Now that qualifying and practice are over, we have a clearer view on which drivers will be able to contend in tonight’s Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway–not that we didn’t know before. Essentially, the top three drivers here are the ones that are going to be contending for the win (as long as nothing crazy goes on during the race). Those guys are Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch. This track likes to eat up tires so it’s going to be very important for these guys to take care of their equipment on Saturday night. Additionally, this race is going to start in the late afternoon and end at night, which means the track is going to go through a transition.
Jimmie Johnson remains the favorite this weekend after starting out there as well. He’s currently listed at 4.5-to-1 odds. Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano follow him at 6-to-1 while Brad Keselowski (6.75-to-1) is in 4th.
Race Day Betting Picks for the Texas Duck Commander 500
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 12:00 pm ET on April 9, 2016 and came from Bovada.
“ALL IN” BET: Kevin Harvick (+600) – We could have sworn that we saw a tweet from the #4 team’s crew chief, Rodney Childers, and he was downright pissed off after their top 5 run at Martinsville was ruined last weekend thanks to the last set of tires put on the car. Unfortunately, we’ve either gone crazy, or that tweet has been deleted. Either way, it has to be frustrating to have such a good run be taken off the board when you’re so close to finishing. But you know what will relieve that headache in a hurry? A trip to victory lane. Although Harvick has never won here at Texas Motor Speedway, he’s been damn close as of late, and it’s bound to happen soon. The #4 Chevrolet came home 2nd and 3rd in the two races here last season and finished 2nd in the 2014 fall race as well. Tonight, Harvick is going to have to come from mid-pack to get to the front, but there’s no doubt he has the car to do it. He had one of the best ten-lap averages during final practice on Friday and there are plenty of people pointing to the #4 car as the car to beat tonight–including Jeff Gordon (see tweet here) as well as Rodney Childers (see tweet here). That second guy might be a little biased but we trust Jeff Gordon, and when the Duck Commander is all said and done tonight we think Harvick will be the guy in victory lane.
BET OF THE DAY: Carl Edwards Top 5 Finish (+120) – We’re not sure if this is a typo or what, but as soon as we saw the odds for this prop bet we jumped all over it. For some reason the odds-makers aren’t giving a lot of love to our pole sitter today and think he’s going to finish outside of the top 5. We respectfully disagree. Not only has Cousin Carl finished 7th or better in all but one race this year, but he’s the only driver to complete 100% of the laps in the last 25 Sprint Cup races, and he also has the best average finish over that span. Yes, better than every other driver. Edwards ran 5th at Atlanta earlier this year and finished 5th in the 2014 fall race here at Texas as well. This #19 team is knocking on the door of a win anytime soon, and we think they’re going to be a major contender in the Duck Commander 500 tonight. It’s worth going big on this prop bet tonight and maybe throwing some down on Edwards to straight up win as well.
Kyle Busch (+105) over Joey Logano – We have Kyle Busch ranked solidly inside the top 5 for tonight’s Duck Commander 500. This #18 team has been on absolute fire this season, and if it wasn’t for a blown tire at Fontana, Kyle Busch’s worst finish in 2016 would probably be 4th. That’s incredible. He’s also coming off of a dominating win at Martinsville last weekend, and he dominated the XFinity race here at Texas last night as well. So to say Rowdy Busch has momentum is an understatement. Meanwhile, Joey Logano has to be in a daze for just how terrible his car was last week, and this #22 Ford has been anything but a reliable pick here in 2016; Logano has as many finishes outside of the top 10 as he does inside this year. The one thing Joey does have going for him is that he starts on the outside pole, but it’s not about where you start, it’s where you finish. We’re not jumping all over this prop bet today but we are putting a little cash on the line that Kyle Busch will finish ahead of Joey Logano in the Duck Commander 500.
BET TO AVOID: Joey Logano (+600) – Has Joey Logano been an honest contender for the win at all this season? He has that 2nd-place finish at Las Vegas from a month ago, but nobody really had the #22 Ford as a major threat to win that race. That’s the only time we can think of. Anyway, somehow the odds-makers have Joey as 2nd in terms of the favorites for Saturday night’s Duck Commander 500, and tied with Kevin Harvick. Yeah, Logano did win this race back in 2014, but his last four races here have ended with the #22 Ford in 40th, 4th, and 12th. Joey will start from 2nd in tonight’s race, but we didn’t see the speed out of him during the practice sessions this weekend that would make him even a solid top 5 threat on Saturday night, let alone capable of winning. Don’t let the qualifying effort fool you, and don’t waste your money on Logano this week.
