We’re set to run 300 miles at New Hampshire Motor Speedway today, and because it is a 1-mile race track, that means 300 laps–along with 75 laps led FPTS and 150 fastest lap FPTS up for grabs. Also, because this is a short track, that means things can change very quickly here and one mistake can either ruin your day or put you right back up into the money. With our Lineups, we’re going to try and focus on dominators while filling the rest in with movers and high finishers. Going into the race, we think Martin Truex, Jr. is the guy to beat and who will lead a bunch of laps, the question is just who else is going to lead today. Pole sitter Carl Edwards is a possibility, as he showed speed in both practices on Saturday and starts up front, as well as Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Kevin Harvick–as soon as he can get to the front from his 19th-place starting spot.
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As usual, we may add a few more lineups before the race starts.
Lineup #1
The success of this lineup is going to hinge on Martin Truex, Jr. dominating at least the first part of the race as well as Kasey Kahne maintaining his starting spot (9th) as best as possible. If Kahne is able to record 15 or so fastest laps today, he should be well worth the risk in drafting. That #5 car has had a bunch of speed for the last couple of months and Kahne has more momentum than we’ve seen him have in quite a while.
Lineup #2
If you think pole sitter Carl Edwards has the dominant car to start today’s Bad Boy Off Road 300, then this Lineup is for you. Harvick, Edwards, and Hamlin all have top 5 potential today, while Austin Dillon has a lot of place differential potential. If you read our Drivers to Target article, you know the reason why we like Almirola today, and Landon Cassill is the best option available under $6,000–he starts back in 34th and finished 28th here back in July.
Lineup #3
This Lineup lacks a true dominator on it, but if something were to happen to both Carl Edwards and Martin Truex, Jr. early in the race today, then Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin are right there to assume the lead. As far as finish FPTS go, this Lineup has four potential top 7 finishers, and Stenhouse might be able to sneak out a top 15 before it’s all said and done.
Lineup #4
We’re really confident in Martin Truex, Jr. dominating this race today, and we’re confident that Austin Dillon and Greg Biffle are going to get a bunch of place differential FPTS as well. So this Lineup should score pretty high if our projections are correct (and if none of these guys wreck). You could replace Denny Hamlin with Kyle Larson on this Lineup if you’d like.
Lineup #5
There’s no way that the Penske cars can be that bad, right? Neither Joey Logano or Brad Keselowski have shown much speed this weekend, but their records here at Loudon lately have been great, and it’s hard to believe that they won’t be roaring to the front once today’s Bad Boy Off Road 300 goes green. With both starting outside the top 10, there’s great place differential potential there.
I am to the point of giving up on Aric Almirola. I really like the guy and early in the year ran him a bunch. BUT, lately they are, wel, borderline junk! In the last 10 races they rank 29th and have only 4 top 20 finishes. I have been burned too often. I wish Aric luck and it may cost me some $$ today but I cannot, will not, go with him on my lineups.
I really like Austin Dillon as a difference maker today. I agree with those who believe he will get all the assets of RCR piled on top of this race today. Hope it helps.. I am going all in on the 3. I am not a big fan of his pit…stuck between Logano and Bowman (yikes) but still gotta take a few risks..
Almirola isn’t my ideal pick today either. Everything you said is correct. With the first five Lineups, he just fit because of his low price. I’d still rather have him than Cassill, you know?
Agreed on Dillon, and Biffle just has a knack for getting in the teens. I really like The Biff today.
I’m going to work on a few more Lineups without Almirola and I’ll get those posted later.
thanks! I want to pick Edwards too but I really think he is basically points racing. I doubt he makes a top 5. He would be very happy with 10 or 11 I bet.
well you were right! That is why you are the EXPERT!! Thanks for your insight again.
Biffle killed me in a lot of my Lineups. Oh, well. Can’t win every week.
line up 1; 303 points big money IF I had just gone with it.. hope you did well..