One thing to keep in mind this weekend is that there have been plenty of winners at Richmond International Raceway over the last four years. In fact, we haven’t had a repeat victor in the last eight races at this track. Those who have been to victory lane over that span are (from most recent on): Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Carl Edwartds, Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, and Kyle Busch. And with Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400, one of the favorites can keep that streak alive: Jimmie Johnson. The three favorites on race day are him, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch, and they’re all listed at 5-to-1 odds.
Last week at Bristol, we had a rough day overall in terms of Fantasy NASCAR, but our betting picks played out nicely (click here to see those picks). Our “Bet of The Day” cashed, bringing that pick to 4-2 overall on the season, and the Kurt Busch (+130) over Martin Truex, Jr. head-to-head bet was a nice little cash as well.
Race Day Betting Picks for the Richmond Toyota Owners 400
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 10:00 am ET on April 24, 2016 and came from Bovada.
BET OF THE DAY: Kurt Busch (-110) over Martin Truex, Jr. – We have Kurt Busch as a potential race winner today (see below), while we have Martin Truex, Jr. right outside of the top 10 heading into the Toyota Owners 400. So this seems like a no-brainer. Weirdly enough, Truex is actually favored in this matchup (-120) despite the fact that he has just three top 10 finishes in his last eleven Richmond starts. Meanwhile, Kurt Busch is the defending winner of this race and has posted four top 10s in his last six races here at RIR. Momentum-wise, Busch wins in that department as well; the only top 5 finish that Truex has this year is his 2nd-place run at Daytona, and over the last six Sprint Cup races, this #78 team has only been able to muster one finish better than 11th. The #41 crew, on the other hand, has six top 10s in the eight 2016 races that we have ran with just one result worse than 13th. Truex may have had great long run speed during practice on Saturday, but Kurt Busch was close on the speed chart, and the former tends to disappoint on race days (at least this season).
Kurt Busch (+1700) – Being able to grab Kurt Busch at 17-to-1 odds this morning was a great feeling because there’s so much to like about the #41 Chevrolet today. Not only is Kurt the defending winner of this Richmond race, but he dominated the Toyota Owners 400 last year, leading 291 of the 400 laps. Additionally, he has another fast car this time around, as Busch posted the 6th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour on Saturday and had one of the best cars on twenty- and thirty-lap runs as well. We should see long green flag runs here on Sunday so that should play well into Kurt’s hands. Also, let’s not forget that this #41 team is off to a great start in 2016, with six top 10 finishes in the first eight races. They’re also coming off their best finish of the season last week at Bristol (3rd). We have Kurt Busch as a top 5 car heading into the race today, so getting him at +1700 is awesome. NOTE: We locked in that +1700 at 9:00 am ET today, by 10:00 am Kurt Busch was at +1500.
Carl Edwards (-115) over Matt Kenseth – On one hand here we have a guy that has been the perfect example of consistency over the last twenty six Sprint Cup races. Carl Edwards has completed every single lap over all of those races and has the best average finish of any driver in the Sprint Cup series. He’s also coming off of a dominating win at Bristol and has only finished worse than 7th once in the 2016 Sprint Cup season. Matt Kenseth, meanwhile, simply can’t catch a break. He has led in all but one race this season, and that lone race is the only one that he has finished inside the top 10 (Phoenix). It’s not even surprising anymore when the #20 Toyota has trouble on race day. Edwards hasn’t ran great here at Richmond as of late but that should change here today in the Toyota Owners 400. He has a nice top 5 starting spot and looked good on the practice charts this weekend as well. Matt Kenseth starts 13th (as if he needed more bad luck) but has been good here at Richmond as of late, including a dominating win here last fall. Matt Kenseth is going to break out of his funk here soon, but even if he does today at RIR, we still think Carl Edwards finishes higher than him.
