NOTE: This is a brand new post this weekend for the race at Texas Motor Speedway. This will include final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday’s race, as well as projected FPTS for each driver. The charts below are explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me. If I have any last-minute thoughts on the race, I will add those to this post on race day, so be sure to check back.
- There’s going to be a lot of attention paid–maybe even too much–to the drivers starting in the back this weekend, but don’t forget to address the dominator points this weekend. Remember, while the drivers starting in the back are making their way through the field, the guys up front are going to be racking up 0.25 FPTS for each lap led and 0.5 FPTS per fastest lap. It’s going to be hard to post a fastest lap while in traffic, and obviously impossible to lead a lap.
- Strategy, strategy, strategy. With the tire situation being what it is, and with track position being so important, there should be plenty of teams that gamble on Sunday to get track position. Whether it be pitting in the middle of a stage or taking two tires while most others take four, this weekend’s race has the potential to get very wacky.
- Can Dale Earnhardt, Jr. turn things around? He’s in the same situation as Chase Elliott to start the race but comes in at $1,000 less in salary. That extra amount can be used to cover your bases for the dominator points, especially considering Brad Keselowski is priced so high this week. Also, it wouldn’t be surprising if a lot of other players skipped over Junebug this weekend while targeting Elliott/Kyle Busch/Larson. There’s a definite fade opportunity there.
Projected Base FPTS at Texas
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base FPTS–which doesn’t take into account fastest laps or laps led points–as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps or laps led–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by the average projected finish of the drivers.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Avg Proj Base FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Keselowski | $10,500 | 5 | 2.2 | 45.8 | $229 |
| Joey Logano | $9,800 | 4 | 3.8 | 41.0 | $239 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,500 | 33 | 4.0 | 69.6 | $136 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,000 | 1 | 4.2 | 37.2 | $269 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,300 | 32 | 5.4 | 65.2 | $158 |
| Kyle Busch | $9,900 | 34 | 5.6 | 66.8 | $148 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,200 | 7 | 5.6 | 39.8 | $256 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,700 | 24 | 9.0 | 50.0 | $194 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 3 | 9.6 | 27.8 | $317 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,300 | 6 | 10.4 | 29.2 | $284 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,100 | 2 | 10.8 | 24.4 | $332 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,300 | 8 | 11.6 | 28.8 | $323 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $8,500 | 37 | 12.8 | 55.4 | $153 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,000 | 17 | 13.0 | 35.0 | $257 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,800 | 9 | 13.8 | 25.4 | $307 |
| Erik Jones | $7,600 | 36 | 14.6 | 50.8 | $150 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,000 | 10 | 15.0 | 24.0 | $333 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,300 | 35 | 16.0 | 47.0 | $155 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,000 | 11 | 17.8 | 19.4 | $361 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,900 | 12 | 18.8 | 18.4 | $375 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,600 | 14 | 19.4 | 19.2 | $344 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,500 | 25 | 20.0 | 29.0 | $259 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,400 | 18 | 20.2 | 21.6 | $296 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,700 | 16 | 20.4 | 19.2 | $349 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,500 | 13 | 22.4 | 12.2 | $451 |
| Paul Menard | $6,800 | 22 | 23.2 | 19.6 | $347 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,200 | 20 | 23.8 | 16.4 | $439 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,300 | 19 | 24.2 | 14.6 | $432 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,000 | 38 | 25.8 | 30.4 | $197 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,600 | 15 | 27.2 | 04.6 | $1,217 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,800 | 28 | 29.2 | 13.6 | $426 |
| David Ragan | $6,200 | 21 | 29.4 | 06.2 | $1,000 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,700 | 26 | 29.8 | 10.4 | $548 |
| Reed Sorenson | $5,300 | 30 | 33.8 | 06.4 | $828 |
| Corey LaJoie | $4,500 | 23 | 34.6 | -02.2 | $0 |
| Derrike Cope | $4,600 | 40 | 34.6 | 14.8 | $311 |
| Timmy Hill | $4,800 | 39 | 34.6 | 13.8 | $348 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $5,100 | 31 | 34.6 | 05.8 | $879 |
| Gray Gaulding | $4,900 | 29 | 34.6 | 03.8 | $1,289 |
| JJ Yeley | $5,000 | 27 | 34.6 | 01.8 | $2,778 |
