Well, we were going to get a little gift this weekend in the form of seeing practice before locking down, but thanks to Hurricane Hermine, all on-track activity for Friday at Darlington was cancelled, and instead we had two practice sessions on Saturday and no qualifying. That means that the Southern 500 starting order will be set by the rule book and Kevin Harvick will be on the pole. What will be interesting to see is how some of the drivers mired back in the teens–like Kyle Larson and Tony Stewart, for example–plan to get track position on race day.
Even with Joey Logano’s disappointing 10th-place finish, we still had a very nice score at Michigan last weekend with 377 points. That bumped our official Fantasy Racing Online Yahoo! team back up to the 75th percentile. That is actually our best weekly score this season and the highest since the Phoenix race back in March when we scored 364 points.
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Darlington
Our two A Group drivers are Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, and we’re more than confident with starting either one of those. However, we’re going to roll with Denny Hamlin here on Sunday night, and for a couple of reasons. The first is that the #11 Toyota is bad-to-the-bone fast this weekend. Denny had the 2nd-best ten-lap average in Practice #1 on Saturday and wound up 9th on that chart in Happy Hour. Also, while it’s not a huge deal, we’re down to 5 starts left with Kevin Harvick. If we want to use him a lot during the Chase, it’d be nice to have all five. Meanwhile, we have 8 starts left with Denny Hamlin. Also, while Harvick may have the better track position to start this year’s Southern 500, we really think Hamlin is going to be one of the guys to beat at the end.
As we questioned in our Yahoo! Rankings and Strategy Picks post earlier this week, is Jimmie Johnson back into his groove? It sure seems like it. The #48 Chevrolet was fastest in Practice #1 on Saturday morning and wound up 3rd on the Happy Hour speed chart. He has three top 5s in the last four Darlington races and could grab another here on Sunday night. The Penske drivers (Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano) didn’t show a whole lot of speed in Practice #1 but Keselowski was the fastest in Happy Hour and should be a solid top 10 car on Sunday night. Logano might struggle a little bit more at the beginning but, as usual, will be there at the end. The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas all have a bunch of long-run speed but aren’t great on the short run, which is why Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth didn’t rank high on the practice charts on Saturday. However, Kyle Busch has top 5 potential for Sunday night’s Southern 500 and Kenseth might be able to grab a top 10.
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Denny Hamlin, (2) Jimmie Johnson, (3) Kevin Harvick, (4) Brad Keselowski, (5) Kyle Busch, (6) Joey Logano, (7) Matt Kenseth, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Darlington
Our initial plan this weekend was to start Jamie McMurray no matter what, but after the practice sessions were held on Saturday, our confidence in the #1 Chevrolet is the lowest it has been in quite a while. Jamie has ended up between 14th and 16th in each of the last three races here at Darlington Raceway, and while it is certainly possible that he finishes around there here on Sunday night, it’s nowhere near a guarantee. McMurray was 18th in ten-lap average during the first practice on Saturday and wound up 27th on that chart in Happy Hour. Not good.
On the other hand, Kyle Larson looks to have a great long run car this weekend, as he ranked 7th on the Happy Hour ten-lap average chart after not doing any long runs in the first practice session. He has made two career starts here at Darlington and has came away with finishes of 8th and 10th. We’re down to 3 starts left with Larson, though, and we’d really like to save those for times when he can win. Still, this #42 team is on fire right now, and you never know how much the track is going to change once the cars get on there during the night.
Our other two B Group drivers for Darlington are Carl Edwards–who won this race last season–and Tony Stewart. The #19 Toyota is really fast this weekend, and anytime Edwards shows up on all of the ten-lap average charts (like he did this weekend), you know he has a good race car. He starts 3rd and could contend for the win again. Stewart, on the other hand, didn’t show a whole lot of speed on Saturday but should be a top 15 car on Sunday night. The only thing that concerns us is lack of speed over the last two weeks, but Smoke likes this track and hasn’t finished worse than 15th at Darlington since the 2010 season. The decision of who to start on Sunday night is going to be one we have to put a lot of thought into, but right now we’re leaning toward Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart as our two B Group drivers this week.
EDIT: We’re going with Carl Edwards and Kyle Larson this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. has top 5 speed once again this weekend but it’s going to come down to whether or not this #78 team can go a whole race without making a mistake. They cost themselves a potential win at Michigan last weekend. At worst, though, Truex should be a top 10 car on Sunday night. Kasey Kahne showed a bunch of speed in Happy Hour and actually runs pretty well here at “The Lady in Black.” If we had him on our team, we’d be starting him this weekend. He has high teens potential here on Sunday night. Another driver that was really fast in Happy Hour was Greg Biffle, as the #16 Ford had the best ten-lap average in that final session. Obviously starting him this weekend is going to bring with it a whole bunch of risk, but Darlington is a good track for The Biff and this is the most speed we’ve seen him have in a long time. The reliable pick in this group is Ryan Newman, who starts 14th and should end up somewhere in the teens as well. He has finished 13th or better in six of the last seven Darlington races.
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Martin Truex, Jr. (3) Kyle Larson, (4) Tony Stewart, (5) Kasey Kahne, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Greg Biffle, (8) Jamie McMurray, (9) Austin Dillon, (10) Paul Menard, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (13) A.J. Allmendinger, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) Casey Mears, (17) Clint Bowyer
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Darlington
Non-start savers got a pretty nice gift this week when it was announced that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. will be out for the rest of the season. Jeff Gordon and Alex Bowman will complete the rest of the races in the #88 Chevrolet, so at least there’s some viable options moving forward for those that are low (or out) of Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney starts. Our Fantasy Racing Online team is sitting with 7 Blaney starts left and 3 Elliott starts left, and because of that we are leaning toward starting Ryan Blaney over Jeff Gordon at Darlington on Sunday night. Another reason is the fact that the #21 Ford had better speed in both practice sessions on Saturday than that #24 Chevrolet, at least in terms of one fast lap. Also, we have some room to make up before the end of the season, and being different is one way to accomplish that. Over half of all Yahoo! teams have Jeff Gordon on them this weekend, and a large percentage are going to be starting him. We’re going to dare to be different and start Ryan Blaney in this year’s Bojangles’ Southern 500.
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Jeff Gordon, (3) Ryan Blaney, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) Regan Smith, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Brian Scott, the rest
