As weird as it may sound, Sunday afternoon’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway is going to be a little different than other recent races. Whereas some drivers were implementing different strategies throughout the earlier races, the only drivers that really matter this weekend are the “Championship Four” of Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano. Expect all four of those drivers to end up near the front when it’s all said and done on Sunday, although there are a couple of outsiders that may try to spoil the party. We only visit Homestead once a year so it’s hard to base Fantasy NASCAR picks off of history here; there have been 35 other points-paying races since the last time we were here, and plenty of those were 1.5-mile venues as well. The drivers that have been strongest at those tracks this season should be strong this weekend, too.
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Homestead (over $9,500)
Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – If anybody is going to dominate the Ford EcoBoost 400 on Sunday, it’s going to be Kevin Harvick. Yes, he’s starting on the pole, which typically means he/she won’t be a very good pick in DraftKings, but Kevin Harvick is different. Qualifying isn’t really his strength, so when he qualifies up front, he has a damn good race car. In Practice #2 on Saturday, the #4 Chevrolet had the 8th-best ten-lap average, and in Happy Hour it was P1 on that chart. As usual, Harvick isn’t particularly great on the short runs, but we don’t anticipate having many of those this weekend. He could very easily lead 150+ laps on Sunday and end up in victory lane, too. If that happens, Harvick’s going to need to be in your DraftKings lineup.
Carl Edwards ($9,700) – The cheapest of the “Championship Four” also probably has the best car going into Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, so that’s good news. Cousin Carl is a two-time winner here at Homestead-Miami Speedway and is looking for his redemption victory here on Sunday after losing the championship to Tony Stewart here back in 2011. As far as this weekend, the #19 Toyota has been stout since the team unloaded it, and in Practice #2 on Saturday morning, Edwards had the best ten-lap average with the 3rd-fastest lap. In Happy Hour, he ranked 5th and 2nd on those two charts, respectively. It’s not very common for Carl Edwards to show that kind of speed during practice, so when he does, the competition should be concerned. Don’t be surprised if he leads quite a few laps and contends for the win this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,000) – Truex is actually available at a decent price point this weekend. Yes, $10,000 is still a big chunk of your DraftKings salary cap, but when you consider the fact that the #78 Toyota has consistently been the best car on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season, you could almost see it as a bargain. This weekend, Truex will roll off the grid from 6th when the Ford EcoBoost 400 goes green, but don’t be surprised to see him up there challenging for the lead during the first or second green flag run. If Harvick doesn’t lead the most laps this weekend, it’s probably going to be Truex. The #78 Toyota was the fastest car during Happy Hour on Saturday and Homestead has been one of Martin’s best tracks on the Sprint Cup Series circuit despite him never getting to victory lane here…yet.
Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Homestead (between $7,500 and $9,500)
Chase Elliott ($9,000) – The #24 Chevrolet has been super fast all weekend long, and it wouldn’t be that surprising if Chase Elliott was able to go out there and contend for the Ford EcoBoost 400 win here on Sunday. He’s never made a Sprint Cup start here at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but it’s not like this track is one that is super-unique like Pocono. As far as practice speeds go, Chase was 2nd-fastest in Practice #2 and wound up 5th-fastest in Happy Hour. In terms of ten-lap average, he ranked 3rd and 19th in those two sessions, respectively. The #24 team has been very strong on the intermediate tracks as of late and we fully expect that trend to continue here at Homestead on Sunday.
Kyle Larson ($8,800) – We expect a bunch of teams to own Kyle Larson this weekend, but when a driver his caliber starts back in 24th, that’s simply going to happen. The fastest way around Homestead-Miami Speedway is up against the wall on the top of the track, and if that fits anyone’s driving style in the Sprint Cup garage, it’s Kyle Larson. He’s made three career starts here at Homestead and has never finished worse than 15th–and we don’t anticipate that changing this weekend. Speed-wise, Larson wasn’t overly impressive during Practice #2 on Saturday morning, but in Happy Hour he had the 13th-fastest lap and the 2nd-best ten-lap average. As far as place differential potential, Kyle Larson is one of the best options this weekend to maximize those points.
Kasey Kahne ($8,200) – The #5 Chevrolet has been pretty much garbage all weekend long, but we’d advise you to not fall for the trap: Kasey Kahne should have one of the higher base FPTS score on Sunday. He qualified back in 29th for this weekend’s Ford EcoBoost 400, so the place differential potential there is very high. Additionally, this #5 team has been top 10 strong for pretty much the last three months, and we don’t see that suddenly changing here at Homestead on Sunday. Kasey hasn’t had a top 10 finish at this track since the 2011 season but he has ended up inside the top 20 in seven of the last eight races here, and five of those were also top 15s. We expect the #5 team to change pretty much everything on this car before the race on Sunday and be much better during the race than they have looked so far this weekend.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Homestead (under $7,500)
Ty Dillon ($6,600) – This is a very high price to pay for a driver who has only made ten starts this season, but the potential for Ty Dillon to score 30+ FPTS on Sunday is actually not too far out of reach. In most of his Sprint Cup starts, Ty tends to qualify further back in the field–as he did this weekend (34th)–and then just log laps on race day and end up somewhere in the mid-20s. We expect the same to happen this weekend. He’s in the #95 Chevrolet this weekend, which Michael McDowell has raced to some impressive finishes as of late, and the younger Dillon brother actually did run this race last season (he finished 23rd). If he could somehow pull off a top 20 finish on Sunday, the $6,600 price tag will be well worth it for DraftKings owners. Ty was 26th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday but slowed down a bit during Happy Hour (36th).
Paul Menard ($6,500) – Paul Menard has been anything but trustworthy this Fantasy NASCAR season, but when you get down in this price range, what more can you expect? This weekend the #27 team qualified back in 28th, but they should be able to improve a little bit on race day. Now the question becomes whether or not Menard will be able to get all the way up to the top 15? It’s not impossible, but don’t count on it. The good news is that in Happy Hour the #27 Chevrolet was 12th-fastest with the 15th-best ten-lap average, and in Practice #2, Menard was 7th on the ten-lap average chart. Additionally, he posted a career-best finish here at Homestead a couple of years ago (4th) and he has finished 21st or better in five of the last six races here. A 20th-place finish out of Menard on Sunday will net DraftKings owners 32 base FPTS.
Danica Patrick ($6,100) – Dollar-for-dollar, Danica Patrick could end up being one of the best options in DraftKings this weekend. She really performs at her best at the intermediate race tracks where she can just go out there and log laps. And if she’s able to stay on the lead lap throughout the race, Danica is usually good enough for a top 20 finish. Here at Homestead, she has made three career starts and has finished between 18th and 24th in each. Danica will start back in 30th for this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400 so that could easily turn into six or ten place differential FPTS before it’s all said and done. The #10 Chevrolet ranked 22nd on the ten-lap average chart during Happy Hour on Saturday.
