The yearly race at Las Vegas is always one that is difficult to handicap simply because the track changes so much throughout the race. Because of that, we typically see three or four drivers exchange the lead for most of the day, as opposed to one driver going out there and dominating (like we saw at Atlanta last weekend with Kevin Harvick). Therefore, because of the laps led and fastest laps bonus FPTS being spread out like that, it’s more important than normal to avoid drivers that qualified better than they really are, or those that are just going to ride around all day and hope for a good finish at the end.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Las Vegas
DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Las Vegas Kobalt 400
Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,500) – This #78 team was, hands down, the best on the 1.5-mile race tracks last season, but just because they were fast last year doesn’t guarantee anything this year. Truex is now sharing resources with his new teammate, Erik Jones, and judging by last weekend, it looks like that addition may have slowed the #78 team down a tick (as expected by many). Truex qualified on the outside pole for Sunday’s Kobalt 400, but it’s hard to consider him a challenger for the win, and that fact in and of itself should make you avoid him here in DraftKings. Truex posted the fastest lap in Happy Hour on Saturday but even he admitted that the car isn’t quite where it needs to be. That could mean that it’s only going to get worse as the race goes on on Sunday. Las Vegas has never been a great track for Martin, although he did finish 2nd here two years ago. Still, that’s his only top 5 finish here in eleven career starts, and Truex has led a grand total of eight laps throughout his career here. I’d be surprised if he scores more than 40 FPTS in DraftKings on Sunday, and that’s not the kind of production you want out of a mid-$9,000 driver.
Denny Hamlin ($8,600) – There’s a big question mark associated with the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas this weekend, as they were subpar for most of the race at Atlanta last weekend. Add that to the fact that Denny Hamlin was their highest finisher in the Daytona 500 (17th) and it’s almost time to inch your finger closer to the panic button if you’re a Gibbs fan. However, there’s some things to like about the JGR cars this weekend at Las Vegas, as it looks like Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch have (at least) solid top 10 cars heading into Sunday’s Kobalt 400. Denny Hamlin, on the other hand, has continued to struggle this weekend. He qualified back in 15th, which isn’t terrible, but was just 26th-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday after ending up just 19th-best in Practice #2 earlier that day. Hamlin desperately needs a good run this weekend to turn his season around, but unfortunately he has never been good under pressure. As far as his record here at Las Vegas, he has just three finishes better than 15th in his last eight starts here.
Jamie McMurray ($7,600) – If you’re looking for just finish FPTS on Sunday, Jamie McMurray is a great option. But there are so many other ways to earn points in DraftKings that McMurray’s viability when he qualifies up front is close to zero. Jamie has been one of the most consistent finishers with this low downforce package, and while consistency is nice in most Fantasy NASCAR leagues, you’re trying to maximize your points when it comes to DraftKings. McMurray has finished between 8th and 16th in each of the last five Las Vegas races, and while he should easily make that streak six in a row here on Sunday, there are better options at or below his price range in DraftKings this weekend.
Aric Almirola ($7,000) – There’s quite a few reasons to avoid Aric Almirola this weekend, so let’s keep this short and sweet. Richard Petty Motorsports went down to a one-car operation during the off-season, and while this allows the organization to put more time and effort into the #43 car, it doesn’t look like it’s working out for them–at least early on in the season. Almirola was junk all day at Atlanta last weekend and looks poised to have a similar showing here at Las Vegas this weekend. He qualified 30th, which opens the door to a bunch of place differential points, but really it’s going to be luck more than anything if Aric ends up 25th or better on Sunday. He has finished between 24th and 26th in the last three races here, but at a salary of $7,000, there are much better options available this weekend.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,700) – Stenhouse is usually a nice sleeper pick whenever the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series stops at an intermediate track, but there are a couple of things that happened this weekend that caused him to be on the ‘avoid’ list for Sunday. First, Ricky qualified back in 29th. If you look back at his history at all race tracks, whenever he qualifies in the rear of the field, nine times out of ten he finishes back there, too. Stenhouse is just one of those guys that needs a good car from the start. Another strike against Ricky this weekend is the fact that he wrecked his primary car. The bright side for him is that hopefully the backup car will handle better, but that’s nowhere near a guarantee. Don’t be surprised if he finds the wall once again on Sunday. Stenhouse finished 12th in this race last season, but he also started 16th.
