DraftKings NASCAR Darlington Southern 500 Preview

Darlington Raceway is one of the most unique race tracks that the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series visits, and because of that, it’s usually only the top drivers that consistently run well here. Nicknamed “The Lady in Black,” Darlington is a 1.366-mile venue with a long and wide turns 1 and 2, and then a close and tight turns 3 and 4. We saw Kyle Larson get his first Cup win at Michigan last weekend, but chances are we’re not going to see any Chase bubble drivers end up in victory lane here on Sunday night in the 2016 Bojangles’ Southern 500. The Cup Series only races here once per season, and looking at the race last year–which was the first late summer race at Darlington since 2004–Brad Keselowski (110.5 FPTS) led over half of the race but it was Carl Edwards who got to victory lane (74.25 FPTS). The next highest-scoring DraftKings driver that night was Denny Hamlin with 68.75 FPTS.

What to Expect at Darlington

This is called “The Track Too Tough to Tame” for a reason. Darlington not only requires a good race car but also a good driver. The most skilled racers will definitely have an advantage here on Sunday night. Track position is also going to be important this weekend, just as it was at Michigan. Don’t be surprised to see teams gamble with fuel and/or tires on Sunday night to get to the front.

Bojangles’ Southern 500 Favorites

Denny Hamlin ($9,600) – Heading into the race weekend, this is a very nice price for Denny Hamlin. He’s the 7th-highest-priced driver for Darlington but should be one of the top scoring. In ten career starts at “The Lady in Black,” Denny has an incredible average finish of 6.5 with five top 5s (50%) and one victory (back in 2010). He’s finished 3rd or better in three of the last four races at this track, and as far as momentum goes, there’s nobody else in the Sprint Cup garage that is rattling off finishes like this #11 team; with Hamlin’s 9th-place finish at Michigan last week, he now has six straight results inside that mark and an average finish of 5.5 over the last six Sprint Cup races overall. At $9,600, it’s looking like Denny Hamlin is going to be a driver to build your roster around on Sunday night.

Kevin Harvick ($10,600) – The #4 team probably has Darlington figured out more than the other Sprint Cup teams right now, and that could mean a big FPTS night out of Harvick here on Sunday. Kevin had a dominating performance here at “The Lady in Black” back in 2014, leading 238 total laps en route to his win from the pole. In this race last season, he started 3rd, finished 5th, and led a total of 44 laps–scoring 65 FPTS in the process (4th-most in the race). Currently Harvick is on a three-race streak of top 5 finishes here at Darlington and has five top 6 finishes in the last six Sprint Cup races overall as well. We expect him to add one to each of those here in Sunday night’s Bojangles’ Southern 500.

Kyle Busch ($10,400) – Right now, Kyle Busch isn’t really getting the finishes he deserves, and it’s hurting all Fantasy NASCAR players. However, we can’t take away the fact that Rowdy has the best average driver rating over the last six Sprint Cup races (at 113.6). As mentioned before, Darlington is a track that requires an immense amount of skill to be successful at, and when you think of overall driving talent, Kyle Busch has to be near the top of your list. Here at “The Track Too Tough to Tame,” Rowdy is currently on a four-race streak of finishes 7th or better and has led a total of 591 laps here in his eleven career starts. That total of laps is good enough for 3rd-best among active drivers, behind only Jeff Gordon (1,744) and Greg Biffle (718). Look for the #18 team to get back on track this weekend at Darlington, but whether or not Busch is worth that large salary will come down to qualifying position and how fast his Toyota is this weekend. Stay tuned.

“Value” Drivers to Keep an Eye On

Jamie McMurray ($7,400) – And another races passes with Jamie McMurray getting the finish in his quest to make the Chase on points. The #1 team has now ended up inside the top 10 in four of the last six Sprint Cup races and is tied for the 3rd-best average finish of all drivers over that span (11.5). Yeah, we could barely believe that either. Here at Darlington, McMurray is a consistent finisher and has wound up 16th or better in five of the last six events. He doesn’t have many great performances here–his best was in 2010 when he started on the pole, led 71 laps, and finished 2nd–but when you get down in these mid-tier drivers, you’re not really expecting the world. Unless he qualifies up front this weekend, McMurray should be a nice option in DraftKings on Sunday night.

A.J. Allmendinger ($6,800) – Speaking of momentum, A.J. Allmendinger has now finished 15th or better in each of the last four Sprint Cup races. Even better is that he has scored an average of 40.7 FPTS in DraftKings over the last three. So the question now becomes whether or not Allmendinger will be able to continue this little hot streak he is on. Darlington is a track that requires discipline out of the driver and perfection on every lap (to keep the car off the wall). That’s not typically words you use to describe A.J. Allmendinger. With that being said, he has finished 23rd and 15th in the last two Darlington races, so the potential is definitely there, we’ll just have to see how qualifying and practice play out on Friday and Saturday.

Regan Smith ($5,300) – The #7 Chevrolet is one car to keep an eye on this weekend. As mentioned before, Darlington takes into account the driver’s discipline and talent more than a lot of tracks, and Regan Smith has an edge over quite a few drivers in those categories this weekend. “The Lady in Black” is the site of Regan’s only Sprint Cup Series win (back in 2011) and his career average finish of 17.7 over six total starts here is actually quite impressive. The last time Smith ran here was in 2013, and he started 27th and finished 24th in the #51 Phoenix Racing car. If he qualifies in the mid-30s for Sunday night’s Bojangles’ Southern 500, Smith will be a viable option in DraftKings this weekend.

Other Race Notes

• 

  Jeff Gordon is back in the #88 Chevrolet this weekend as Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has still not been medically cleared to race. Gordon is a 7-time winner here at Darlington and has posted a total of nineteen top 5s in thirty-five career starts here (54.3%).

• The Sprint Cup Series only visits Darlington Raceway once per season, and because of the uniqueness of the track, it’s hard to compare it with any other races. Track history and momentum–along with practice speeds and qualifying–will be more important than normal this weekend.
• The schedule this weekend isn’t ideal. There are two practice sessions on Friday afternoon and then qualifying on Saturday at 1:45 pm ET. Other than that, there’s nothing. Analyzing ten-lap averages during those practices will be much more beneficial than looking at individual lap times.

Darlington 2015 Results 

1. Carl Edwards
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Joey Logano
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Kurt Busch
7. Kyle Busch
8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
9. Martin Truex, Jr.
10. Kyle Larson

Darlington 2014 Results 

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Greg Biffle
6. Kyle Busch
7. Jeff Gordon
8. Kyle Larson
9. Tony Stewart
10. Ryan Newman

Darlington 2013 Results 

1. Matt Kenseth
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Kyle Busch
7. Carl Edwards
8. Juan Montoya
9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
10. Ryan Newman

It is obviously difficult to accurately predict which drivers will score the most in DraftKings before seeing practice and, more importantly, qualifying. Check back here again on Saturday for our Drivers to Target and Drivers to Avoid for Sunday night’s Bojangles’ Southern 500.