The list of drivers to avoid in DraftKings this weekend is actually pretty cut and dry compared to what we have had to decide in recent weeks. Martinsville is a track where the cream rises to the top, and driver talent plays more of a role than ever. There are typically one or two dark horse drivers that find their way to the front when the checkered flag waves, but they only have potential fantasy value if they qualify mid-pack or worse. Meanwhile, there are other drivers that simply aren’t good at this track–and never have been. There are probably more “for sure” drivers to avoid at Martinsville than any other track on the NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit.
The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Martinsville 2 Goody’s Fast Relief 500
A.J. Allmendinger ($7,300) – We have very high hopes for A.J. Allmendinger this weekend, but as far as having him in your DraftKings lineup, we wouldn’t recommend it. The Dinger qualified 4th for Sunday’s Goody’s Fast Relief 500, and while that is great for this #47 team, that severely limits his fantasy value in DraftKings. Allmendinger does have a good race car this weekend–he was 9th in ten-lap average during Practice #2 and 14th on that chart in Happy Hour–but not a good enough car to go out there and lead a bunch of laps on Sunday–and that’s the only way we could possibly consider him in DraftKings. Allmendinger has four finishes of 11th or better in the last five Martinsville races, but even if he comes home 10th on Sunday, you’re looking at just 28 FPTS in DraftKings. A.J. is a great option in most Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend but unfortunately not DraftKings.
David Ragan ($5,800) – Qualifying took out a bunch of the low-dollar driver options in DraftKings this weekend, and that includes David Ragan. He’s actually a very good racer here at “The Paperclip” but there’s no way that this #23 team is going to back up their 12th-place qualifying effort. Over the last four races here at Martinsville, David Ragan has finished 21st, 25th, 5th, and 10th, and while that 5th-place finish came when he was in the #18 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing, the other three finishes all came in other subpar equipment (yes, we consider Michael Waltrip Racing in 2015 as subpar). Like Allmendinger, David Ragan is a great Fantasy NASCAR option in most leagues, but not DraftKings: a 20th-place run from this #23 team
Chase Elliott ($8,600) – To be great at Martinsville Speedway, you have to know when to put the bumper to someone and actually have the balls to do it. And we’re sorry but “aggressive” doesn’t even belong in the same paragraph as Chase Elliott, let alone sentence. Chase could get wrecked on the backstretch and still find a way to blame himself. So while we have seen this #24 Chevrolet lead quite a bit if laps this season, we don’t see that happening here on Sunday, and unfortunately that’s what does need to happen in order to make Elliott a viable option in DraftKings since he qualified 5th for this year’s Goody’s Fast Relief 500. Laying down one fast lap at “The Paperclip” is entirely different than racing for 500 laps, and because of that we anticipate Chase Elliott slowly falling back as the race goes on this weekend. A top 15 would be good for this #24 team on Sunday, but not good for DraftKings owners.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Martinsville 2 Goody’s Fast Relief 500
Kurt Busch ($9,000) – We honestly don’t think Kurt Busch is a terrible option in DraftKings this weekend. He starts back in 23rd and typically has a race car that is good enough to finish inside the top 10 whenever we come here to Martinsville. The issue with Kurt is that he rarely ever gets the finish he deserves here. He did have that very surprising win here back in 2014 but that is Busch’s only top 10 finish in the last twenty-one races at this track. No, that’s not a typo. As far as a DraftKings lineup goes, we project Kurt to have 37 base FPTS on Sunday, but is that really worth the $9,000 salary? Obviously we don’t believe so.
Clint Bowyer ($7,700) – Clint Bowyer’s salary is the highest it has been in months and although he has a little bit of place differential FPTS potential this weekend due to qualifying 28th on Friday, that’s still not enough to justify the $7,700 price tag. If everything goes perfect for this team on Sunday and the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 turns into an attrition race, Bowyer might be able to eek out a top 20 finish. However, history has shown that the Chase races here at Martinsville are pretty tame, so that limits Clint’s viability this weekend. When we raced here back in April, the #15 Chevrolet started 30th and finished 25th, and we’re expecting a similar run out of this team on Sunday. Bowyer might be worth a shot if his salary fits into your lineup perfectly, but there are still some other, potentially better options that are cheaper than him this weekend.
“Flat-Out Avoid” DraftKings Driver for the Martinsville 2 Goody’s Fast Relief 500
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,400) – Typically a driver who qualifies 39th with decent equipment is a shoo-in on DraftKings lineups, but don’t be so sure with Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. at Martinsville this weekend. The fact of the matter is that Stenhouse is absolutely terrible here at “The Paperclip.” As in an average finish of 31.7 over his seven career starts here. And if you take out Ricky’s surprising 15th-place finish in this race two years ago, his average finish drops to 34.5. Yeah, terrible. Stenhouse might be worth a shot one one or two GPP lineups this weekend, just in case he somehow pulls a top 25 finish out of his ass, but nine times out of ten that isn’t going to happen at Martinsville. Honestly, we think Stenhouse will struggle to run inside the top 30 here on Sunday, and that’s if he even finishes the race.
