Betting on a race at Bristol is similar to betting on a race at a restrictor plate track. There’s so much that can happen at this half-mile bull ring that it makes it incredibly difficult to try and predict how the whole race is going to play out. No driver in the Sprint Cup Series consistently finishes up front here at Bristol, so keep that in mind this week. There’s definitely a possibility for some surprise top 5 finishers in this year’s Food City 500.
Last week we had a rough go of things at Texas Motor Speedway, but there are some great head-to-head and prop bets this week that we’re jumping all over. Kyle Busch is the heavy favorite heading into the race (+350) with a surprise driver coming in at (+600) in Joey Logano. Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards, who will lead the field to the green today, are listed at 7-to-1 odds.
Race Day Betting Picks for the Bristol Food City 500
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 11:00 am ET on April 17, 2016 and came from Bovada.
BET OF THE DAY: Kevin Harvick (EVEN) over Joey Logano – Vegas is all over Joey Logano today but we don’t really agree with it. Yes, he has won the last two fall races here at Bristol, and he has finished 8th or better in each of the last four fall events here. However, Joey has never had a result better than 16th in the spring race here–ever. Now obviously this streak is going to change soon, but keep in mind that Logano is a very streaky driver. For example, this season he has rotated off-and-on with good finishes. Since Daytona, he has finished 6th or better every other week. In the other races, Logano’s best result has been 11th. If that continues today, it means he’s due for another not-so-great run. Meanwhile, we view Kevin Harvick as a sure top 5 pick today, and the #4 Chevrolet has been one of the best cars here at Bristol over the last two years, and in the August race last season, this team finally got a finish to show for it by finishing 2nd. This team is looking to get back on track after a couple of rough weeks at Martinsville and Texas, and we think that’s exactly what’s going to happen here at Bristol in the 2016 Food City 500.
Matt Kenseth Top 5 Finish (EVEN) – This is a little bit of a risky betting play because of how much bad luck this #20 team has had in 2016, and Bristol Motor Speedway is the last place you want to try and turn your season around. But we view Kenseth as a driver that has a legitimate shot at winning the Food City 500 on Sunday, and he should be at least a top 5 car all day long starting from 2nd place. Kenseth is also the defending winner of this race and has won two of the last five races in Thunder Valley. He also recently had a solid 3rd-place finish in the 2014 fall race. The #20 Toyota has had great speed all season long but hasn’t had the finishes to show for it. Hopefully this week Matt Kenseth finally breaks through and has a good run. We’re betting he will.
Kurt Busch (+130) over Martin Truex, Jr. – Try and forget about the race at Texas Motor Speedway last weekend and remember that this #78 team has been disappointing fantasy owners on a weekly basis for about two months now. Truex still only has one top 5 finish in 2016 thus far (at Daytona), despite the fact that he had one of the best cars at Atlanta (finished 7th) and the best car at Texas (finished 6th). Now we’re at Bristol Motor Speedway and this is honestly one of, if not the, worst track on the circuit for Martin. Basically what we’re doing with this bet is saying we’re but buying the fools gold that Truex is selling. He qualified 10th for this year’s Food City 500 and put up pretty decent practice times on Saturday, too. However…Truex hasn’t had a top 10 here at Bristol since the 2012 season and has barely even sniffed the top 20 for the last three years. When you look back at the Martinsville race, many expected Truex to have a good run there as well, but he never got going on race day and ended up 18th. On the other side, Kurt Busch isn’t stellar here in “Thunder Valley” but he’s a five-time winner at this track and has over-performed in most Sprint Cup races this season. He starts back in 26th but as long as he doesn’t go multiple laps down early in the race, he should end up better than Truex when it’s all said and done.
P.S. As far as betting on drivers straight up to win this year’s Food City 500, this is kind of like the race back at Phoenix. We have Kyle Busch so heavily favored on Sunday that we’re not even going to waste the time explaining why in this post. The fact that he’s down to 3.5-to-1 odds today means Vegas knows he’s probably going to win, too.
