The second race at Richmond International Raceway is this Saturday night, and it will also be the event that concludes the Sprint Cup Series regular season. The thing Richmond is that is it technically a short track but it races like a speedway, and because of that we typically see some of the best action of the year here–at least in our opinion. In the race that was ran here back in April, it was Carl Edwards who got to victory lane after leading 151 of the 400 laps (121.25 FPTS). His teammate, Kyle Busch, finished 2nd and scored the 2nd-highest as well with 95.5 FPTS. Kevin Harvick ended up with 89.25 FPTS thanks to all of his fastest laps, despite losing a few points after starting 1st and finishing 5th.
What to Expect at Richmond 2
Assembling a roster this weekend is probably going to be a mixture of focusing on lap leaders as well as position movers. It’s not impossible to pass here at Richmond, and we’ve seen plenty of drivers come from the mid-20s and finish top 5 here. As far as lap leaders, it really depends on where the best car starts. If it’s not up front, we should see plenty of leaders, but it’s not uncommon to see a dominating performance.
Federated Auto Parts 400 Favorites
Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – The last time Kevin Harvick publicly called out his pit crew–as he did after last weekend’s race at Darlington–they got into shape and he quickly went to victory lane at Bristol. We will see something similar happen this weekend at Richmond? It wouldn’t be a surprise, that’s for sure. Harvick has been to victory lane three times here and should have a car capable of getting there once again on Saturday night. Kevin tweeted earlier this week that this #4 team is going full steam ahead for the next eleven weeks, as if he’s not already in mid-playoffs form (Harvick has six finishes of 6th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup races overall). The #4 Chevrolet has came home 5th or better in three of the last four Richmond races and should make it five of the last six here on Saturday night.
Kyle Busch ($10,600) – As expected, the two drivers that have the best chance of dominating this race are the two that will cost you the most in DraftKings. Kyle Busch is a four-time winner here at Richmond International Raceway and owns a jaw-dropping average finish of 6.9 here over his twenty-two career starts. Over the last four races here, Rowdy has finished 3rd or better three times, and he almost went to victory lane here back in April. Momentum-wise, this #18 team is in a bit of a slump, but there probably isn’t a better track on the circuit for Busch to turn things around. His top 5 finish percentage here (68.2%) is incredible.
Joey Logano ($9,700) – In our opinion, Logano is actually a bit under-priced this weekend at $9,700. This #22 team has been one of the most consistent and top performers over the last three months, as Logano picked up another top 5 finish at Darlington last weekend and now has eleven top 10s in the last thirteen Sprint Cup races overall. Here at Richmond, Joey is currently on a five-race streak of finished of 8th or better, and that includes his win here back in 2014. The only possible negative thing about Logano this weekend is that he tends to qualify very well at this race track–he has started 1st or 2nd in each of the last three events–but he has only led 165 laps over his fifteen career starts at this track. Still, the potential is very high for Logano this weekend, and at $9,700 he might prove to be quite the building block DraftKings driver on Saturday night.
“Value” Drivers to Keep an Eye On
Kasey Kahne ($7,600) – It’s not something you hear very often, but Kasey Kahne is on a roll. He grabbed his seventh top 10 finish of the season at Darlington last weekend, and that makes it four finishes of 15th or better in the last five Sprint Cup races overall for the driver of the #5 Chevrolet. Here at Richmond, Kahne has finished inside that mark in four of the last six events, and he has back-to-back top 10 finishes in the April race here–including that solid top 5 this season. The only bad news is that Kasey hasn’t had a top 10 run in the September Richmond race since the 2007 season, but that could change this weekend. He’s definitely someone to keep an eye on, especially at this price.
Jamie McMurray ($7,500) – Yep, he’s staying on our “good” list this weekend. Jamie McMurray was well on his way to a solid top 10 finish at Darlington last weekend before that late penalty, but despite that he still has three top 10s in the last four races overall, and we’re expecting another solid showing out of him on Saturday night as he punches his ticket into this year’s Chase. Jamie Mac has been one of the most consistent performers here at Richmond over the last few years, as he hasn’t finished worse than 16th at this track since early in the 2013 season. In this race last season, he started 31st and ended up finishing 13th, and when we raced here back in April, McMurray ended up 16th after starting 27th. If he has another poor qualifying effort here on Friday, he might just be an excellent pick in DraftKings on Saturday.
Aric Almirola ($6,100) – It’s probably not going to be a smart move drafting any low-dollar drivers this weekend, but Aric Almirola might end up being an exception. It was mentioned last weekend that this #43 team has essentially given up on this 2016 season and is focused on improving for the 2017 year, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The reason it’ll be worth a shot looking into Almirola this weekend is simply how he has ran here at Richmond throughout his career; over nine total starts at RIR, Aric has an average finish of 16.9 and he posted a career-best finish of 4th in this race one year ago. He also wound up 10th in the September 2014 event here, and he has ended up 17th or better in four of the last seven races here.
Other Race Notes
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Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images Starting on the pole hasn’t meant a whole lot here at Richmond, believe it or not. Four of the last six pole winners here have led 63 laps or less, which is a pretty staggering number considering these RIR races are 400 laps.
- Will we see a dominating performance here on Saturday night? If past trends continue, we probably will. Matt Kenseth won last year’s Federated Auto Parts 400 after leading 352 of the 400 laps, and Brad Keselowski won this event in 2014 after leading 383 total laps.
- Don’t expect overtime this weekend: only one of the last fifteen Richmond races have gone past the scheduled 400-lap distance.
- Phoenix is somewhat comparable to Richmond, and because of that we have included this year’s race at Phoenix in the races below.
Richmond (April 2016) Results
- Carl Edwards
- Kyle Busch
- Jimmie Johnson
- Kasey Kahne
- Kevin Harvick
- Denny Hamlin
- Matt Kenseth
- Joey Logano
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Kurt Busch
Phoenix (March 2016) Results
- Kevin Harvick
- Carl Edwards
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Busch
- Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
- Kurt Busch
- Matt Kenseth
- Chase Elliott
- Austin Dillon
- Ryan Blaney
Richmond (September 2015) Results
- Matt Kenseth
- Kyle Busch
- Joey Logano
- Aric Almirola
- Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
- Denny Hamlin
- Jeff Gordon
- Brad Keselowski
- Jimmie Johnson
- Clint Bowyer
