After dominating the Xfinity race on Saturday and winning the pole for Sunday’s Sprint Cup race, Kyle Busch is the heavy favorite at +350 to win the 2016 Crown Royal Presents the Combat Wounded Coalition 400 at the Brickyard. One interesting thing to note is that the favorites haven’t actually gone on to win many races this season, but we agree with Vegas that the #18 Toyota is the car to beat. Carl Edwards–who starts 2nd–comes in next at +650, followed by Kevin Harvick at +800 and Denny Hamlin at +850. There’s a small chance of rain for today’s race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but we don’t see it affecting the race much at all.
Race Day Betting Picks for the Indy Brickyard Combat Wounded Coalition 400
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 11:15 am ET on July 24, 2016 and came from Bovada.
BET OF THE DAY: Kevin Harvick Top 5 Finish (+105) – This line seems a little fishy to us considering Harvick is 3rd on the favorites list to win today, but you simply can’t pass up this kind of value. Forget Bet of the Day, this is Bet of the Month. The #4 Chevrolet is strong enough to win today’s race at The Brickyard, but it’s going to take a strong effort from the pit crew to accomplish that. But top 5? The only way Kevin Harvick doesn’t finish there is if something big goes wrong, and we’re willing to put up a good amount of money to say that it doesn’t. Harvick has kissed the bricks before (back in 2003) and finished 3rd in this race one year ago. He was also inside the top 5 in both practice sessions this weekend and will roll off the grid from lucky number 7 today. He should run near or in the top 5 all day long, too.
Jimmie Johnson to Win (+950) – This is some great value for a four-time Brickyard winner, and chances are it is influenced by Jimmie Johnson’s terrible streak he is on–just one top 10 finish since April. We’d have to go back in check but it wouldn’t be out of this world to say that this is the worst string of finishes that he’s ever put together over that long of a span. However, this is Jimmie Johnson we’re talking about–he can win any week–and that’s why we’re putting some money on him to win today’s race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Not only does he have those four career victories here at The Brickyard, but heading into Saturday’s qualifying session, he was probably one of the favorites in many people’s eyes. This #48 Chevrolet was fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and ranked 7th on the Happy Hour speed chart with the 4th-best ten-lap average. Johnson failed to make the final round of qualifying this week and will roll off the grid from 13th when today’s race goes green, but he has a car capable of contending as long as he can get track position. If you’re not convinced JJ can get to victory lane today, we’d recommend putting some money on him for a Top 5 Finish (+125).
Matt Kenseth (+120) over Brad Keselowski – For the second race in a row, the betting matchups aren’t very good. This is one that we like, though. Admittedly, the #20 Toyota hasn’t looked that great this weekend, but let’s take a step back and realize that both practice sessions were held before qualifying, so we have no way of knowing which laps were ran in qualifying trim or race trim, and with such a limited number of drivers making any long runs during practices, it’s hard to put a lot of faith in those numbers. What we can put faith in, however, is history at this track, and Matt Kenseth has the advantage here with four finishes of 7th or better in the last five Brickyard races. Brad Keselowski, on the other hand, has never finished better than 9th here in his six career starts. The Penske Fords haven’t impressed us very much this weekend either. The other three Gibbs Toyotas, however, have blazing fast speed, and we don’t believe that it’s possible that the #20 car is that far off of them. Keselowski has the starting position advantage today (5th to Kenseth’s 18th) but don’t forget about this stat: over the last five years, only an average two of every top 5 qualifier ended up finishing inside the top 10 here at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
