With qualifying for the Bojangles’ Southern 500 cancelled, that means the starting lineup for Sunday night’s race is going to be set by the rule book (owners points) and Kevin Harvick will be on the pole. This presents some nice opportunities for drivers to work their way toward the front on race day (or night), but that also means that there are going to be some drivers starting up front that will slide down the running order as the race goes on. There are five drivers priced at $10,000 or above this weekend, so putting together a good Southern 500 team is going to come down to which mid-tier drivers fill out your roster the best. Of course, that means avoiding the correct ones as well.
Once again, our categories for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Darlington Southern 500
Kurt Busch ($8,800) – Lately, Kurt Busch can be counted on for a finish between 10th and 12th, but not much more–and that’s not going to change this weekend. Over the last eleven Southern 500 races here at Darlington raceway, he has just one top 5 finish, and that is half of his career total here. In nineteen starts here at “The Lady in Black,” Kurt owns an average finish of just 17.3, and while he should be able to finish better than that here on Sunday night, that doesn’t make him a viable option for your DraftKings rosters. Due to qualifying being cancelled, the #41 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 4th once the green flag waves, and while track position is important at this track, the #41 team has never really capitalized on that particular aspect this season. It’s going to be difficult for Kurt Busch to crack 30 FPTS here on Sunday night, so don’t let his lower-than-normal price point of $8,800 suck you into the trap of drafting him.
Joey Logano ($10,000) – Coming into this weekend, we were on the fence about Joey Logano. This #22 Ford has been pretty fast as of late, but his record here at Darlington isn’t the best (20.3 average finish over seven career starts). However, Logano posted a career-best 4th-place finish in last year’s Southern 500, so there was a little bit of hope for the kid. However, all of that hope went out the window after the two practice sessions on Saturday. Logano ended up just 15th on the overall speed chart in Practice #1 and didn’t even make it on the ten-lap average chart for that session, which is a huge red flag. In Happy Hour, he dropped down to 22nd-fastest on the overall speed chart, but he was just 25th when it came to ten-lap average. We don’t doubt that crew chief Todd Gordon can make this car “right” for Sunday night’s race, but we’re not going to take the chance and find out. Also, we can’t see Joey Logano finishing top 5 this weekend, and with his 5th-place starting spot, he kind of needs to to make that $10,000 salary worth it.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Darlington Southern 500
Matt Kenseth ($9,000) – Only one of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas showed consistent speed during the practice sessions on Saturday, but they all had pretty good long run speed. Kenseth ranked 9th on the ten-lap average chart for Practice #1 but wound up 21st on that chart in Happy Hour, which isn’t ideal. What also isn’t ideal is how this #20 team is running right now. Kenseth hasn’t had a single-digit finish in the last four Sprint Cup races overall, and we don’t see that changing here on Sunday night. Matt is a previous winner here at “The Track Too Tough to Tame” but his career average finish of 16.3 isn’t great. With that being said, he has finished 6th or better in three of the last four races here at Darlington, and with the teams practicing during the day and racing at night, you never know what kind of comers and goers we will have. For us, however, Kenseth is a little too pricey and not very reliable this weekend, so we’re going to pass on the #20 Toyota.
Ryan Newman ($8,000) – There’s a pretty good chance that “The Rocketman” is going to have a decently high draft percentage this weekend, but you won’t find him on many of our rosters (if any). You see, Newman is very consistent here at Darlington Raceway and has finished 13th or better in six of the last seven Southern 500s. With that being said, this #31 team has took quite a step back this season, as Newman’s average finish this year is a full two positions lower than it was last season. He also hasn’t ended up better than 12th in the last five Sprint Cup races overall, and we honestly don’t really see that changing this weekend. Newman has a great history at “The Lady in Black,” yes, and he had a nice ten-lap average in Happy Hour (8th-best), but history and speed only go so far when it comes to a race at Darlington. The #31 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from the 14th-place starting spot on Sunday night, and while it wouldn’t surprise us if Newman ended up in that same position when the checkered flag waves, we think there are much better options available in DraftKings this weekend–at least with higher upside.
“Flat-Out Avoid” DraftKings Drivers for the Darlington Southern 500
Paul Menard ($7,100) – The #27 team had a couple of great practice sessions this weekend (top 10 speed in both), and when you combine that with Menard’s place differential FPTS potential (he starts 24th), you know there are going to be plenty of DraftKings rosters with the #27 Chevrolet on them. Don’t make that mistake. Paul Menard is notorious for looking better than he actually is, especially here at Darlington. In the last two Southern 500s, Paul has started 12th and 11th but ended up finishing 26th and 41st, respectively. Additionally, in nine career starts here at “The Track Too Tough to Tame,” Menard has just two top 15 finishes and an overall average result of 25.9. Finally, in the last eight Sprint Cup races overall, the #27 team has just one finish better than 18th, and that’s probably not going to change this weekend.
