The Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday afternoon is going to be one of those races where the track goes through some significant changes as the race wears on. That means we’re going to see some comers and goers over the course of the race, and we should see a few drivers who start mid-pack be up toward the front near the end. Looking at last year’s Vegas race, we had six drivers that started inside the top 10 also finish up there, while the other four qualified 11th or worse. In 2015, we saw the same ratio. Therefore, the best strategy this week in the FOX Fantasy Auto game will be a mixture of targeting the good drivers that start up front (for finish points) as well as those that should move up 10+ spots during the race.
My team points last week: 167
Overall team standings: 239th
Total team points for the season: 248
Top FOX Fantasy Auto Drivers for the 2017 Las Vegas Race
Kevin Harvick ($12,800) – The #4 Ford was too tight during qualifying on Friday and because of that Kevin Harvick is going to start from back in 19th when the Kobalt 400 goes green. So while he is by far the most expensive driver in the FOX Fantasy Auto game this weekend, he has to be in your lineup. Just a 10th-place finish out of “Happy” on Sunday will net FOX owners 40 fantasy points, and anything above that is just gravy. Harvick won the race here at Las Vegas back in 2015 and has ended up 7th or better in three of the last four races here. Over that same span, he has also led 166 laps and had an average driver rating of 110.7. You can’t pass up the potential place differential points this weekend even if 40% or more of FOX teams also have Harvick in their lineup.
Jimmie Johnson ($11,200) – It’s hard to guarantee anything in the Fantasy NASCAR world, but I can guarantee that Jimmie Johnson is not going to get a speeding penalty this weekend. That’s what doomed this team at Atlanta last weekend, and it is exceptionally rare for them to make the same mistake twice. Johnson is a four-time winner here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and that is over the course of fifteen career starts (26.7%). He has also finished 6th or better in four of the last five races ran in Sin City and has led at least 35 laps in each of those five races. “Seven Time” should be good for at least 45 fantasy points in the FOX Fantasy Auto game this weekend, which is right around the range you’re looking for out of your high-priced drivers.
Chase Elliott ($9,500) – For some reason, Chase Elliott’s salary in the FOX Fantasy Auto game took a major hit after last week’s Atlanta race, and he’s now probably the best best dollar-for-dollar driver in this league. Therefore, he’s going to be the highest owned. And while you’re not going to make up any ground by going with the crowd in Fantasy NASCAR, you occasionally have to simply do that and wait for the right time to strike. For Sunday’s Kobalt 400, the #24 Chevrolet will start from 12th, which is close to where Chase started last weekend at Atlanta (11th) when he went on to finish 5th. You can expect a similar race out of him this weekend. Elliott did run this race last season and ended up finishing 38th after starting 13th. However, don’t forget that he was caught up in a wreck having at least a solid top 10 run going for most of the day.
Ryan Newman ($9,300) – It’s easy to overlook “The Rocketman” when he doesn’t have a strong showing during qualifying, but try not to overlook him this weekend. Las Vegas has been a solid track for Ryan Newman over the course of his career, with eight total top 10 finishes over the course of sixteen career starts here (50%). However, four of those results have came in the last six Las Vegas races, and he has just one finish worse than 13th over that span. This weekend, Newman qualified 21st for Sunday’s Kobalt 400, but he should be able to challenge for a top 10 finish before it’s all said and done. The #31 Chevrolet hasn’t been super fast during the practice sessions this weekend, but don’t forget about the changes this track will be going through during the race. Newman is my “out of the box” pick this weekend, as only 7% of FOX teams had them in their lineup as of Saturday afternoon.
Other viable options: Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Joey Logano
Stay away from…
Kyle Busch ($11,500) – As of Saturday morning, nearly one in three FOX Fantasy Auto teams had Kyle Busch in their lineup, so I’m looking at this as a fade opportunity. So far in 2017, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have come out flat, and while those struggles are probably being over-exaggerated by many fantasy experts, it’s still something worth keeping an eye. So for the time being, I’d recommend being a little cautious when picking any of the JGR cars. As far as Kyle Busch goes, he will start from 9th on Sunday, so his place differential potential is a bit limited. He did finish 4th in this race one year ago but that is one of just two 10 finishes for Rowdy in his last six Las Vegas starts. Overall, the #18 Toyota should be a top 10 car in Sunday’s Kobalt 400, but if I’m using up $11,500 of my salary cap on a driver, I want him to be a potential race winner.
Kurt Busch ($11,200) – Might as well add the second Busch brother to this list. Statistically, Las Vegas Motor Speedway is Kurt’s second-worst track on the NASCAR circuit, sandwiched right there between Michigan at Martinsville. And while he has three wins at Michigan and two wins at Martinsville, Kurt has never been to victory lane here in Sin City, and has posted just one top 5 finish in fifteen career starts at his home track (6.7%). It is worth noting that this #41 team did come home 9th in this race last season, but don’t forget that they started on the pole for that race. This time around, Busch will roll off the grid from 17th, and while that does make him an attractive option for many FOX Fantasy Auto players looking for place differential points, it’s hard to envision the #41 Ford posting a top 10 finish on Sunday. In essence, Kurt probably isn’t worth the high price tag this weekend, as that money could be better spend somewhere else.
