of caution laps. Both of those amounts are also based on the race going the schedule distance. With rain in the forecast, we could see a shortened race.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Avoid at Bristol
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Bristol (over $9,500)
Kyle Busch ($10,600) – Putting Kyle Busch in your lineup is going to take a big chunk of your cap away, but he’s the only driver in this field that could absolutely go out there and dominate this race on Sunday. The #18 Toyota has been fast ever since they unloaded it off the truck and on Saturday it was on top of both practice speed charts. Additionally, Rowdy was 4th in ten-lap average during that final session. Another bonus for going with Kyle Busch this week is that he starts in 7th, which gives you a little room for some place differential FPTS. With all of that being said, we can’t overlook the fact that Busch has just one finish better than 29th in his last five starts here. However, he led 256 laps here last August and led 192 laps in the previous summer event. You can’t predict mechanical failures or wrecks, and that’s what has been happening with Kyle Busch at Bristol as of late. He’s still a five-time winner here, though, and has to be the favorite in the garage heading into Sunday.
Jimmie Johnson ($9,700) – We’ve seen this happen before: Jimmie Johnson breaks his slump with a (somewhat) surprising victory and then he just goes on a tear for the next month or two. Don’t be surprised if Sunday’s Food City 500 is the start of that tear. Jimmie Johnson had the best-looking car in both practice sessions on Saturday–in terms of speed and handling–and any time this #48 team goes out and runs the most laps in practice, you have to think they have a very good race car. Surprisingly, Johnson has only one victory here in Thunder Valley, but he does have four top 10s in the last five races here and has led the 6th-most laps (833) among all active drivers here. Johnson’s salary situation is interesting this weekend because he’s right there below the five $10,000+ drivers. That means he’s either going to get overlooked and be under-owned, or over-owned because of the cheaper price. Johnson will start from 11th on Sunday so there’s some decent place differential potential there, too.
Mid-Range DraftKings Drivers to Target at Bristol (between $7,500 and $9,500)
Chase Elliott ($9,400) – Not many players are going to take the time to fit Chase Elliott and his $9,400 salary in their lineup this weekend, so it could pay major dividends if he has as fast of a car as he seems to have. Chase will start alongside Kyle Larson when this year’s Food City 500 goes green, which means the #24 Chevrolet will be in prime position to lead some laps if the #42 Chevrolet doesn’t quite have the speed. Interestingly enough, the two races (I’m excluding Daytona) where Chase has led more than one or two laps this year have been the shorter tracks: Phoenix and Martinsville. He led 14 laps in the race here at Bristol last August and ended up finishing 4th in this event one year ago. This could very well end up being a big whiff on my part, but I could see Chase Elliott leading a pretty good portion of this race on Sunday. He had the 3rd-best ten-lap average in Practice #2 and wound up 10th on that chart in Happy Hour.
Kurt Busch ($7,700) – This is another salary that stuck out like a sore thumb at first glance earlier this week. Kurt Busch finally got back on track with a 10th-place finish at Texas a couple of weeks ago and is now coming into a track where he has won five times. Additionally, Kurt has been one of the strongest competitors here at Bristol over the last four races, averaging a driver rating of 100.5 (4th-best) and posting a 3rd-place finish in this race one year ago. He’s going to start from back in 15th when this year’s Food City 500 goes green but the #41 Ford should be quite a bit better than that. Kurt was 15th- and 11th-fastest during the two practice sessions on Saturday and ranked 7th and 13th in terms of ten-lap average. With his low salary, though, you can expect Kurt Busch to be on a pretty high percentage of DraftKings teams this weekend. If you want to go an alternative route, Kasey Kahne ($7,600) has looked really fast all weekend and starts back in 17th.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Bristol (under $7,500)
Paul Menard ($6,400) – Personally, I rarely go ‘all in’ on a driver in DraftKings–meaning having him or her on over 80% of my lineups. However, that might be the case this weekend with Paul Menard. Despite having a pretty solid record here at Bristol as of late–seven top 15s in the last ten races–DraftKings cut the salary of Paul down to $6,400 this week. You add in the fact that the #27 Chevrolet really didn’t look too shabby in practice on Saturday (Menard ranked 4th and 9th in the two sessions when it came to ten-lap average) and we have a very good opportunity for quite a few FPTS for a relatively low amount of money. Typically, the top drivers for any given race have a dollar-per-point ratio of $200 to 1 FPT. In order for Menard to meet that mark this weekend, he only needs a 19th-place finish, since he’s going to start from back in 26th. That’s pretty attainable.
Landon Cassill ($5,300) – A lot of DraftKings players will be going with Matt DiBenedetto ($5,700) as the ultra-low play at Bristol, especially considering he finished 6th and 17th in the two races here last season. And really you can’t blame them. But I don’t know about you, but I personally don’t want a driver in my lineup that is starting in the back who has little to no confidence in his car. After Practice #2 on Saturday, DiBenedetto said they were “struggling big time” and it was “not good” (click here for the tweet). He tweeted again after Happy Hour to say the car was better, but I’m not getting the vibe that he’s very confident at all heading into the Food City 500. Landon Cassill, on the other hand, has shown quite a bit of speed this weekend, especially in Happy Hour when he was 13th on the chart. He was also 19th-fastest in ten-lap average during Practice #2 earlier that day. Cassill will start from back in 30th on Sunday and makes a nice “outside of the box” pick in DraftKings. He finished 22nd and 20th in the two races here last season.
