The Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 has officially been postponed until Monday afternoon, and the weather forecast looks clear so we should be able to get the full race in. This allows teams to think some more about how they’re going to dial their cars in during the race, as we only really had about an hour of actual practice this weekend. Pocono is a very unique race track and the races here typically come down to some sort of strategy and luck. From a betting perspective, that can make it tricky, but there are some plays that are worth putting some money on this weekend–err, weekday.
After coming into the race weekend as the favorite, Martin Truex, Jr. is now the 6th-most-favored driver at 8-to-1 odds. Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski are the new co-favorites for Monday’s race, but with both of them at +550 it’s clear that there really is no actual breakaway favorite. Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch follow them at 6-to-1.
Race Day Betting Picks for the Pocono Axalta 400
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 9:00 pm ET on June 5, 2016 and came from Bovada.
Kurt Busch to Win (+1200) – We have an algorithm for one of the Fantasy NASCAR games that we host here. It takes into account how the driver has done in the last six races at the current week’s track as well as the last six Sprint Cup Series races overall. There are a couple more computations done but in the end the drivers are all assigned a number value, with a lower value being better. This week, Kurt Busch was by far and away the best driver. He has an average finish of 5.8 in the last six Cup races overall and has finished 7th or better in four of the last six Pocono races. But then news broke that he would be without his crew chief this weekend and there was a little doubt in everyone’s mind. However, we have a different perspective. Maybe this substitute crew chief bring a new perspective to the team, and be a little more aggressive in strategy than Tony Gibson? You never know. The #41 Chevrolet is strong enough to win this race, so it’s going to come down to track position and strategy for Kurt on race day. Can he get it done? We think so, and getting a driver who has been one of the strongest at Pocono as of late at 12-to-1 odds is pretty good in our book.
BET OF THE DAY: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Top 5 Finish (+200) – This was an automatic play as soon as we saw it on Sunday. Yes, the #88 Chevrolet wasn’t overly impressive during Happy Hour on Saturday, but if there’s one team in the garage area that are masters at adjusting on the car during the race, it’s Dale Junior’s group. With the wash out on Sunday, that just gives them even more time to gameplan. That’s not even taking into account that Pocono is probably Junior’s best non-restrictor plate track on the circuit right now. He swept the races here back in 2014 and has posted a top 5 finish in five of the last six events at “The Tricky Triangle.” Finally, Earnhardt will roll off the grid from 8th once the Axalta 400 finally gets started, and when he qualifies inside the top 10 it usually means that he has a very competitive car for the race.
BET TO AVOID: Ryan Blaney Top 5 Finish (+1300) – There’s some wacky lines this weekend–such as Danica Patrick Top 5 Finish +525–but this one kind of makes sense. Still, it’s basically giving away money. We by no means expect Ryan Blaney to finish inside the top 5 at Pocono on Monday, and It takes a special rookie to run well here at “The Tricky Triangle,” and ‘special rookie’ is a term that can be applied to both Blaney and Chase Elliott this season. The thing we like about Ryan is that he stays out of trouble, and with the races here at Pocono, that’s really all you need to do until the end. Then it’s all about being in the right place at the right time. Blaney was 9th-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday so there’s some speed in this #21 Ford as well.
