We’re in a similar situation as a few weeks ago when the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series teams were at Martinsville Speedway. This time around, we’re at Bristol Motor Speedway (another half-mile track) and qualifying was also rained out, meaning the ever-important (for DraftKings anyway) starting lineup wasn’t set by speed but rather by points. Theoretically, this should mean that the best drivers are all starting up front, but there’s actually quite a few that will more than likely end up falling back. Obviously, those guys need to be avoided in DraftKings, especially if they have little to no dominator potential.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Bristol
DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Bristol Food City 500
Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,500) – Plain and simple, Martin Truex, Jr. isn’t very good at Bristol Motor Speedway. He has made twenty-two career Cup Series attempts at “The Bullring” and has came away with a grand total of two top 10s. Additionally, since joining Furniture Row Racing in 2014, Martin has just one finish better than 23rd in six attempts here at Bristol, and that was a 14th-place effort in this race one year ago. This weekend, the #78 Toyota will roll off the grid from the 3rd-place starting position, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all if Truex is outside of the top 10 before lap 100. Truex was inside the top 10 in both practice sessions on Saturday but ran significantly less laps than most other drivers. That’s usually a pretty big red flag at a short track. Truex shouldn’t be on any of your DraftKings lineups this weekend.
Denny Hamlin ($8,800) – Bristol isn’t a track where you go to turn your luck around, and with his 25th-place finish at Texas a couple of weeks ago, Denny Hamlin now has just one result better than 10th in the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season thus far. Not very good. Here at Bristol, Hamlin has been pretty strong in the summer race (he has finished 3rd the last two years in August) but as far as this particular race goes, Denny’s latest finishes have been 20th, 26th, 6th, 23rd, 20th, 33rd, and 19th. Obviously one of those results sticks out like a sore thumb, and I’m not big on the whole “lightning striking twice” thing. This weekend, the #11 Toyota will start from 16th when the Food City 500 goes green, and while there is some room for place differential points, Hamlin’s salary of $8,800 this weekend puts him into the range of needing to get more than a decent finish of some place differential FPTS. There’s at least fifteen other drivers that, heading into race day, have a better shot at dominating this race than Denny Hamlin does. He was 17th-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday and reported some gas pedal issues. I’d stay away.
Ryan Blaney ($8,200) – In the Fantasy NASCAR world, there’s quite a bit of recency bias. The last race that the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series teams ran was at Texas, and the #21 Ford was dominant for most of the day. That in and of itself is going to bump up Ryan Blaney’s DraftKings ownership percentage this weekend. Nothing astronomical, but still higher than it should be. With that being said, Bristol Motor Speedway is an entirely different animal, and one that Blaney doesn’t fully have figured out yet. He has top 10 potential this weekend, don’t get me wrong, but that 6th-place starting spot is a major hindrance to any kind of value in DraftKings this weekend. And the $8,200 salary? Strikes one, two, and three. Blaney finished 11th in this race last season and then qualified 4th for the August race but got caught up in a wreck and ended up finishing 35th. He had top 10 potential in that second race as well.
Jamie McMurray ($8,000) – Jamie Mac is a strong performer here at Bristol Motor Speedway (he finished 8th last August and has wound up inside the top 15 in each of the last five races here) but he has little to no dominator potential and his chances of losing place differential FPTS is much higher than his chances are of gaining them. The fact of the matter is that McMurray is more of a “be there at the end” driver than a “be in contention all race” driver. And while that can work out for someone in his salary range at a typical 1.5-mile race track, it’s not going to work at a place like Bristol. We’re set to run 500 laps here on Sunday (or probably Monday) and that means there’s a bunch of fastest lap and laps led FPTS up for grabs. Avoid McMurray this week–at least in DraftKings–and go with someone else in this price range that has place differential potential.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,100) – Fade opportunity. There’s been some confusion recently about the avoid list for DraftKings, with some assuming just because a driver is listed here that you should avoid like the plague. I assume those people simply don’t read the entire article. Anyway, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is a fade opportunity this weekend, which means he should be pretty high owned on Sunday (especially since DraftKings kept his salary so low) and that can pay dividends if he runs into trouble. I personally love taking Stenhouse at Bristol–considering he finished 2nd here last August and has an average finish of 10.6 in eight career starts–but as far as DraftKings goes this weekend, there’s a lot more negatives than positives with Ricky. First off, the #17 Ford was nearly un-drivable during the practice sessions on Saturday, and Stenhouse actually got into the wall and almost had to go to a backup car. The second major negative for him this weekend is the fact that he is credited with the 19th-place starting spot. That makes the window of opportunity even smaller since it requires an even better finish for maximum FPTS. Earlier this week, I projected Stenhouse would be on about 60% of my lineups, but now it’s looking like that number will be closer to 10%.
