One word we haven’t heard in a while might come into play with the AAA Texas 500 today: rain. Brian Neudorff estimates that there’s a 70% chance that NASCAR gets the race in today, with about a 55% chance of getting a full race in (read his article and any updates here). We’re going to approach this race without thinking of that factor, though, because there’s really no way to predict how teams are going to handle it. There’s really no clear cut favorite to win today’s race, and there are plenty of opportunities for place differential FPTS for some high-dollar drivers. What it’s going to come down to is whether it will be better to take one or two of those guys or whether someone like Brad Keselowski or Kevin Harvick (who both start in row 2 today) will take off and lead a bunch of laps, in which it would be more beneficial to have them.
Other posts to read: Drivers to Target at Texas 2 and Drivers to Avoid at Texas 2 posts.
Lineup #1
The more we looked at the numbers overnight, the more we thought that Brad Keselowski has the best chance to dominate this race. This Lineup also features Chase Elliott, who is a very boom or bust play this week. He has a car that can get to the front, and we saw him finish top 5 here back in April. Hopefully he can replicate that finish.
- Brad Keselowski
- Chase Elliott
- Carl Edwards
- Kasey Kahne
- Greg Biffle
- Trevor Bayne
Lineup #2
Kevin Harvick has a great long-run car for today’s AAA Texas 500, it’s just that he doesn’t get off to the best start. However, we anticipate a lot of green flag racing today, so that might not be a problem for him. He qualified 3rd, and when he starts up front and has a fast car, there’s some major dominator potential there. Jimmie Johnson is on there for the place differential factor.
- Kevin Harvick
- Jimmie Johnson
- Kasey Kahne
- Greg Biffle
- Trevor Bayne
- Chris Buescher
Lineup #3
This is another Lineup that assumes Brad Keselowski is going to dominate this race. We also have Kyle Busch on there, who needs to find a little more speed this weekend, but we’re confident that he will. He’s very good at this track, though, and if Rowdy can get things figured out here, he’s going to score a bunch of place differential FPTS.
- Kyle Busch
- Brad Keselowski
- Carl Edwards
- Kasey Kahne
- Greg Biffle
- David Ragan
Lineup #4
Joey Logano starts on the outside pole and although he hasn’t really dominated a race this season (outside of Michigan), he still hasn’t forgotten how to race at these intermediate race tracks. He’s also decently cheap this week, for his caliber anyway, so that allows you to take a chance on him.
- Joey Logano
- Chase Elliott
- Carl Edwards
- Kasey Kahne
- Ryan Newman
- Chris Buescher
