Our initial reaction after looking at the DraftKings prices this weekend as well as practice speeds and qualifying results was that this is going to be a tough race to put together a good roster. All of the best drivers for Saturday night’s race cost so much money that we’re going to have to decide which ones are the best and then build around them and strategically pick the lower-dollar guys. There’s just one problems: the pickings are slim down there. When you throw in the fact that this weekend’s race could end up being very unpredictable in the end, it might pay off to go against you initial thoughts when it comes to some drivers on Saturday night.
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Richmond 2 ($9,600 or above)
Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – The highest-priced driver is going to have a pretty high draft percentage this weekend, and for good reason: Harvick will roll off the grid from 19th when this year’s Federated Auto Parts 400 goes green on Saturday night. This might be concerning to some people considering we’re racing at a short, 0.75-mile race track, but, believe it or not, passing isn’t terribly difficult here at Richmond and Kevin Harvick has a great car to do that. His short run speed might not be there but as far as long run speed, the #4 Chevrolet is probably one of the best cars in the garage heading into Saturday. Harvick should definitely be a top 5 threat for this weekend’s race, and we actually have him as one of the potential race winners despite the poor qualifying effort. He’s finished inside the top 5 in three of the last four races here, by the way. We should see a huge FPTS score out of Harvick this weekend, and although we wouldn’t really recommend it, there is a fade opportunity here if the #4 team runs into trouble during the race.
Carl Edwards ($10,000) – Kyle Busch is another high-dollar driver that should have a very solid night here on Saturday night, but we’re going to spend some time talking about Carl Edwards here. If you remember back to the race here in April, he led the most laps (151) and ended up in victory lane after starting 4th. This time around, Carl will have a little more work to do (he starts 13th on Saturday night), but that #19 Toyota is more than capable of coming away with a top 5 finish in this year’s Federated Auto Parts 400. One thing we really like about Carl this weekend–in addition to being the most recent winner here–is the fact that he almost won at Phoenix, which is kind of similar to Richmond. As far as ten-lap average goes, Edwards was 3rd on that chart in Practice #1 on Friday and ended up with the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour that afternoon. He disappointed big time at Darlington last weekend but Carl Edwards is poised for a huge bounce back this weekend at Richmond.
Matt Kenseth ($9,900) – The #20 Toyota absolutely dominated this race one year ago and we’re hoping that Matt Kenseth has a similar car with him this weekend. He qualified 3rd for Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400, and if Kenseth is as fast as we think he is this weekend, he could put up a huge week in DraftKings. Honestly, we have the lap leader coming down to either him or pole sitter Denny Hamlin, and we’ll get to the latter here soon. Kenseth has finished 7th or better in seven of the last eight Richmond races and he should easily make it eight of the last nine this weekend. He ranked 2nd in ten-lap average during the Happy Hour practice session and whenever Matt Kenseth qualifies up front and practices well, the competition typically takes notice.
Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Richmond 2 (between $7,500 and $9,500)
Denny Hamlin ($9,500) – For whatever reason, whenever Denny Hamlin comments on his race car, he tends to perform the opposite during the actual race. For example, last weekend at Darlington, the #11 team quit practice early because they didn’t think they could make the car any better. Hamlin came home 4th in that race but it wasn’t the dominant car that we were expecting. This weekend, Denny is one the pole but when he was interviewed after qualifying it seemed as though he had absolutely no faith in the #11 Toyota on Saturday night. Now watch, he’ll probably go out and dominate this year’s Federated Auto Parts 400. As we said before, we think the laps led leader will either be Matt Kenseth or Denny Hamlin, and while our gut says the former, the #11 Toyota is fast enough to score a bunch of FPTS on Saturday night. Hamlin was 3rd in ten-lap average during final practice on Friday and has finished 6th in each of the last two Richmond races. He’s going to need to lead quite a few laps to make it worth rostering him, but he has a car capable of doing so.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,300) – This is nowhere near a guarantee to happen, but we could definitely see Martin Truex, Jr. adding to his laps led total this weekend at Richmond. After his win at Darlington last weekend, Truex has now led 1,041 laps this season, which is by far his best in his career thus far. He’s only led a total of 48 laps here at Richmond in his twenty-one career starts but that could easily change here on Saturday night. That #78 Toyota has Gibbs and Toyota power and they are really going to shine in the Federated Auto Parts 400. Truex will start 6th once the green flag waves on Saturday night but he has a car that could challenge for the win depending on how the race plays out. In addition to having the 2nd-best ten-lap average during Practice #1 on Friday, Truex ranked 5th on that chart in Happy Hour. He has just one top 5 finish here at Richmond but could very well grab a second this weekend.
Chase Elliott ($8,400) – Hello place differential FPTS! The #24 Chevrolet was absolute garbage all day on Friday and because of that Chase Elliott will be starting back in 34th when the Federated Auto Parts 400 goes green on Saturday night. We see nothing but points racking up, though. This kid is still not locked into the Chase, but he basically is so he needs to go out and at least finish this race–and you can bet your ass that Rick Hendrick will make sure that that #24 machine is a totally different car come race day. Chase has made two Sprint Cup starts here and has ended up 12th and 16th. While we don’t see him finishing that high this weekend, we also wouldn’t put it past him, either. A 20th-place effort out of Chase on Saturday night is going to give us 38+ FPTS, and for that reason we view him as a must own in DraftKings this weekend.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Richmond 2 (under $7,500)
EDIT: After analyzing everything overnight, we realized Danica Patrick should have been included on this list. Check out our Optimal Lineups post (specifically #4) to see why.
Paul Menard ($6,500) – Despite having a pretty rough 2016 season, Paul Menard has actually been quite valuable in DraftKings over the last couple of months, scoring at least 29 FPTS in six of the last eight races overall. And thanks to his 30th-place qualifying effort here at Richmond on Friday, he only needs to finish around 22nd on Saturday night to turn that into seven of the last nine. As far as the chances of that happening, we’d say they are relatively high–at least more than 50%. The #27 Chevrolet ranked 19th-fastest on the overall speed chart during Happy Hour on Friday and was 21st-best in terms of ten-lap average. Here at Richmond, Menard has ended up 22nd or better in six of the last nine events, including three of the last four. And at just $6,500 this week, he makes an excellent low-dollar option so we can afford those big dogs up top.
Aric Almirola ($6,100) – There’s a lot to like about Aric Almirola and he’s about the cheapest we’re willing to go this weekend with any ounce of confidence. Yeah, you could reach down and take a guy like David Ragan or Landon Cassill to fill out your roster, but that’s the racing world equivalent of throwing crap at a wall and seeing what sticks. Back to Almirola. This is probably his best track on the NASCAR circuit, as he owns a career average finish of 16.9 here over his nine total starts. Aric came home 4th in this race last year and that actually makes it two top 10 finishes in a row for him in the September Richmond race. He also hasn’t finished worse than 21st here since the 2012 season. On Saturday night, Almirola will roll off the grid from 23rd, so while he’s probably not going to score many place differential FPTS, he might be able to get you a mid-20s score. Down in this price range, that’s about all we can hope for.
