The first four races of the 2016 Sprint Cup season have produced some excellent on-track racing action that has been good not only for our eyeballs but our bank accounts as well. Although Carl Edwards almost spoiled it last weekend at Phoenix, heavy favorite Kevin Harvick did take home the win, allowing us to collect some money at his 3-to-1 odds we locked in at earlier in the week. We did skip this Race Day Betting Picks article last week (because Harvick was the clear and pretty much only choice), but we’re back this week!
Auto Club Speedway is a large, 2-mile race track that is bumpy and worn out–similar to the conditions we saw at Atlanta a few weeks ago. Although this should produce some excellent racing, it’s kind of difficult to handicap this race. We saw Brad Keselowski take home the checkered flag last year (we luckily had him at +1200), and our initial gut reaction this weekend is that we might see a crazy ending once again. Probably not as crazy as yesterday’s Xfinity race, though (did you see that? If not, YouTube it).
Kevin Harvick jumped up to the favorite heading into today’s Auto Club 400 at +450 and is followed by Kyle Busch at +500. The driver that was the favorite earlier in the week, Jimmie Johnson, calmed down to +600 from +450 on Wednesday.
Race Day Betting Picks for Fontana
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 10:30 am ET on March 20, 2016 and came from Bovada.
BET OF THE DAY: Ryan Blaney (-130) over Kyle Larson – This is a late add for our post, as we locked it in at 1:30 pm on Sunday. This is easily the lock of the week when it comes to betting on NASCAR. In most people’s minds’ Ryan Blaney is a for-sure top 15 pick with a possible top 10 shot. Kyle Larson, meanwhile, qualified in the mid-30s, will possibly be going to a backup car because of a wreck in practice, and has had disappointing finishes all season long. The only way Ryan Blaney doesn’t finish ahead of Kyle Larson is if he has mechanical issues or something unpredictable happens. We’re going big on this bet this week.
LONG SHOT BET OF THE DAY: Martin Truex, Jr. (+1600) – The #78 team had a disappointing qualifying run on Friday and will have to start today’s Auto Club 400 from the 17th-place starting spot, but remember: it’s not where you start, it’s where you finished. Truex was probably the most consistent car on the speed chart during the two practice sessions on Friday, and he ended Happy Hour with the best ten-lap average ahead of other long shot Austin Dillon. Now, Truex has never posted a top 5 finish here at Fontana, but he ran 8th in this race one year ago and don’t forget that he had a top 3 car back at Atlanta a few weeks ago. Also, Brad Keselowski won this race a year ago, and in his previous six Auto Club starts, he never ended up better than 18th. Truex is one of the best at these fast race tracks where you can rim ride, and being able to get him at 16-to-1 odds is a steal and worth a shot.
Carl Edwards (+600) – The driver of the #19 Toyota started out the week at 10-to-1 odds and now that it’s finally Sunday, they have him down to 6-to-1. Vegas knows what’s up. The rule of thumb is that whenever Carl Edwards shows up on the ten-lap average chart at a big, intermediate track, he has a top 5 race car. Well, Fontana certainly fits that criteria, and Carl was 3rd in ten-lap average during that final practice session on Saturday. Edwards has one victory here at Fontana (back in 2008) and has to be dying to get to victory lane after coming so close at Phoenix one week ago. The #19 Toyota is definitely a top 5 car for today’s race, and with the right strategy, we could very well see this team get to victory lane. Carl finished 5th at Atlanta a few weeks ago.
Kevin Harvick (+450) – Honestly, this race already has the make up of a Kevin Harvick domination. He starts 2nd and should be able to easily get around pole sitter Austin Dillon after a few laps. Once the #4 Chevrolet takes over, is there really any other car that can flat out beat him? Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch (starting 5th and 6th) might be able to contend, but the other really fast race cars, like the #48 Chevrolet of Jimmie Johnson, start mid-pack today. Harvick last won here at Fontana in 2011 and you know he’d love to get another win at his home track for his kid. He finished 2nd in this race one year ago, and now that they’re locked into the Chase, crew chief Rodney Childers will be able to take some more gambles during the races. The #4 Chevrolet ranked 4th on both ten-lap average charts during Saturday’s practice sessions.
BET TO AVOID: Austin Dillon (+1100) – If we could go back and do it all over again, we’d time travel back to Wednesday night and throw a little bit of money on Austin Dillon at 33-to-1 odds. But, unfortunately, that technology isn’t available, so we’re just sitting here twiddling our thumbs. Austin Dillon is an excellent long shot pick today and should be used in most Fantasy NASCAR leagues, but falling for the trap of betting on him today should be considered cruel and unusual punishment. Yeah, he’s on the pole, and yes, the #3 Chevrolet looks to have close to top 5 speed, but do you really think this kid is going to win the Auto Club 400? You can get better drivers with better odds–such as Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (+1200), Denny Hamlin (+1400), and Brad Keselowski (+1600)–for today’s race, go with them instead.
