This weekend’s Citizen Soldier 400 might be one of the hardest we’ve had to handicap in quite a while. Qualifying was rained out on Friday, and while the Sprint Cup teams did practice that day, not many of them did race runs. There was then one practice session on Saturday morning, but the Happy Hour practice session got rained out. So we’re entering a race day with very little practice data to go off of, at a track where track position matters enough that the best car might not be able to make its way through the field very easily. We’re going to have to rely on historical data a lot this weekend.
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Dover 2 (over $9,500)
Kevin Harvick ($10,900) – When you analyze the last five races here at Dover, Kevin Harvick has undoubtedly had the one of the best race cars in each and every race. He has led 810 laps over that five-race span, and to put the impressiveness of that into perspective, Jimmie Johnson is second in that category with 299 laps led. And because of the limited practice time this weekend, Harvick should have an advantage over the rest of the field, and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if he went out and led a whole bunch of laps in Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400. The #4 team was also one of the few who worked on race runs during Friday’s practice session, and that should help as well. Harvick will start 6th on Sunday, so there’s room for a few place differential points, but we need him to lead a bunch of laps to make that $10,900 salary worth it–and we think it will happen.
Kyle Busch ($10,300) – We’re going to be a little different than everyone else this weekend and look at Kyle Busch over Martin Truex, Jr. Now, we still think that Truex is going to be a solid pick in DraftKings on Sunday, but Kyle Busch is a little bit cheaper and he might score more FPTS before the Citizen Soldier 400 is all said and done. Despite having a career average finish of just 15.3 at this track, Kyle Busch has led 1,037 laps in his twenty-three starts at “The Monster Mile,” which is 4th-most among all active drivers. In five of his starts (21.7%), Rowdy has led at least 90 laps. This weekend, Kyle Busch has the opportunity to lead a bunch of laps again, as the #18 crew were one of the few teams that focused on race runs in both practice sessions. Additionally, Busch finished 2nd in this race one year ago and has finished inside the top 10 in each of the last six fall events here at Dover.
Kyle Larson ($9,900) – Thanks to his less-than-stellar finishes in the first two Chase races, Kyle Larson will start Sunday’s race at Dover International Speedway from 12th, which instantly makes him a driver to target in DraftKings despite the high salary of $9,900. Dover is Larson’s best track on the Sprint Cup circuit and when we raced here back in May he posted a career-best finish of 2nd after leading 85 laps. What makes that even more impressive is that Kyle started way back in 23rd that day. Larson seemed happy with his race car during the two practice sessions this weekend, and after posting the fastest lap in Practice #1, he wound up 7th on the speed chart in Practice #2. Looking for Larson to challenge for a top 5 finish on Sunday.
Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Dover 2 (between $7,500 and $9,500)
Jimmie Johnson ($9,300) – Talk about under-priced. Jimmie Johnson has been to victory lane on ten separate occasions here at Dover, and while he hasn’t been great in the last two races here (finishes of 25th and 41st), “Six Time” does six top 5 results in the last nine races at this track and has ended up inside the top 10 in thirteen of the last seventeen. In Practice #2 this weekend, Johnson was happy with how his car was handling but the #48 Chevrolet was lacking in the speed department. However, with the notes that Chad Knaus has at this place, we wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson has a rocket ship come race day. He’ll start from 8th when the Citizen Soldier 400 goes green, and at $9,300, he’s almost a must-own in DraftKings this weekend. Jimmie Johnson is definitely a driver to build your lineups around on Sunday.
Chase Elliott ($8,900) – Despite his disappointing 13th-place finish last weekend, Chase Elliott once again had one of the strongest cars in the field at Loudon. Now we’re on to Dover, a track where Chase has made just one Sprint Cup start. However, that start resulted in a 3rd-place finish, and it really wouldn’t be that surprising if he wound up inside the top 5 once again this weekend. Chase wound up with the 6th-best lap in Practice #1 on Friday and then ended up 14th-fastest in Practice #2 with the 2nd-best ten-lap average. It seems like the speed is there for the #24 team this weekend, now it’s just going to come down to how the race plays out on Sunday. Elliott will start from 9th when the Citizen Soldier 400 goes green.
Kasey Kahne ($7,600) – Another wildly under-priced driver this weekend is Kasey Kahne, who we don’t have many bad things to say about. He’ll start Sunday’s race from 17th, but when the checkered flag waves on the Citizen Soldier 400, Kahne should finish much higher than that. In addition to having finishes of 6th or better in each of the last three Dover races, Kasey also now has four straight top 10 finishes after his very impressive 9th-place run at Loudon last weekend. Eventually he’s going to have a very bad week and ruin a lot of Fantasy NASCAR rosters, but until then it’s best to just roll with Kasey Kahne. We could see him finishing top 10 this weekend.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Dover 2 (under $7,500)
Clint Bowyer ($7,100) – This is going to be a risky pick if you go with Clint Bowyer on Sunday, but isn’t that how it is with every low-dollar DraftKings driver? The thing with Bowyer is that he has now finished 22nd in each of the last four Sprint Cup races overall and his record here at Dover is quite impressive; in twenty-one career starts at “The Monster Mile,” Bowyer has averaged a result of 11.9, and that includes his 12th-place finish here back in May while driving his terrible HScott Motorsports Chevrolet. He has now ended up 14th or better in each of the last eleven Dover races, and while that streak is going to very hard for Bowyer to continue on Sunday, a top 20 isn’t out of the question. The #15 Chevrolet ranked 6th-fastest in Saturday’s practice session, for what it’s worth.
Ty Dillon ($5,900) – We expect Ty Dillon to have a decently high ownership percentage this weekend simply because his potential is quite high on Sunday. First of all, he’s driving the #95 Chevrolet, which it should be mentioned finished 20th with Michael McDowell behind the wheel last time we raced here at Dover. Additionally, Ty is going to start back in 30th when the Citizen Soldier 400 goes green on Sunday, and considering he’s been a solid top 25 pick (at least) in the races that he has ran this season, we’re looking at a possible 30+ FPTS day out of a driver that is on the lower end of the salary scale. It’s nowhere near a guarantee but the potential is there for Ty Dillon this weekend. For what it’s worth, he’s finished inside the top 10 in five of his seven Xfinity starts here at Dover.
Danica Patrick ($6,100) – Believe it or not, Danica Patrick is quite under-priced this weekend. She actually runs really well at 1-mile race tracks and hasn’t finished worse than 21st in the last three Dover races. That includes her 13th-place run here back in May as well as her 15th-place finish in the 2015 May event. This weekend, Danica will roll off the grid from 24th when the Citizen Soldier 400 goes green, but if she’s able to get up into the top 15 again she makes an excellent option at her $6,100 price tag. With that being said, we only see Danica finishing that high if there’s a lot of wrecks on race day, and we’re not a fan of having to rely on that. If she fits in your roster, though, Danica should be good for around 30 FPTS on Sunday.
David Ragan ($5,500) – If you want to reach really deep this weekend, David Ragan is going to be your guy. He’s going to start way back in 32nd when Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400 goes green, but we’re expecting Ragan and this #23 team to move up quite a bit as the race goes on. If you remember back to the race here in May, Ragan wound up finishing 17th after starting 27th, and he has now wound up 22nd or better in each of the last three Dover races. Last year he was in the #55 Toyota for Michael Waltrip Racing, but that wasn’t exactly top tier equipment either. Overall, Ragan has a career average finish of 23.9 in twenty starts here at “The Monster Mile,” and if he can finish that high here on Sunday, DraftKings owners are looking at a 28+ FPTS day out of a very cheap driver.
