We go from one 1-mile race track to another as the Sprint Cup Series stops at Dover International Speedway for the Citizen Soldier 400 on Sunday. However, even though it is the same length as the race at Loudon last week, the two tracks couldn’t be more different. Dover races more like an intermediate track with 24-degree banking in the turns and 9-degree banking on the straightaways. Additionally, Sunday’s race is a full 400 miles, a 33% increase from last weekend’s 300-mile event. Chevrolet has won six of the last seven races here at Dover, although it was Matt Kenseth’s Toyota that went to victory lane when we were last here in May.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Rankings for Dover 2
Kevin Harvick (5 starts remaining) – We foolishly left Kevin Harvick on the bench last weekend at Loudon and we all know how that worked out. Hopefully we don’t make the same mistake twice. Dover is very similar to Loudon in the fact that the #4 Chevrolet has been the best car here for the last four or five races but doesn’t have a whole lot to show for it. Harvick did win this race one year ago (when he had to in order to advance in the Chase) and probably had the best car here back in May but his pit crew got him stuck back in traffic and he ended up finishing 15th. However, ever since changes were made with the #4 crew members a couple of weeks ago, they have been on point every week, and we expect that trend to continue. Harvick isn’t a driver that’s going to take his foot off the gas just because he’s locked into the next round, and he should be a threat to win this weekend’s Citizen Soldier 400.
Jimmie Johnson (7 starts remaining) – Jimmie Johnson is a ten-time winner here at Dover and with the speed this #48 team has suddenly found, we’re going to go out on a limb and say that Johnson wins the Citizen Soldier 400 on Sunday afternoon. This is just a hunch, and obviously our prediction may change after qualifying and practice, but this team is due: the #48 Chevrolet hasn’t been to victory lane in over six months. Johnson has had a rough past two races here at “The Monster Mile” but in the thirteen races before that he had just three results worse than 4th. From an ownership percentage, less than 20% of Yahoo! teams had Johnson at Loudon last weekend, and it might be that low once again. This is the perfect opportunity to capitalize by being different.
Matt Kenseth should have won last weekend but he might get his redemption here on Sunday. The #20 team got the win here back in May (Kenseth’s third at the track) and they have has finished 7th or better in five of the last six Dover races. The #11 team and Denny Hamlin finally had a bad race at Loudon last weekend and will probably be points racing at Dover this weekend. He has just one top 5 finish in the last twelve races here so go ahead and let Hamlin sit this one out. Kurt Busch is either really good or really bad here. He finished 5th back in May but why would you go with him when there’s so many other better (and more reliable) options? Kyle Busch is the same way but we have a bit more confidence in him this weekend. The Penske Fords of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski will hopefully have more speed this week and won’t need some well-timed cautions to get a decent finish. Kez has ended up 6th or better in five of the last eight Dover races.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Matt Kenseth, (3) Jimmie Johnson, (4) Brad Keselowski, (5) Kyle Busch, (6) Joey Logano, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Rankings for Dover 2
Martin Truex, Jr. (3 starts remaining) – Here’s our approach in the B Group this weekend: we’re going to go with two “heavy hitters” along with two drivers that should finish up front if we decide to save our “heavy hitters.” The first of those is Martin Truex, Jr., who is on absolute fire right now. He had one of the best cars in every single race during September and that should continue this weekend at Dover. Truex hasn’t finished worse than 11th in the last five races here at “The Monster Mile” and led 47 laps in the May race this season and ended up 9th even after getting caught up in a wreck during the race. We’d like to save our Truex starts for the remaining intermediate race tracks, but if he looks like he could win Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400, it’s going to be hard not to start him.
Kyle Larson (2 starts remaining) – Larson has been a fantasy stud at Dover ever since he started racing in the Sprint Cup Series and now that he’s right on the cutoff line of missing the next round of the Chase, we expect the #42 team to turn things up this weekend. In Larson’s five career starts here at “The Monster Mile,” he’s never finished worse than 11th and he came home with a career-best 2nd-place finish here back in May after leading 85 laps. This #42 team hasn’t had a top 5 finish in their first two Chase races but it’s very possible that they grab one this weekend.
Kasey Kahne (6 starts remaining) – If you are still doubting this #5 team’s speed, we’d like to hear your argument because Kasey Kahne started dead last at Loudon last weekend and still came home with a top 10 finish. That’s his fourth straight result inside that mark and seventh top 15 in the last eight Sprint Cup races overall. Here at Dover, Kahne has had his fair share of mediocre races, but in the last three events at “The Monster Mile” he has ended up 4th, 6th, and 4th, and it really wouldn’t be that surprising if Kasey finished inside that mark once again this weekend. The entire Hendrick Motorsports organization has found a bunch of speed over the last month and you should ride the momentum wave while you can–especially with Kahne.
Jamie McMurray (4 starts remaining) – Jamie McMurray had a top 10 run going all day at Loudon last weekend, but the #1 team’s decision to pit late really killed them and relegated them to a 19th-place result. McMurray now needs a strong run at Dover (and a little bit of luck) if he wants to make it to the second round of the Chase, and while it’s not possible to predict the luck factor, Jamie should have a solid race this weekend. Over the last six Sprint Cup events here at Dover, McMurray has finished 13th or better four times, and two of those were top 10 efforts (both races last season). The #1 Chevrolet ended up 21st when we ran here back in May but McMurray should have a much better car for the Citizen Soldier 400 here on Sunday.
It’s pretty slim picking in the B Group this weekend. Carl Edwards some what ended his skid at Loudon last weekend with his only top 10 finish in September. He currently has a 16-point cushion to get into the next round of the Chase, but it could end up being closer than most people think: Carl has just one top 10 result in his last nine Dover starts. He won’t make our roster this weekend. Ryan Newman has finished between 16th and 19th in the last three Dover races, and while he does have two top 10s in the last six races here, those are two of just four in the last eighteen. This will probably be the week that Austin Dillon gets eliminated from the Chase (as we predicted). He’s never finished better than 20th in six career starts here at Dover. From a sleeper perspective, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. has been good here at “The Monster Mile” lately, with an 8th-place result in this race last season and a 14th-place finish back in May. His girlfriend, Danica Patrick, is another good sleeper, as she has finished 13th, 21st, and 15th in the last three Dover races and she’s coming off of that decently strong run at Loudon.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr. (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Kasey Kahne, (4) Carl Edwards, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Tony Stewart, (8) Austin Dillon, (9) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (10) Danica Patrick, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Clint Bowyer, (13) Paul Menard, (14) A.J. Allmendinger, (15) Greg Biffle, (16) Aric Almirola, (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Rankings for Dover 2
The C Group has a lot of potential this weekend, as Chase Elliott (2 starts remaining) finished 3rd here back in May while Ryan Blaney (5 starts remaining) wound up 8th. Also, Jeff Gordon is back in the #88 Chevrolet this weekend, and with five wins at “The Monster Mile” and a knack for rattling off top 15 finishes this season, Gordon could easily wind up with a top 10 finish here on Sunday. Also, Ty Dillon will be in the #95 Chevrolet this weekend. In our opinion, he’s not really a viable option here in Yahoo! unless you’re completely out of Elliott and Blaney starts. However, in other Fantasy NASCAR leagues, Ty could be a very valuable pick on Sunday. As far as our Yahoo! team, we’re going to stick with Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney at Dover 2, but we might change our mind before lockdown and throw Jeff Gordon on there.
EDIT: We made a last-minute switch to Jeff Gordon and Ryan Blaney.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Jeff Gordon, (4) Ty Dillon, (5) Chris Buescher, (6) David Ragan, (7) Cole Whitt, (8) Landon Cassill, the rest
