The annual Bojangles’ Southern 500 is this weekend at Darlington Raceway, and this race is probably going to play out a lot like Michigan did last weekend. Eight of the top 10 qualifiers in last week’s race ended up finishing inside the mark as well, and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if that statistic is replicated here at “The Lady in Black” on Sunday night. In last year’s Southern 500, seven of the top 10 finishers started inside that mark. In addition to track position being a big deal here at Darlington, so is talent. The cream rises to the top here, that’s for sure. Darlington isn’t called “The Track Too Tough To Tame” for no reason. One thing to note this week is that from 2005 to 2014, this race was always ran in the early part of the season, with last year’s Southern 500 being the first late-summer race here in eleven years.
EDIT: All on-track activity for Friday has been cancelled. There will be two practice sessions on Saturday, but no qualifying–the field will be set according to the owners points standings, and Kevin Harvick will be on the pole. There will be no qualifying bonus points.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Ranking for Darlington
Denny Hamlin (8 starts remaining) – Consistency has never been one of Denny Hamlin’s strengths but he’s been consistent as hell for the last month-and-a-half now. Over the six Sprint Cup races during that span, the #11 Toyota hasn’t finished worse than 9th and has a series-best 5.5 average finish. That’s also Hamlin’s average finish over the last six races that we have ran here at Darlington Raceway. Statistically, this is Denny’s best track on the circuit, as he has a career average result of 6.5 over ten total starts and one trip to victory lane (back in 2010). Four of the last six races here have ended with him finishing 3rd or better, and with the way this #11 team has been running lately, Hamlin just might make it five of the last seven here on Sunday night. This is an excellent weekend to use one of our 8 remaining Hamlin starts.
Kevin Harvick (5 starts remaining) – In case Denny Hamlin looks off this weekend, we have our heavy hitter backup: Kevin Harvick. In his first sixteen career starts here at Darlington Raceway, Harvick posted just two top 5 finishes, but in the last three races here he has wound up 5th or better in each event and that includes his dominating win here in 2014. The Chase is looming and that means that this #4 team needs to get into their post-season form, and the easiest way to do that is with a great run here at Darlington on Sunday night. We will be thoroughly surprised if Kevin Harvick doesn’t finish inside the top 5 here on Sunday night. Momentum-wise, he has ended up 6th or better in five of the last six Sprint Cup races overall.
Has Jimmie Johnson finally gotten back into his groove? The #48 team ran a great race at Michigan and that makes it two weeks in a row of solid finishes for the six-time champion. The real test will come this weekend. Johnson is a three time winner at Darlington and has ended up 4th or better in three of the last four races here. Brad Keselowski is very hit or miss at this race track but that #2 team is racing very well lately. He should be a top 5 threat on Sunday night and still might make our Darlington roster. Kyle Busch is good but not great here; in eleven career starts at “The Lady in Black,” Rowdy has just two top 5s, although one of those was a win (back in 2008). Joey Logano‘s record here is terrible (20.3 average finish) but he wound up a career-best 4th here last season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him challenging for the win this weekend as well.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Denny Hamlin, (3) Brad Keselowski, (4) Kyle Busch, (5) Joey Logano, (6) Jimmie Johnson, (7) Matt Kenseth, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Ranking for Darlington
Kyle Larson (3 starts remaining) – Yes, we’re down to 3 starts left with Kyle Larson, but it’s setting up for him to have another great race here on Sunday. The #42 team is running right there with the best of them right now, and with them finally getting that win, it’s taking a whole lot of pressure off of them so they can simply focus on racing. And while it’s possible that Larson is only going to get better as we start the playoffs, it’s very difficult to pass on him when he starts to get this type of momentum. Additionally, in two career starts here at Darlington, Larson has posted finishes of 8th and 10th, and should be at least a top 10 threat in this year’s Bojangles’ Southern 500 as well. If you have 4 or more Larson starts left, we think he has to be on your roster. With just 3 left, we might end up saving him, but as of now he’s on our Darlington team.
Carl Edwards (4 starts remaining) – The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas were a step behind everyone else at Michigan but that’s not going to be the case here at Darlington this weekend. Cousin Carl is the defending winner of this race and has finished 7th or better in four of the last five races at this track. His average finish over twelve career starts here is 11.6, which is just a notch behind Jeff Gordon’s 11.5. Overall, Edwards has posted eight top 10 finishes at Darlington (66.7%), four of which were also top 5s (33.3%). For the record, since we have just 4 Carl starts remaining, we only plan on starting him if he can win or if we absolutely have to.
Tony Stewart (5 starts remaining) – Smoke has now had two terrible races in a row, but Darlington has been a pretty good track for him during his storied career and the #14 team should be able to bounce back this weekend. Over Stewart’s twenty-three career starts here at “The Track Too Tough to Tame,” he has posted twelve top 10s (52.2%) and an average result of 12th–which is 6th-best among active drivers. Stewart has never been to victory lane here, and he probably won’t win this weekend, but we’ll be more than happy to get a top 10 finish out of Smoke in his final Darlington start.
Jamie McMurray (6 starts remaining) – We’re staying on this Jamie McMurray train until it gets cold. The #1 team came home with another top 10 finish at Michigan last weekend and have now wound up inside that mark in four of the last six Sprint Cup races overall. For comparison, only five drivers have at least four finishes inside that mark over the last month-and-a-half. Here at Darlington, McMurray doesn’t have a stellar record (five top 10 finishes in fifteen career starts) but he has ended up between 14th and 16th in each of the last three events here. With the way this team is running right now, we wouldn’t be surprised if the #1 Chevrolet came home around 12th or so in this year’s Bojangles’ Southern 500.
If we decide to not go with Kyle Larson this weekend, Kasey Kahne is going to replace him. He has four poles here in thirteen career starts and finished 12th in this race one year ago. We’re still sitting with 4 Martin Truex, Jr. starts left for the rest of the year, and we’re (obviously) trying to save those for the Chase. There’s no doubt that the #78 Toyota is going to have a bunch of speed this weekend, it’s just whether or not he gets the finish. Truex has just one top 5 finish here at Darlington in ten career starts, and we’re crossing our fingers he doesn’t get another one (from a purely selfish point of view). His career average finish of 12.7 is quite impressive, though. Austin Dillon finished 16th at Michigan last weekend with a junk car and has now wound up inside that mark in seven of the last eight Sprint Cup races. He finished 11th here at Darlington during his rookie year. A.J. Allmendinger is a nice sleeper this week, as he ended up with his fourth-straight top 15 finish at Michigan last week. His career-best finish at “The Lady in Black” is also 15th, and that came two years ago. One guy to keep an eye on this week is Greg Biffle, who is going to be gambling and doing whatever he can to steal a win before the Chase starts. He finished 5th here in 2014 and has wound up 13th or better in five of the last seven Darlington races. Choosing to start him on Sunday night is going to take a lot of guts, though, because the #16 Ford rarely looks worthy of a start.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Martin Truex, Jr., (4) Tony Stewart, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Kasey Kahne, (8) Austin Dillon, (9) Greg Biffle (10) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (11) A.J. Allmendinger, (12) Aric Almirola, (13) Paul Menard, (14) Trevor Bayne, (15) Danica Patrick, (16) Casey Mears, (17) Clint Bowyer
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Ranking for Darlington
We’re going for the experience heading into the Bojangles’ Southern 500 race weekend, and that means Jeff Gordon (6 starts remaining). He’s only a seven time winner here. Both Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney ran in this race one year ago and they each had pretty miserable days, finishing 41st and 30th, respectively. This season in the #88 Chevrolet, Jeff Gordon has been a pretty reliable top 15 finisher, and he has wound up inside the top 10 in nine of his last twelve Darlington starts. As far as his car goes, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has finished inside the top 10 in the last three races here at “The Track too Tough to Tame,” so Gordon and crew should have a decent baseline setup this weekend. As far as our second C Group pick, we’re going to put Ryan Blaney (7 starts remaining) just so we’re not tempted to use one of our final 3 Chase Elliott starts on Sunday night. As far as the rest of the C Group goes, Chris Buescher is the default #4 pick here, and if you want a deep sleeper for this weekend, check out Regan Smith. He actually has a win here at Darlington and has an average finish of 17.7 at this track over six career starts. Obviously his equipment has to be questioned but Regan Smith has ended up 26th or better in four of the last five Sprint Cup races overall.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Jeff Gordon, (2) Chase Elliott, (3) Ryan Blaney, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) Regan Smith, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) David Ragan, (8) Brian Scott, the rest
