One of the items of interest at Michigan International Speedway this weekend is the new aerodynamic package that NASCAR is testing. Both NASCAR and the drivers are confident that this package will promote passing during the FireKeepers Casino 400 race on Sunday, which is something that we didn’t exactly see much of when we last ran here in the fall. Some drivers even think that this could be one of the best races of the season, and we hope they’re right. With increased passing comes more opportunities for place differential points, which are what drive a good score in this FOX Fantasy Auto game. A lot of the same drivers finish up front on a consistent basis at Michigan, and if you’re looking for a similar race to analyze, Fontana is also a 2-mile track and we ran there back in March.
SPECIAL: Because there are so many potentially good driver selections this weekend, we’re giving you TWO rosters to choose from in this post. We haven’t decided which one we’re going to use, but we’re leaning toward the first.
Our Fantasy Racing Online FOX team had a good race going at Pocono last week until Kyle Busch had his problems and Jimmie Johnson–who we put on our roster after taking off race winner Kurt Busch–hit the wall. Martin Truex, Jr. getting damage on pit road didn’t help much either. We scored 122 points at “The Tricky Triangle” so we’re obviously looking for a big bounce back here at Michigan. Our team sits in 926th place overall and 3rd in our private league after 14 of 36 races.
FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for the Michigan FireKeepers Casino 400
Brad Keselowski ($11,300) – If there’s one thing we know about the two Penske cars, it’s that if one of them is fast, so is the other. Brad Keselowski qualified 15th for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 while Joey Logano ended up on the pole. The latter may be in a better position to start the race, but we’re expecting both the #2 and #22 Fords to be close to each other when the checkered flag waves on Sunday. Michigan International Speedway is Brad Keselowski’s home race track but he hasn’t been to victory lane here…yet. Over the last two years here, the Blue Deuce has been one of the most solid Fantasy NASCAR picks here at MIS, as Keselowski hasn’t finished worse than 9th over that span of four races. He hasn’t quite had the car strong enough to be in position to actually win, though. That could change this weekend. The #2 Ford was 5th-fastest during Saturday morning’s practice session and ranked 2nd-fastest in Happy Hour. Momentum-wise, Keselowski has five straight top 10 finishes and four finishes of 6th or better in the last five. A 5th-place finish from BK on Sunday will net us 46 points in FOX Fantasy Auto, and we’ll be more than happy with that.
Jimmie Johnson ($10,600) – This is actually a pretty cheap price to pay for Jimmie Johnson in the FOX Fantasy Auto game, and that combined with the fact that he starts 16th almost makes him a must-start this weekend. Don’t forget that the #48 Chevrolet went to victory lane at the other 2-mile race track that we’ve ran at this season (Fontana), and Jimmie also won this exact race here at Michigan two years ago. In Practice #2 on Saturday morning, Johnson had the best ten-lap average and posted the 8th-fastest lap. In Happy Hour, he was 3rd in overall speed and 5th in ten-lap average. So you know there’s plenty of speed in this car. Our big concern this weekend is the fact that Johnson has just two top 10s in the last seven Michigan races as well as five finishes of 17th or worse in the last seven Sprint Cup races overall. However, like we said earlier, you’re not going to find much more value in this price range at Michigan this weekend.
Matt Kenseth ($10,300) – The #20 Toyota is much better than 19th, which is where this team qualified on Friday. With his 7th-place finish at Pocono last weekend, Kenseth now has five top 10 finishes in the last six Sprint Cup races and is finally hitting that consistency stride that was elusive in the first part of the season. Here at Michigan, Matt is a three-time winner, with the most recent victory coming in the fall race last season–one which he pretty much dominated. He also ended up 4th in the spring race here. Kenseth has a career average finish of 10.2 at Michigan International Speedway, which is good enough for 2nd-best among all active drivers. He has posted twenty top 10s in thirty-three career starts (60.6%), and we’ll gladly take a finish like that here on Sunday. Speed-wise, Matt has the car to do it, as he ranked 4th in ten-lap average during Saturday’s morning session and 11th on that chart in Happy Hour.
Paul Menard ($6,500) – Well, to be honest with you, Paul Menard was very underpriced for the Michigan race this weekend, and he turned into a very attractive option in the FOX Fantasy Auto game by qualifying so poorly on Friday. Michigan has–by far–been Menard’s best track on the schedule for the last couple of years, and his runs here as of late are enough to put him on any Fantasy NASCAR roster (even the ones that don’t award points on place differential). Looking at the last seven Cup races at MIS, Menard has never finished worse than 14th and he has posted five top 10s in that span (three of which were also top 5s). In the two races here last season, Paul started 17th and 24th and finished 8th and 12th, respectively. We’ll gladly take a similar run in the FireKeepers Casino on Sunday, although it might take some luck because the #27 Chevrolet was struggling to find speed during practice on Saturday. Still, Menard should still improve plenty of positions on race day.
Carl Edwards ($11,200) – Wrapping up our first FOX Fantasy Auto roster for the FireKeepers 400 at Michigan is Carl Edwards. Statistically, he’s the best driver here at MIS with an average finish of 9.7 over the course of twenty-three starts. Edwards has been to victory lane twice here at Michigan and probably had the best car in this race one year ago, but the rain kind of ruined his day and he ended up finishing 12th. Carl bounced back with a solid 6th-place finish in the fall race here last season. This weekend, the #19 Toyota ended up 11th in qualifying, so there’s some room for place differential points there. In Practice #2 on Saturday morning, Edwards posted the fastest lap and even ended up on the ten-lap average chart–something that typically only occurs at an intermediate track when he has a car that could potentially win the race. In Happy Hour, Carl didn’t light up the speed charts, but we’re not too concerned because the conditions during the race on Sunday will be more like the morning session anyway. We personally think that Cousin Carl has enough speed to win the race this weekend, but a solid top 5 finish will do. This team got their first top 10 finish in a month last week at Pocono and hopefully they can build some momentum here in the Irish Hills on Sunday.
Second FOX Fantasy Auto Roster for Michigan
Kevin Harvick ($13,500) – Wow, this is a high price to pay for Kevin Harvick in the FOX Fantasy Auto game, but he’s almost a must start this weekend. Because of some bad luck and timing during qualifying on Friday, Harvick will have to start the FireKeepers Casino 400 from the 29th starting spot. We’re not too worried about it, though, because 1) Kevin Harvick has a fast race car this weekend, and 2) he’s done this before. In Practice #2 on Saturday morning, the #4 Chevrolet was 13th on the overall speed chart but ranked 2nd where it really matters: ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, Harvick was 16th and 10th on those charts, respectively. Looking at the earlier races of the season, this #4 team started 26th at Kansas and finished 2nd, and they qualified 22nd at Texas and ended up 10th at the checkered. Like we said, they’ve done this before. As far as Michigan goes, Harvick has finished 2nd in five of the last six races at this track, and that’s all you have to know about that.
Matt Kenseth ($10,300) – Please see our notes above regarding Matt Kenseth, as he was on our first roster as well. Jimmie Johnson could also be used in this spot, but as we mentioned earlier, it might not be a bad idea to stay away from the #48 in Fantasy NASCAR this weekend.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($12,000) – If you ask Dale Earnhardt, Jr. what happened in qualifying, he’ll tell you that they just flat out missed it this weekend. There’s definitely speed in the #88 Chevrolet, though. This car was fast off of the truck and that’s exactly what Junior needs right now. This #88 team has three 2nd-place finishes in the last eight Sprint Cup races, but those three are also their only top 10 finishes during that span. So you could say Junior is pretty boom or bust right now. As far as this weekend, he probably has a car good enough to challenge for the win, but Dale is going to have to overcome that 27th-place starting spot. When we hear that, we hear a bunch of place differential points coming our way. It’s not like he hasn’t done it before. Junior is a two-time winner at Michigan International Speedway and has finished 10th or better in each of the last four events here. He posted the 9th-best lap in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and wound up 6th in both overall speed and ten-lap average in Happy Hour. This #88 Chevrolet is fast, and Junior should be a very popular pick in Fantasy NASCAR leagues awarding points based on place differential.
Paul Menard ($6,500) – Please see our notes above regarding Paul Menard, as he was on our first roster as well.
Kyle Larson ($7,300) – In order for this second roster to work, you’re going to need to rely on Kyle Larson to come home with at least a top 10 finish. Is it possible? Absolutely. But at the same time it’s nowhere near a guarantee. If everything goes like we think it will on Sunday, we honestly could see the #42 Chevrolet challenging for a win before it’s all said and done. Larson almost played the rain right in this race last season but had to pit a few minutes early and ended up finishing 17th. Still, he was in position to win, and that’s important. This weekend, however, the #42 Chevrolet might be able to win without any kind of strategy. This car has been fast since the team unloaded it, qualifying 7th before posting the 7th-best lap in Practice #2 on Saturday morning as well. In Happy Hour, Larson was 8th on the overall speed chart and 7th in ten-lap average. If the high groove comes into play during the FireKeepers Casino 400 and braking in the corners is as important as NASCAR hopes it will be, watch for Kyle Larson to thrive.
