Thanks to Carl Edwards’ (somewhat) surprising win at Texas last weekend, the Can-Am 500(k) at Phoenix is setting up to be one intense final stop on the way to Homestead. Currently it is Joey Logano and Kyle Busch that are in on points, but Matt Kenseth is just one point behind with Denny Hamlin two points back. And let’s not forget about Kevin Harvick, who is 18 points back, but has won six of the last eight races here at Phoenix and could leave just one points spot open if he were to grab another victory in the desert on Sunday. Can this #4 team come in clutch once again? Guess we’ll find out soon enough.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Rankings for Phoenix 2
Kevin Harvick (3 starts remaining) – This doesn’t even deserve an explanation, but at the same time, what Kevin Harvick has done here at Phoenix over the last few years is downright remarkable. In the last six races here in the desert, Harvick has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, and 1st. Overall, he’s won eight races at Phoenix International Raceway (double that of Jimmie Johnson) and has led at least 139 laps in each of the last five events at this track. As mentioned before, if Kevin Harvick is going to make it to Homestead, he’s going to have to win on Sunday, and there’s nobody more capable in the Sprint Cup garage. With that being said, it does seem like the field has caught up a bit to Harvick as of late–even here at Phoenix–and this #4 team still only has two top 5 finishes in this year’s Chase. We’re thinking about throwing a Hail Mary and going against Harvick this week, but the chances of that working out are slim to none.
Kyle Busch (2 starts remaining) – This #18 team notched another top 5 finish at Texas last weekend and has now finished 6th or better in every Chase race except for Chicagoland and Talladega (where they purposely finished in the 30s). Kyle Busch is our pick to make it to Homestead on points if Kevin Harvick is able to win this weekend’s Can-Am 500(k), but don’t be surprised if Rowdy is actually a legitimate contender in Phoenix on Sunday, either. Kyle won the pole the last time we raced here and ended up finishing 4th, and that makes it two straight top 5 finishes for him in the desert. For some reason, we don’t think Rowdy has entirely showed his hand in the Chase this season, and if that’s the case, a lot of people could be in for a surprise on Sunday.
Joey Logano will also be a contender to take the checkered flag on Sunday, as he has finished between 3rd and 9th in five of the last six races here at Phoenix. The #22 team seems to be finding more speed lately, too, as they have led in each of the last five Sprint Cup races, including the most laps at Texas last weekend. Matt Kenseth has never been great here at Phoenix but he’s been consistent, with four results of 12th or better in his last six races in the desert. He finished 3rd in this race two years ago. His teammate, Denny Hamlin, is going to need a repeat performance from March (he finished 3rd) and maybe some luck if he wants to make it to Homestead. It’s worth noting that he hasn’t had a driver rating of 100+ at Phoenix since 2012. Finally, Kurt Busch has to win if he wants to keep his championship hopes alive. He has four straight top 10 finishes here at Phoenix but hasn’t led a lap here since 2012.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Joey Logano, (4) Denny Hamlin, (5) Brad Keselowski, (6) Jimmie Johnson, (7) Matt Kenseth, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Rankings for Phoenix 2
Carl Edwards (1 start remaining) – We’d love to save Carl Edwards for Homestead, but we can’t leave him off of our roster this weekend at Phoenix. If you remember back to the March race here at Phoenix, the #19 Toyota almost dethroned Kevin Harvick’s #4 Chevrolet, and even though Edwards and his team aren’t really racing for anything this weekend, if they could get to victory lane on Sunday, that could open the door for two more Gibbs cars to make it to Homestead. We only plan on using our final Carl start if he can win this year’s Can-Am 500(k). His last win at this track came back during the 2013 season, but his only top 5 finish since then has been this season’s runner-up finish in March.
Kasey Kahne (4 starts remaining) – This #5 team just keeps rattling off solid finish after solid finish and has now posted a result of 12th or better in nine of the last ten Sprint Cup races overall. This kind of consistency out of Kasey Kahne is almost unheard of. As far as his record here at Phoenix, it’s been pretty up and down for KK, as is the case with most of the tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit. He’s finished 22nd and 26th in the last two races in the desert but before that he finished 11th or better in three of the last four. Richmond is probably the closest track to Phoenix configuration-wise and the #5 Chevrolet came home 6th there back in September. We’re expecting another top 10 run out of Kasey Kahne this weekend.
Kyle Larson (2 starts remaining) – We’re probably going to end up leaving at least one Kyle Larson start on the table, but there’s a chance that we could end up starting him both here at Phoenix this weekend and at Homestead in the finale. Larson has never finished better than 10th here at PIR but he has ended up between 10th and 13th in three of the last four races here, and that combined with the fact that this #42 Chevrolet has had more speed than normal as of late should bode well for him this weekend. Also, as mentioned before, Richmond is kind of similar to Phoenix, and Larson ended up 2nd to Denny Hamlin there a couple of months ago. We expect the #42 Chevrolet to be at least top 15 good this weekend, if not top 10.
Martin Truex, Jr. (1 start remaining) – We need to make up as many points as possible in these final two weeks to make a big push in the Yahoo! Auto Racing standings. Martin Truex, Jr.’s recent results here at Phoenix haven’t been phenomenal, but the alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing has to be helping him quite a bit, and don’t forget that the #78 Toyota led the most laps and finished 3rd in the Richmond race a couple of months ago. As far as Phoenix goes, Truex hasn’t finished worse than 14th here in the last four races and has had a driver rating in the mid-90s in all four of those events as well. We could definitely see him getting his first top 5 at Phoenix since the 2009 season in this weekend’s Can-Am 500(k).
Jamie McMurray is another solid B Group option this weekend, as he hasn’t finished worse than 16th here at Phoenix since the 2013 season, and that includes a career-best 2nd-place finish in last year’s March race here. One go-to guy on flat tracks is Ryan Newman, who has wound up 11th or better in five of the last six races here in the desert. If you’re out of starts with Edwards and Truex, “The Rocketman” should definitely make your team this weekend. As far as sleepers go, A.J. Allmendinger is someone to keep an eye on, as that #47 team has shown a whole bunch of speed as of late and A.J. has wound up 17th or better in four of his last six Phoenix starts. Aric Almirola is another sleeper that gets around Phoenix pretty well, with results of 13th and 10th in the last two races here and no finish outside of the top 20 since the 2010 season. Austin Dillon wound up 9th here back in March, and you have to wonder whether or not he will pay back Kevin Harvick like he hinted at last weekend in Texas. The #3 Chevrolet should be top 15 good this weekend.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Martin Truex, Jr., (3) Kasey Kahne, (4) Kyle Larson, (5) Ryan Newman, (6) Jamie McMurray, (7) Austin Dillon, (8) A.J. Allmendinger, (9) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (11) Greg Biffle, (12) Tony Stewart, (13) Danica Patrick, (14) Aric Almirola, (15) Trevor Bayne, (16) Clint Bowyer, (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Rankings for Phoenix 2
We used our final Chase Elliott start of the season to sweep the top 5 last week at Texas, so it’s going to be Ryan Blaney from here on out. In our opinion, the #21 team has been a tick better than expected on these flat tracks this season, so it’s not a terrible situation for this week’s Can-Am 500(k) at Texas. Blaney ran 10th here back in March. Chase Elliott is still the best C Group option in the desert, though, as he started 17th and finished 8th in the first race here at Phoenix this season. Alex Bowman is in the #88 Chevrolet once again this weekend and should be good enough for a top 20 finish on Sunday. Obviously he should only be used if you’re out of Elliott and Blaney starts. If you really need to dig deep, Michael McDowell keeps over-performing on a weekly basis, and he finished 26th in the first race here at Phoenix this season. He should end up inside the top 25 on Sunday.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Chris Buescher, (6) David Ragan, (7) Landon Cassill, (8) Brian Scott, the rest
Which of the 3 will do better then the other? Kurt Busch, Larson or Elliott?
Dominic, I’ll let you know what I think after the two practice sessions today. All three have top 10 potential.
Sounds good! Thanks
Dominic, I have Chase Elliott ranked 5th heading into Sunday. Kurt should finished between 6th and 8th, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Larson finished there as well.
Thanks for your advice. I went with Kyle Larson because he did well in practice and qualified 2nd.