Whether you like the format or not, Sunday’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway is going to determine the 2016 Sprint Cup champion. And after the late-race madness at Phoenix last weekend, it’s going to come down to who finishes better between Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and Carl Edwards. Typically the best Fantasy NASCAR strategy here at Homestead is to ride with the Chasers and then go with drivers that have the “hot hand.” After all, at this point in the year, a lot of teams are just done with the season and are already planning what they’re going to do with their two months off.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Rankings for Homestead
Jimmie Johnson (6 starts remaining) – It’s hard to imagine any scenario where Jimmie Johnson isn’t the favorite this weekend. After struggling for most the 2016 season, this #48 team has absolutely turned things up a notch during the Chase. The #48 Chevrolet has arguably been the fastest car on intermediate tracks over the last three months and now that Jimmie Johnson is racing for his seventh Sprint Cup championship, that might be game over for the rest of the championship hopefuls. Johnson’s record here at Homestead is hard to analyze because there have been quite a few races where he’s just been riding around to finish the race, but his three straight finishes of 9th here is a good sign–for him, anyway.
Joey Logano (5 starts remaining) – It’s hard to pick which other Chaser to pair with Jimmie Johnson. And yes, we don’t see any advantage to going with anyone other than him, Joey Logano, or Kyle Busch–unless, of course, you’re going for the Hail Mary to end the season. We’re probably going to go with Logano, though, simply because of how well that #22 Ford has been running as of late. With his win at Phoenix last weekend, Joey has now finished 3rd or better in four of the last five races, and the only exception in that group was his 9th-place run at Martinsville. This #22 team could be peaking at exactly the right time on their way to collecting the 2016 Sprint Cup championship.
As we said, Kyle Busch is the only other A Group driver we’d even consider this weekend. He won this race last year and has finished 7th or better in three of the last four events here at Homestead. He should be a contender once again this weekend. Kevin Harvick has finished 2nd and 1st in the last two races here and is currently on a eight-race streak of top 10 results at Homestead. We think he can easily make it nine in a row here on Sunday, but as far as a potential race winner, we don’t see that happening. This #4 Chevrolet hasn’t quite been as fast in the Chase, and we think it’s because of their impending move to Ford (and not getting help from Hendrick).
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Jimmie Johnson, (2) Joey Logano, (3) Kyle Busch, (4) Kevin Harvick, (5) Brad Keselowski, (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Rankings for Homestead
Martin Truex, Jr. (1 start remaining) – Martin Truex, Jr. could very easily play the role of spoiler at Homestead on Sunday despite the fact that he has never won at this race track. Don’t forget that this has long been Truex’s best track, and up until a couple of years ago, the only time you really thought about putting him on your Fantasy NASCAR roster was at Homestead. The #78 Toyota has been the best car on the mile-and-half tracks this season and that’s not suddenly going to change with the final race of the year. In eleven career starts at Homestead, Truex owns an average finish of 10.2 and he has ended up 6th or better in three of the last five events here. If you have any starts left with him, he has to be on your roster this weekend.
Carl Edwards (1 start remaining) – Just like Truex, if you have any starts left with Carl Edwards, he has to be on your roster this weekend. Cousin Carl is a two-time winner here at Homestead-Miami Speedway and owns the 2nd-best career average finish here (9.3). The bad news is that he hasn’t had a top 10 here since his heartbreaking championship loss in 2011. The good news is that this is the perfect weekend for Edwards to get some redemption and finally get that coveted trophy. This #19 team only has three top 10 finishes in this year’s Chase, but at the last two intermediate tracks they have went to victory lane (Texas) and finished 2nd (Kansas). It’s going to take an incredible performance out of Carl Edwards to win here on Sunday, but he’s capable of accomplishing that.
Kasey Kahne (3 start remaining) – Kasey Kahne might have finished 13th at Phoenix last weekend but he had a top 5 race car once again. This #5 team has found something in the second half of the season, but that’s kind of coming to be expected out of Kahne. Over the last few years he seems to end the season on a high note only to go right back to his old self once the new campaign starts. Anyway, Kahne hasn’t had a top 10 here at Homestead since the 2011 season but he should have a very good chance at cracking that mark this weekend. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise us if all of the Hendrick cars found their way to the front by the end of this race on Sunday.
Kyle Larson (1 start remaining) – We have a feeling that a lot of the talk this weekend will be around non-Chasers winning this race. In addition to Martin Truex, Jr., Kyle Larson is a legitimate threat to win the Ford EcoBoost 400. This is an old, worn out race track where a guy riding the high line can really put down some fast lap times. Yep, that’s a perfect scenario for Larson. He posted a career-best finish of 5th in this race one year ago, and if the #42 Chevrolet is as fast this weekend as it has been for the last couple of months, Larson should be a threat for another top 5 result. He’s only made three Sprint Cup starts at this race track but Kyle’s average finish here is 11th.
If you’re out of starts with the top B Group drivers, Ryan Newman is a great option this weekend. The #31 team has found something as of late and “The Rocketman” actually has the 5th-best average finish over the last six races (11.3) of anyone in the Sprint Cup garage. He has three finishes of 7th or better in the last six Homestead races. Jamie McMurray has ran well here over the last couple of years, particularly in 2014 when he finished 5th. The #1 Chevrolet should be top 15 good this weekend. Austin Dillon has a lot of potential this weekend, but that #3 team isn’t having the best luck as of late. The car has been plenty fast, though. Austin finished 14th in this race last season. Other than that, there aren’t really any other great options in the B Group.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Martin Truex, Jr., (3) Kyle Larson, (4) Kasey Kahne, (5) Ryan Newman, (6) Austin Dillon, (7) Jamie McMurray, (8) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (9) A.J. Allmendinger, (10) Greg Biffle, (11) Danica Patrick, (12) Tony Stewart, (13) Trevor Bayne, (14) Paul Menard, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) Clint Bowyer, (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Rankings for Homestead
Alex Bowman is going to have quite a few people watching him this weekend after that dominating performance at Phoenix last weekend. It still seems crazy to say that he probably should have won that race. He should have another top 15 car here at Homestead this weekend. Still, Chase Elliott remains the top C Group option this weekend (if you have any starts left with him). He’s never ran a Sprint Cup race here, but the #24 Chevrolet has been one of the best cars on the 1.5-mile race tracks over the last ten races. Don’t be surprised if he challenges for a top 5. We’re out of Elliott starts so we’re going to pair Alex Bowman with Ryan Blaney this weekend. Blaney did run in this race last season and finished 17th after qualifying 6th. We expect him to finish in the top 15 on Sunday, but a top 10 might be hard to come by. If you’re out of Elliott and Blaney starts, Ty Dillon is in the #95 Chevrolet this weekend. He also ran this race last season (and finished 23rd).
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) Ty Dillon, (5) Chris Buescher, (6) Michael McDowell, (7) Landon Cassill, (8) Brian Scott, the rest
