This weekend’s Goody’s Fast Relief 500 is the last true short track race of the 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup season, as we stop at the half-mile Martinsville Speedway to kick off the Round of 8. Despite being a very short race track, however, it’s not uncommon for drivers to move their way through the field here after bad qualifying efforts; when you analyze the last seven races here at “The Paperclip,” six of those events had at least five of the top 10 finishers start outside of the top 10. The key to getting to the front from mid-pack (or worse) here is to have a good long-run race car and also a little bit of luck. It’s very easy to get caught a lap down at Martinsville.
Our official Fantasy Racing Online FOX Fantasy Auto team ended up with 214 points at Talladega 2 last weekend thanks to a last-minute switch from Jimmie Johnson to race winner Joey Logano. We are now in 294th place overall and 2nd in our private group.
FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for the Martinsville 2 Goody’s Fast Relief 500
Brad Keselowski ($11,800) – We’d love to fit Kevin Harvick on our FOX Fantasy Auto roster this weekend, but it’s just very hard to fit in his $13,100 salary. So we’re going to go with the next best option, and that’s Brad Keselowski. On Sunday, Harvick will start back in 20th and Keselowski will be right by his side in 19th. Kez has never won here at Martinsville but he has a top 10 finish percentage of greater than 50% and has posted two top 5s in the last three races here–including a 5th-place finish here back in April. In Happy Hour on Saturday, the #2 Ford was 15th-best on the ten-lap average with the 6th-fastest overall lap. Now that this #2 team has been eliminated from championship contention, they have one goal and one goal only: win races. This can be either very good or very bad for fantasy owners, but the potential for a huge FOX Fantasy Auto day out of Keselowski is too good to pass up. We have a small concern that BK could be in full-out test mode for the rest of the season (which typically means avoid) but haven’t heard anything official regarding that.
Kyle Busch ($10,500) – Over 50% of all FOX Fantasy Auto teams have Kyle Busch on them this weekend (as of Saturday afternoon), and while that does present a pretty good “fade” opportunity, it’s hard to go against this #18 team right now. They dominated the race here at Martinsville back in April and Kyle also has four top 5 finishes in the last seven races here–including his 5th-place run in this event one year ago. As far as speed goes, Rowdy ranked 6th in ten-lap average during Practice #2 on Saturday morning and then wound up 2nd on that chart in Happy Hour that afternoon. The #18 Toyota will start from 9th when the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 goes green on Sunday, so there’s a little bit of room for place differential points there. We’re expecting another top 5 run out of Rowdy on Sunday.
Matt Kenseth ($10,200) – Since making the move to Joe Gibbs Racing, Martinsville Speedway has actually been one of the best tracks on the circuit for Matt Kenseth. If you look solely at his finishes, though, they don’t tell the same story. With that being said, Kenseth has finished 6th or better in four of the last six races at this track, and it wouldn’t surprise us if he added another this weekend. He’s going to have some work to do on Sunday if he wants to get up there, though, because the #20 Toyota qualified 17th for this year’s Goody’s Fast Relief 500. With that being said, Kenseth ranked 13th in ten-lap average during Practice #2 this weekend and wound up 12th on that chart in Happy Hour, so there’s speed there. Our main concern with Kenseth this weekend is the bad luck he’s ran into at short tracks this season, but now that it’s the Chase this #20 team should be on top of their game. If you’re not feeling Kenseth this weekend, you could also throw in Kurt Busch in this spot, but he has been terrible at finishing races here at Martinsville. Kurt qualified back in 23rd this weekend, though, so there’s definitely potential for place differential points.
Jeff Gordon ($7,500) – When driving the #88 Chevrolet this season, Jeff Gordon has just one finish worse than 16th, and we don’t expect that to change this weekend. Martinsville was probably Gordon’s best track on the Sprint Cup circuit throughout his historic career, as evidenced by his nine total wins here (including this race one year ago) and average finish of 6.8 over forty-six career starts. This weekend Gordon qualified 10th for the Goody’s Fast Relief 500, so there’s not a whole lot of room for place differential points, but he’s the safest option in FOX Fantasy Auto under $8,000. The #88 Chevrolet was 12th-fastest in ten-lap average during Saturday’s first practice session and wound up 6th on that chart in Happy Hour. We’ll gladly take a top 10 finish out of Jeff Gordon this weekend, especially at this low price.
Austin Dillon ($10,000) – This is a very high price to pay for Austin Dillon, but there’s a lot of potential FOX Fantasy Auto points here and we’re not about to pass those up. On Friday, Austin got into the wall during qualifying and wasn’t able to recover, so the #3 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 32nd when Sunday’s Goody’s Fast Relief 500 goes green. However, Dillon is no stranger to starting from the back here, so we’re not too concerned. Back in the April race here, Austin started 29th and thanks to some good strategy wound up 4th when the checkered flag flew, and in this race last season, he started back in 30th and wound up finishing 18th. An 18th-place finish this weekend would net 37 points in FOX Fantasy Auto. Overall, in five career Sprint Cup starts here at Martinsville, Austin Dillon has three top 15 finishes and just one result worse than 18th. The #3 Chevrolet was 17th-fastest in Happy Hour with the 16th-best ten-lap average.
EDIT 10/30/16: We’re loading up on Joe Gibbs Racing today, going with Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, and Tony Stewart
