If recent trends continue this weekend, we could see some huge scores in FOX Fantasy Auto at Dover 2. When you analyze the last five races here at “The Monster Mile,” the average starting place of the winner has been 9.8 and there have been plenty of drivers that started in the back and finished up front. Six of the top 10 finishers in the May race here this season qualified 11th or worse, and we have seen around that same number (6.2) on average over the last five races as well. However, with qualifying getting rained out on Friday, that means the best drivers are starting up front and there will also not be any points awarded for place differential on Sunday. Therefore, our strategy is now to focus solely on finish points.
Last week at Loudon 2, we thankfully went with Austin Dillon instead of Greg Biffle and ended up scoring 213 points in FOX Fantasy Auto. That bumped our Fantasy Racing Online team up to 536th overall although we remained 3rd in our private league.
FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for the
Dover 2 Citizen Soldier 400
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,100) – It’s almost impossible to go against Martin Truex, Jr. this weekend. Dover is his home race track and the #78 team has been on absolute fire for the last month or so. Additionally, Truex has nothing really to race for on Sunday so he’s just going to try his best to get to victory lane. The #78 Toyota was one of the best cars in this year’s May race at “The Monster Mile” and we expect the same to be true in Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400 as well. Martin hasn’t finished worse than 11th here since the 2013 season and we don’t see that changing this weekend. The #78 Toyota was 10th-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and then ranked 28th on the speed chart during Practice #2 on Saturday morning. That may be concerning to some, but we’re not worried. Truex will start from 2nd on Sunday and should be out front all day long.
Kyle Larson ($10,800) – Kyle Larson needs a good run here on Sunday to punch his ticket into the Round of 12, and chances are he’s going to achieve that. Larson has loved this race track ever since he started racing in the Sprint Cup Series, and in his five starts here at “The Monster Mile,” Kyle has never finished worse than 11th. Additionally, this #42 team almost won here back in May (then finished 2nd) and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them challenge for the win here again this weekend. Larson was the fastest driver in Friday’s practice session and then ranked 7th on the Practice #2 speed chart on Saturday–and best among all Chase drivers. Larson feels good about his race car this weekend and we feel good about his high finish potential.
Matt Kenseth ($10,100) – This is a pretty low salary for a driver that has a decent shot at winning on Sunday–especially when there are no place differential points awarded in FOX Fantasy Auto this weekend. Kenseth went to victory lane when we were last here (in May) and has now finished 7th or better in five of the last six Dover races. And even though this #20 team finished 2nd at Loudon last weekend, they have to be thinking that they let one get away from them once again. Can they get to victory lane this weekend at Dover? We think it’s possible. Kenseth will start from 4th when the Citizen Soldier 400 goes green and was 3rd-fastest in Practice #1 this weekend before ranking 12th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday.
Chase Elliott ($9,600) – Chase Elliott made his first Sprint Cup start here at Dover back in May and could have maybe went to victory lane if the lap was 30 or 40 laps longer in length. Now the question becomes whether or not he will be able to replicate that kind of effort this weekend. The trend with Elliott this season has been that he’s as good if not better the second time around at race tracks, and that could very well be the case this weekend. Chase will start from 9th for Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400 and was 6th-fastest in Practice #1 this weekend before ranking 14th-best in the second practice session on Saturday. More importantly, however, the #24 Chevrolet had the 2nd-best ten-lap average on Saturday. We’re not expecting a top 5 run out of this #24 team on Sunday but at the same time it wouldn’t be all that surprising either.
Jimmie Johnson ($9,400) – What’s not to like about Jimmie Johnson this weekend? He’s a TEN-time winner here at Dover International Speedway and this #48 Chevrolet has been one of the fastest cars in the garage over the last few weeks. This weekend, Johnson was 5th-fastest in the first practice session on Friday and then ranked 19th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning. The latter ranking isn’t ideal, but we’re not overly concerned about that. Johnson has finished inside the top 5 in six of the last nine races here at Dover and has posted a top 10 result in thirteen of the last seventeen. We fully expect him to make it fourteen of the last eighteen here on Sunday.
An Alternative Roster for Dover 2
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,100) – Please see our notes above for Martin Truex, Jr.
Kevin Harvick ($13,600) – It’s hard not to consider Kevin Harvick as the favorite to win the Citizen Soldier 400 this weekend. He’s the defending winner of this race and also had the best car here, hands-down, back in May, but got mired back in traffic thanks to his pit crew and ended up finishing 15th. However, with him having such good speed in that race as well as in both Dover races last season, that’s really a pretty big advantage for Harvick because of the limited track time that the Sprint Cup teams got this weekend thanks to the weather. The #4 team did focus on race runs in Practice #1 on Friday and then ended up with the 8th-best lap in Practice #2 on Saturday morning. Harvick will be one of the drivers to beat here on Sunday and could win his second race in a row.
Matt Kenseth ($10,100) – Please see our notes above for Matt Kenseth.
Jimmie Johnson ($9,400) – Please see our notes above for Jimmie Johnson.
Jeff Gordon ($6,600) – In order to afford Kevin Harvick on this roster, we have to go down and grab a very low-dollar driver for Sunday. The good news is that Jeff Gordon is priced at just $6,600 this weekend, and surprisingly enough he is currently on just 25% of FOX Fantasy Auto rosters. We’re sure that will jump by the time rosters lock on race day but that is still noteworthy if you want to take a driver that not many others have this weekend. The good thing about Jeff Gordon this weekend is that he’s one of those drivers that can log laps and finishes races, and that should pay dividends on Sunday. He’s been a lock for top 15 finishes all season long in that #88 Chevrolet and he’s also a five-time winner here at Dover. However, what we really like the most about Jeff this weekend is his speed: the #88 Chevrolet was fastest in Saturday’s only practice session and had the 3rd-best ten-lap average as well. Gordon starts back in 18th but should be near the top 10 when the checkered flag waves.
