Races at Sonoma are very tricky from a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, which means they’re equally as tricky from a betting perspective. We look at these road course races somewhat like a restrictor plate event, so it’s worth putting down some money on a long shot or two. There’s only a few drivers that we can confidently proclaim will finish up front at Sonoma, unlike other races where we know who will be fighting for the win. This race is all about track position and strategy, and because of that the best car might not win. Oh, and tire wear might factor into the equation today as well. It should be a fun race to watch, and that’s about all we can guarantee.
Race Day Betting Picks for the Sonoma Toyota/Save Mart 350
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 11:30 am ET on June 26, 2016 and came from Bovada.
BET OF THE DAY: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Top 5 Finish (+250) – When Mark Martin was racing, one thing you could always count on was his honesty. If you listened to his interviews before the race, you knew what kind of car he had. He’d straight up tell you if his car was just “decent,” as opposed to most drivers who always say they have a car that can win. Well, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has taken over as the most honest driver in the garage. He uses Twitter to comment on the race car, and after Practice #1 on Friday, Junior said the car was “incredible” while posting a picture of the average speed chart (the #88 Chevrolet was fastest). Earnhardt has said this is the best car he has had at Sonoma, and we honestly think he could challenge for the win in the Toyota/Save Mart 350 today. In case you were wondering, Junior is listed at 19-to-1 to win today, and we’re putting money on that as well. He has an average finish of 5th in the last two Sonoma races and starts 13th today, which is actually pretty good for this team.
Clint Bowyer to Win (+6600) – Clint Bowyer might have junk equipment this year, but he is still an elite level talent on this track type. And it’s not like we haven’t seen drivers have good races here at Sonoma in subpar race cars. This #15 team has improved majorly since the start of the 2016 season and are actually competing for top 20 finishes now. That should translate to at least a top 10 chance here at Sonoma, where driver talent and strategy trumps the car (in a way). As far as long-shot bets, Clint Bowyer is your best bet today at Sonoma. His career average finish of 8.6 here is the best among the Sprint Cup drivers, and if he can get track position late in the race, he just might be able to pull this one off. It’s about his only shot to get to victory lane this season.
Kevin Harvick to Win (+1900) – When else are you going to get this type of return on a potential Kevin Harvick win? Probably never. The main thing “Happy” has going against him this weekend at Sonoma is his qualifying effort: 25th. With that being said, that #4 Chevrolet is one of the best cars in the field over the long run, and it’s not like Harvick hasn’t had success at this track before: he grabbed his fourth top 5 finish at Sonoma last season. To get to the front on Sunday, the #4 team is going to have to employ a perfect strategy, but Rodney Childers is one of the crew chiefs that can do just that. If Harvick can get up there with the leaders, he can definitely out-race them to take home his first Sonoma win.
BONUS BET OF THE DAY: Casey Mears over Danica Patrick (EVEN) – Danica had her best qualifying effort of the season this weekend (11th), but unfortunately for her, starting position doesn’t mean a whole lot here at Sonoma. Her best finish in the Sprint Cup Series here is 18th, and that came back in the 2014 season when she also qualified 11th. You might be surprised that we’re so sure about Casey Mears in this matchup, but he’s actually a pretty good road course racer. He qualified 8th for this race last season but had mechanical issues and finished 38th. In the three previous Sonoma races, Mears ended up 13th, 16th, and 15th. Barring another mechanical issue, he should definitely finish better than Danica on Sunday.
