With this weekend’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 at Chicagoland Speedway, the 2016 Chase for the Sprint Cup officially kicks off, and from a Fantasy NASCAR perspective you can expect the races to get pretty predictable from here on out. All of the teams in the Chase will be turning things up a notch, and don’t be surprised if the top 12 or so are all Chasers in most of the races in the first couple of rounds. Looking at Chicagoland, this is a 1.5-mile track that we visit just once a year where starting position usually doesn’t mean much: the five winners at Chicagoland have started 29th, 25th, 10th, 13th, and 26th. However, with qualifying getting rained out on Friday, that means that all of the best cars (Chasers) will start up front, and that’s probably where the winner will come from as well.
REMEMBER: There are no place differential points awarded in FOX Fantasy Auto this weekend! We’re focusing solely on finish points this week.
In last week’s Richmond race, we were almost lucky to walk out of there with a 131-point week since we got 10 total points from Carl Edwards and Paul Menard. Any time you can escape a wreck-fest like that with a somewhat-decent score, you’re doing alright. We slipped back to 675th overall but still sit 3rd in our private league.
FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for the Chicagoland TMNT 400
Brad Keselowski ($12,800) – There’s not many thing to dislike about Brad Keselowski this weekend. Supposedly Penske Racing saved their best stuff for the Chase, and if that’s true, they’re going to be pretty hard to beat considering the organization won five of the first twenty-six races of the season. As far as Keselowski goes, he won the races here at Chicagoland in 2014 and 2012, and he also hasn’t finished than 8th at this track since the 2010 season. Momentum-wise this #2 team has posted four top 5s in the last six Sprint Cup races overall, and speed-wise Keselowski has been one of the fastest over the three practice sessions this weekend (____). Finally, BK will roll off from 2nd on Sunday thanks to qualifying getting rained out, and he should be up front all day long. It’s a pretty high price to pay (although not as bad as Harvick’s ridiculous $14,400 salary this weekend) but Bad Brad should be well worth it at Chicagoland this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,600) – As far as fantasy value goes, you’re not going to get much more bang for your buck than with Martin Truex, Jr. at $9,600. This #78 Toyota has been the hands-down best car on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season, at least as far as in-race performance goes–we all know how this team doesn’t like to actually finish up front. Chicagoland is another track where Truex hasn’t run particularly well at in the past, but this is one of those drivers where you can really throw history out the window. Martin has never posted a top 5 finish at this race track but he is poised to finish that high here on Sunday; the #78 Toyota was right there with the fastest in Friday’s practice session and in Saturday’s Happy Hour, Truex was 4th in terms of ten-lap average. After their run at Richmond last week, this team has back-to-back top 5 finishes for the first time all season and could definitely make it three in a row here on Sunday. With that being said, you never know when bad luck is going to strike this #78 bunch, and this week would be a perfect opportunity to fade Truex (almost half of all FOX Fantasy Auto teams had him as of this post). With this race being all about finish points, that isn’t a terrible idea…
Kyle Busch ($10,300) – You could pick any of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers in this spot but we’re going to go with Kyle Busch here. He’s the pole sitter for Sunday’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 race and is a previous winner at this track (back in 2008 when he also started from the pole). Currently Rowdy is on a four-race streak of top 10 finishes at Chicagoland and we’re looking for him to make it five in a row this weekend. In addition to have the best starting spot for this weekend’s race, the #18 Toyota also looked pretty sporty during the weekend’s practice sessions. In Happy Hour specifically, Busch posted the 3rd-fastest lap and wound up 8th on the ten-lap average chart. What we really like about Kyle Busch this weekend is that he is running all three NASCAR races; he won the truck race on Friday night and had the best car in the Xfinity race on Saturday. This is somewhat of an advantage because Kyle will know what to expect from the race track on Sunday. Look for this #18 team to challenge for a top 5 finish in the TMNT 400.
Jimmie Johnson ($9,300) – We’re probably going big on Jimmie Johnson this weekend because the speed in that #48 Chevrolet is just too fast to ignore. After being the fastest in both overall speed and ten-lap average on Friday, Johnson was 2nd in ten-lap average in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and wound up 1st on that chart during Happy Hour. The six-time champion has never won here at Chicagoland, but he does have top 5 finishes in half of his fourteen starts here and owns a series-best average finish of 9.3 at this track. Yes, Johnson has been the least reliable Fantasy NASCAR pick over the last three months but don’t just throw away the fact that we’re now in the Chase. The last time the #48 Chevrolet had this much speed was at Michigan and Johnson ended up 6th there. Also, Las Vegas is a track that is quite similar to Chicagoland and Jimmie wound up 3rd there back in March. He’ll roll off the grid from 8th here on Sunday.
Chase Elliott ($8,000) – Considering there are no place differential points awarded in FOX Fantasy Auto this weekend, your best bet for a low(er)-dollar driver is Chase Elliott. This type of track is where the #24 team has ran their best this season and it really wouldn’t be all that surprising to see them pull out a top 10 finish here on Sunday. During the first practice session on Friday, Chase was 5th-fastest on the speed chart, and during Saturday’s sessions he backed that speed up by posting the 12th- and 2nd-best laps. His ten-lap average ranked 8th-best in Practice #2 and 2nd-best in Happy Hour. Elliott has never made a Sprint Cup Series start at Chicagoland Speedway but he has won here before in the Xfinity Series and finished 9th at Kansas earlier this year, which is somewhat similar to this weekend’s venue. By the way, if you want to go a little deeper and increase your money available for the high-dollar guys, Ryan Blaney ($6,300) is another option in this spot. The #21 Ford has showed some speed this weekend and Blaney wound up 6th and 5th at Las Vegas and Kansas this year. Our only concern with him is that he has only had one single-digit finish in the last fourteen races, but a 12th-place result or so wouldn’t be terrible for that price.
EDIT: We did not go with the roster above, instead opting for Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, and Jimmie Johnson.
