The last time we were at Kansas Speedway, Martin Truex, Jr. led a whole bunch of laps but then had tire issues and Kyle Busch wound up in victory lane. This time around, there’s really no clear favorite, and it’s possible that we might see a handful of lap leaders come Sunday. That means that the list of drivers to definitely avoid is slimmed down a bit, but there are still quite a few that you should stay away from for the Hollywood Casino 400 this weekend.
The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Kansas 2 Hollywood Casino 400
Ryan Newman ($8,000) – Always remember this: one good run doesn’t erase twenty bad finishes. Yes, Ryan Newman ended up finishing 4th at Charlotte last weekend (and scoring 58 FPTS in the process), but let’s not forget how whacky of a race that was. There’s a reason that was just his second top 5 finish of this entire season. This weekend, Newman qualified 9th for the Hollywood Casino 400, and in our opinion that makes him a driver very unlikely do score high on Sunday. Now, the kicker here is that Newman has a nice record at Kansas (five straight finishes of 11th or better), but at a salary of $8,000, that money can be better spent elsewhere. Additionally, Newman looked like just another top 15 car during the practice sessions on Saturday, and that’s probably where he’s going to end up. Lightning rarely strikes twice, so if you got lucky with Newman in your DraftKings lineup, congratulations, but we wouldn’t count on that working out again here at Kansas.
Alex Bowman ($7,700) – DraftKings is finally starting to adjust Alex Bowman’s salary down to the right level, but he’s still not a viable option at Kansas this weekend due to his 5th-place qualifying effort on Friday. Yeah, we saw Bowman end up with a top 10 finish at Chicagoland last month, but in almost every other race he has ran for the #88 team this season, he has wound up disappointing fantasy owners. It’s honestly starting to look like the #88 crew is doing some major experimenting/testing on this car to get prepared for the 2017 season, but that wouldn’t really explain why Jeff Gordon can still knock off top 15 after top 15 when he’s in it. Bowman has the speed to get a top 15 at Kansas on Sunday (meaning he would be a good Fantasy NASCAR play in some leagues), but as far as his DraftKings value, he’s probably one of the worst driver selections this weekend, at least in his price range.
Paul Menard ($6,400) – Paul Menard is the master at appearing as a better Fantasy NASCAR pick than he really is, so don’t let those fast practice speeds this weekend fool you. And when you pair that with the fact that he has a very low salary in DraftKings this weekend, it’s even more tempting. But when you sit back and really think about, Menard probably isn’t going to work out as a good pick this weekend. This team now has five straight finishes outside of the top 20 and has wound up 21st or worse in eight of the last ten Sprint Cup races overall. If that continues and Menard finishes, say, 21st here at Kansas on Sunday, we’re looking at just 18 base FPTS out of him thanks to his 16th-place qualifying effort. He might be worth a shot in the event that the #27 team does finally put together a good race, but more likely than not, Menard is going to be one of the lowest-scoring drivers in DraftKings on Sunday.
A.J. Allmendinger ($7,000) – It’s the same story for the second week in a row for A.J. Allmendinger. He does make a solid sleeper fantasy pick here at Kansas (A.J. finished 8th here back in May and has wound up 14th or better in three of the last four races) but as far as a DraftKings driver, his value is extremely low thanks to his 10th-place qualifying effort. It’s not as bad as last week, where Allmendinger qualified 6th, but it’s close. A 15th-place finish out of this #47 team on Sunday would be an incredible effort, and that would still only net DraftKings owners 24 base FPTS. It might be worth the gamble if Allmendinger was priced down in the low-$6,000 range, but that simply isn’t the case. There’s no situation at all that you will find The Dinger on any of our DraftKings lineups this weekend.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Kansas 2 Hollywood Casino 400
Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,100) – Surprised? Don’t be. This weekend’s Hollywood Casino 400 is 267 laps in length. That means there’s roughly 130 bonus FPTS up for grabs for fastest laps, and around 65 FPTS available for laps led. And the only possible way that you can justify Martin Truex, Jr.’s crazy high salary this week is if he would be able to earn most of those FPTS, along with 20 or so place differential points. And that’s just not going to happen. The #78 Toyota will roll off the grid from 4th here on Sunday, but going into the Hollywood Casino 400, we don’t see Truex as the car to beat. In fact, there are actually a few other drivers that we see with a higher chance of leading the most laps on Sunday, despite the fact that Truex had the best car here back in May. So while it’s easy to see him have another 60+ FPTS day on Sunday, it’s nowhere near a sure thing, and that’s probably still not worth the $11,100 salary. Don’t fall into the trap this weekend.
Clint Bowyer ($7,300) – Honestly, Clint Bowyer was pretty over-priced at Charlotte last weekend (he was at $7,100) so now that DraftKings added another $200 to his salary, it’s hard to justify drafting him. Yeah, he starts back in 31st and this #15 team has a knack for pulling off top 25 finishes as of late, but that’s a decent-sized chunk of your salary cap to spend on a guy that’s nowhere near a lock. Obviously if he fits into your lineup, 30 FPTS is better than 25, but Bowyer hasn’t ran well here at Kansas since the repave (even in good equipment) and we don’t see why that would change this weekend. He did finish 19th here back in May but his driver rating of 54.7 in that race should tell you that it was more due to luck than anything else.
Jamie McMurray ($7,900) – Don’t get us wrong, there’s a whole lot of things to like about Jamie McMurray this weekend, but there are quite a few things to dislike as well. Let’s start with what to like. First is the fact that McMurray had another solid run at Charlotte last weekend and has now ended up 11th or better in six of the last nine Sprint Cup races overall. He also qualified 23rd for this weekend’s race, so the potential for place differential points is there. The #1 Chevrolet was also 10th-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday. As we said, though, there’s a few things we don’t like: Jamie’s salary is now the highest it has been in over two months. while we have seen McMurray plays pay off quite frequently as of late, this might be the week to jump off the train, as Kansas has simply not been a very good race track for him. In the eight races ran here since the repave back in 2012, McMurray has posted just one top 10 finish along with four results of 20th or worse. If he showed more long-run speed this weekend, we’d consider McMurray a “go against the grain” driver, but he ranked just 14th on the ten-lap average chart during Happy Hour on Saturday. He could very well be a great pick once again this weekend, but we don’t see it happening heading into Sunday.
